bluewave Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'm not seeing any indication of a persistent trough / cooler than average pattern on the East Coast for the foreseeable future. The next 7 days continue to look like a torch, with many days of 90F potential. Thereafter, we should have more cool airmasses intruding from the NW, but the mean ridge likely remains near the East Coast. The CFS has an above normal temperature signal for September. It could be that the departures on the warm days added up will be too great to be cancelled out by the cooler days behind the fronts with Canadian highs. So the end result would be the warm departures tipping the scale to above normal on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 The CFS has an above normal temperature signal for September. It could be that the departures on the warm days added up will be too great to be cancelled out by the cooler days behind the fronts with Canadian highs. So the end result would be the warm departures tipping the scale to above normal on the month. summaryCFSv2.NaT2mProb.201409.gif You can see the latest forecast date has the smallest area of above normal departures in the east. Hopefully any positive departures are racked up over the next few days and the rest of the month is at least normal. That would lead to a look as depicted on the August 31st map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Why do people care if September and October are warmer than average? Even the coldest winters are no guarantee for snow, see 2013-14 which featured many mixed bag events. Secondly, we had a mini KU October 2011 and that turned out to be one of the worst winters in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 11AM ROundup TEB: 82 NYC: 81 EWR: 84 LGA: 82 JFK: 79 ISP: 81 New Brnswick: 80 BLM: 75 TTN: ACY: 80 PHL: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Starting to get breaks of sun here in CNJ but still mainly cloudy from CNJ south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Think today may be pretty damn good for severe weather including me. Minimal seabreeze influence and the atmosphere is destabilizing fairly rapidly. Better shot than yesterday IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Feels and smells like Florida out here today. Sun out and temp shot upto 81 here in Monroe nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Think today may be pretty damn good for severe weather including me. Minimal seabreeze influence and the atmosphere is destabilizing fairly rapidly. Better shot than yesterday IMO I don't think today can do it. I don't see a sig trigger other than a weak surface trough for storms to get going this aft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Another great summer beach day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Clouds are building in now. Central Queens on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Why do people care if September and October are warmer than average? Even the coldest winters are no guarantee for snow, see 2013-14 which featured many mixed bag events. Secondly, we had a mini KU October 2011 and that turned out to be one of the worst winters in recent memory. I care about cool Septembers and Octobers because I like cool weather in the fall. It has nothing to do with the following winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Just had a light shower here, now the sun is back out but plenty of clouds are around. Looks it to me like a classic self destruct setup, The 15z HRRR has multiple rounds this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I care about cool Septembers and Octobers because I like cool weather in the fall. It has nothing to do with the following winter. Green leaves and 75 degrees on November 10th is one of my nightmares, though I'm ok with a blowtorch November as long as it precedes a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 1PM Roundup TEB: 87 NYC: 86 EWR: 87 LGA: 85 JFK: 83 ISP: New Brunswick: 86 BLM: 81 TTN: 83 ACY: 85 PHL: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Green leaves and 75 degrees on November 10th is one of my nightmares, though I'm ok with a blowtorch November as long as it precedes a snowy winter. I think it was 2005 and 2007 - had some tomatoes into late Oct. Im ok with blowtorch Sat Patty to Thanksgiving then it can snow black Friday to the ides of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 1PM Roundup TEB: 87 NYC: 86 EWR: 87 LGA: 85 JFK: 83 ISP: New Brunswick: 86 BLM: 81 TTN: 83 ACY: 85 PHL: 85 9-1-pm--2.gif Weird the clouds on that map look further south than on the Flanis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It's a very muggy, nasty air mass that was lacking this summer for sure and unfortunately will be here for at least the first week of September. It's not a tragedy though because the first half of September is often still very summerlike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 MOS numbers. NAM 94 and GFS 92 for Newark tomorrow: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KEWR&sta=KTEB&sta=KTTN&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Also models/ensembles have an erratic/incoherent MJO signals, next 15 days. Expect alot of volatility in the medium to long range forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I can't think of anything worse than a cold September. It's supposed to feature 70's and 80's with crisp nights and warm days. Best month of the year temperature wise. Save cold and snow for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Upto 89 here in CNJ, will be close for 90s in the metro areas of NYC ewr and LGA etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 MOS numbers. NAM 94 and GFS 92 for Newark tomorrow: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KEWR&sta=KTEB&sta=KTTN&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Also models/ensembles have an erratic/incoherent MJO signals, next 15 days. Expect alot of volatility in the medium to long range forecasts: NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif Looks like the one consistent theme is transient cools followed by ridge rebuilding. Mon-tue (9/8 - 9/9) look like a break from the warmth before heights rise and temps come back up to and above normal towards 9/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 radar looks unimpressive for 2 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 2PM Roundup: TEB: 87 NYC: 84 EWR: 89 LGA: 86 JFK: 85 ISP: 83 New Brunswick:89 BLM: 84 TTN: 85 ACY: 86 PHL: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Green leaves and 75 degrees on November 10th is one of my nightmares, though I'm ok with a blowtorch November as long as it precedes a snowy winter. 2001 and 2007 come to mind, though there are others. Terrible autumns. In hindsight I wouldn't mind if autumn was warm if we got a ton of snow in the winter but there is no way of knowing that beforehand so experiencing a warm autumn would definitely sour my mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 No heatwave for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I can't think of anything worse than a cold September. It's supposed to feature 70's and 80's with crisp nights and warm days. Best month of the year temperature wise. Save cold and snow for January. It doesn't have to be cold. But I'd like to have days in the low 70s with lows in the 50s throughout the month. Dewpoints would also have to be below 50, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 No heatwave for the city. So far 87 at the park and 86 at LGA Believe Newark touched 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 The CFS has an above normal temperature signal for September. It could be that the departures on the warm days added up will be too great to be cancelled out by the cooler days behind the fronts with Canadian highs. So the end result would be the warm departures tipping the scale to above normal on the month. summaryCFSv2.NaT2mProb.201409.gif That above normal pool along the EC really shrunk. It looks like it will be warm, but we probably won't have many 90s (except for EWR, CNJ and PHL). North of I-80 and South of the Lower Hudson Valley will be the coolest area for this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 3pm: 91 in Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 3PM Roundup: TEB: 87 NYC: 85 EWR: 91 LGA: JFK: 84 ISP: 85 New Brunswick: 89 BLM: 86 TTN: 85 ACY: 86 PHL: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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