Cold Rain Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Giant, destructive snowflakes, though? (I think Cold Rain coined that one last year) Yes! And I can guarantee you that phrase will be used again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Giant, destructive snowflakes, though? (I think Cold Rain coined that one last year) Now that's no laughing matter. One has been known to completely shut down Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Fwiw, the brand new Euro weeklies suggest a warming in Nino 3.4 from ~0 to +0.1 C anomaly this week to near the low end of weak Nino (say ~+0.5 C to +0.6 C) during the first week of Sep. At the same time, they show a weakening of the Nino 1+2 warmth (i.e., they're showing a transition from east based toward neutral based for the warmth). Also, they show the +PDO holding pretty firm. These weeklies have been pretty consistent. IMO, if this were to verify (looking ahead toward winter), this would be a good trend for cold potential as it shows a trend toward at least a weak Nino by autumn along with the continued +PDO. Like I posted in the Nino thread, it looks like we're seeing a downward trend in the PDO. Peaked in May then sharply dropped by June and continued to drop into July. I could see a neutral PDO by winter, which wouldn't be too bad for a decent winter in the South. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Yes! And I can guarantee you that phrase will be used again this year. But, but... someone said no one east of the mountains was going to get any last year. Then it almost didn't stop snowing and icing until April.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Like I posted in the Nino thread, it looks like we're seeing a downward trend in the PDO. Peaked in May then sharply dropped by June and continued to drop into July. I could see a neutral PDO by winter, which wouldn't be too bad for a decent winter in the South. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 Long range is calling for warmer than normal over the east Pacific and south of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Like I posted in the Nino thread, it looks like we're seeing a downward trend in the PDO. Peaked in May then sharply dropped by June and continued to drop into July. I could see a neutral PDO by winter, which wouldn't be too bad for a decent winter in the South. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 Kory, Just so it is posted here, too, I'll post the same reply to you that I just did in the main board's ENSO thread: Based on the jisao PDO table's historical stats: when considering the combo of the still persistent +PDO pattern so far this year as well as the July PDO of a still pretty solidly positive +0.70 (that is at the 73 percentile for July), I'm currently giving it about an 80% chance for a +PDO this coming DJF averaged on the jisao table. Out of the 114 winters listed, 60 (52%) of them had a +PDO..so ~50%. So, this 80% chance is well above the long-term based chance. Edit: A key for a +PDO to continue would be to maintain the below normal SST's (blues) centered near 40N along the dateline. That along with the warmth in the E Pacific is the textbook +PDO for those who don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 A +PDO for this month and next month would be a good sign, as it would be a clear departure from 1994 and 2006, when the PDO turned negative in August and mostly stayed that way into each winter. The winters of 1994-95 and 2006-07 both had weak/mod El Nino but were pretty awful for the south, so the more daylight between this winter and those, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 A +PDO for this month and next month would be a good sign, as it would be a clear departure from 1994 and 2006, when the PDO turned negative in August and mostly stayed that way into each winter. The winters of 1994-95 and 2006-07 both had weak/mod El Nino but were pretty awful for the south, so the more daylight between this winter and those, the better. was 2006-07 the year when there was brutal cold and snow in April ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 We need to get a full winter this year. Last winter was heavily back-loaded. It was an epic, historic February/March. The winter up until January 28th was horrendous, though. It was still a great winter, of course, but this winter could be even better if we get wintry weather from December until March. In my view, it was more like an epic, historic February 12/13 (The Big One) with 10-12" of snow and handful of awesome cold snaps in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 We need to get a full winter this year. Last winter was heavily back-loaded. It was an epic, historic February/March. The winter up until January 28th was horrendous, though. It was still a great winter, of course, but this winter could be even better if we get wintry weather from December until March. honestly I don't remember anything at all epic about February or March. January was an amazing month though. Both December and February were above normal in Atlanta in terms of temps. I would assume that was the case for the rest of the south also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 In my view, it was more like an epic, historic February 12/13 (The Big One) with 10-12" of snow and handful of awesome cold snaps in January. Yeah, true, but up here we had the big ice storm in early March and a couple minor/moderate ice storms later in the month (most of those seemed localized to the NW Piedmont, though). January did bring the cold, so that's true. Plus, we had the nice January 28th event. honestly I don't remember anything at all epic about February or March. January was an amazing month though. Both December and February were above normal in Atlanta in terms of temps. I would assume that was the case for the rest of the south also. I was talking about MBY mostly. February had the epic February 8th storm and then March had the significant March ice storm that knocked out power here for a week and then a couple other minor/moderate icing events. Probably the most wintry March I've ever seen by far overall (granted, I've only been alive 22 years). Other Marches have had more snow (1993, 2009, off the top of my head), but last March was cold throughout the month and events happened all the way until the calendar switched to April). I think GSO reported ~16" of snow last year (MBY slightly less), 14"+ of which came in February and March (8" of which came in one storm... "The Big One"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Yeah, true, but up here we had the big ice storm in early March and a couple minor/moderate ice storms later in the month (most of those seemed localized to the NW Piedmont, though). January did bring the cold, so that's true. Plus, we had the nice January 28th event. I was talking about MBY mostly. February had the epic February 8th storm and then March had the significant March ice storm that knocked out power here for a week and then a couple other minor/moderate icing events. Probably the most wintry March I've ever seen by far overall (granted, I've only been alive 22 years). Other Marches have had more snow (1993, 2009, off the top of my head), but last March was cold throughout the month and events happened all the way until the calendar switched to April). I think GSO reported ~16" of snow last year (MBY slightly less), 14"+ of which came in February and March (8" of which came in one storm... "The Big One"). March was very amazing. As everybody knows, ice storms become less likely the closer you get to March. In the past I've seen some ice in early March, but never a "real" ice storm. Last year we saw three ice storms. I've got a picture of the last storm showing ice totaling encasing a peach blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Last year was a decent winter. The most snow at my house at any one point was around 4 inches or so. Feel like we're gonna snag the big one this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I think this Nino is going to be a close call. I would go with 60% chance of Nino, 40% chance of Neutral...and if we get a Nino, 80% chance it's weak, and 20% it's moderate. Those are my deep thoughts, by Jack Handey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I think this Nino is going to be a close call. I would go with 60% chance of Nino, 40% chance of Neutral...and if we get a Nino, 80% chance it's weak, and 20% it's moderate. Those are my deep thoughts, by Jack Handey. which is a winner either way!!! I would like a weak Nino but neutral is not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Cool August not a trend for coming winter, BUT... http://www.wral.com/cool-august-not-a-trend-for-coming-winter/13891037/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Last year was a decent winter. The most snow at my house at any one point was around 4 inches or so. Feel like we're gonna snag the big one this year. I hope so. Last year all the big ones were either to our west or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Brad P.'s topic today... What does the cool summer mean for this winter. http://wxbrad.com/how-cool-has-this-summer-really-been-does-it-mean-anything-for-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Brad P.'s topic today... What does the cool summer mean for this winter. http://wxbrad.com/how-cool-has-this-summer-really-been-does-it-mean-anything-for-winter/ He's such a tease October will be here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 JB's (WxBell's) Winter forecast available in this free video to the public at 11:09 minutes in http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/saturday-summary-aug-17-1/ -2 to -4 below normal temps for much of the SE 100% to 167% above normal snowfall for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Check please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Check please.If he were only right every once in awhile!!?I just saw a cheap imitation of the farmers almanac yesterday, and none of the main winter months, DJF were below normal , according to their forecast. I would give the almanac a little more of a chance of being right! I know we will see 50 more winter outlooks in the coming months, and anyone could be right, but he seems off the last few years, and I bet he had his bread and butter NE area as below normal and 300% of normal snow, just like every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 JB's (WxBell's) Winter forecast available in this free video to the public at 11:09 minutes in http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/saturday-summary-aug-17-1/ -2 to -4 below normal temps for much of the SE 100% to 167% above normal snowfall for the SE OMG That means Waycross would be hammered by anything from 0.1 to 0.167 inches of snow. I hope the National Guard is ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 JB's (WxBell's) Winter forecast available in this free video to the public at 11:09 minutes in http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/saturday-summary-aug-17-1/ -2 to -4 below normal temps for much of the SE 100% to 167% above normal snowfall for the SE JB showed the attached map last Sat. in his free video, which has many areas of the SE near or colder than 4 below normal. This would be close to a top ten cold winter in ATL among other places and similar to 2009-10. I think this is quite a realistic option as of now. The combo of weak Nino (chances increasing), +PDO (better than 3 in 4 chance as of now imo), and -NAO would give about the best chance for a really cold winter. 12 Coldest (back to 1879-80) KATL Winters’ ENSO Winter……DJF Temp Anom…ENSO 1) 1976-7……….…..-7.6…………WEN 2) 1977-8…………...-6.2…………WEN 3) 1904-5……………-5.8………...WEN 4) 1962-3……………-5.8…………WLN or NN 5) 1935-6……………-5.7………….NP 6) 1963-4……………-5.7…………WEN or MEN 7) 1939-40………….-5.5…………WEN 8) 1901-2…………...-5.4………….NN 9) 2009-10………….-4.4…………SEN 10) 1885-6………….-4.3…………WEN 11) 1894-5………….-4.3…………WLN 12) 1969-70…….…..-4.1………….WEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Good work by Joe. His insight is very valuable and I always give his analysis heavy weighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Guaranteed (except for the PR and maybe S. GA parts ): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 What's that bird doing over middle tennessee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 What's that bird doing over middle tennessee? Why, that's the Wilkesdud Blackbird Snowstorm Signal, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Why, that's the Wilkesdud Blackbird Snowstorm Signal, of course. You nailed that map! I expect alot of screw jobs this winter, so it will be memorable. You somehow, on purpose, I think, left a white hole of nothing over my house!!? Very similar to last years " big one"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 You nailed that map! I expect alot of screw jobs this winter, so it will be memorable. You somehow, on purpose, I think, left a white hole of nothing over my house!!? Very similar to last years " big one"! Dang, Mack. That's crappy. Sorry man. But on the other hand, you don't wanna be in the bullseye this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.