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August 2014


Rtd208

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IThe ridging did arrive and develop (for the second half od August) as modeled in early august but the heat as later modeled was going to be delayed due to undercutting of the ridge and an easterly flow. Overall, the period 8/18 - early September should still be on the warm side and we'll see how much heat can develop. Going for stronger heat is recent dryness but the seasonal trend certainly does argue against it. But the pattern has seemed to shift to one that favors ridging into the east and only transient troughs followed by higher heights returning back.

More interesting will be how the tropics will respond to this ridging. Cristobal is still tied in with some current troughing but the one after it will be interesting with all that ridging building in.

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The 12z NAM had potential for some isolated strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday afternoon, with the cold front. MLCAPE is 1749 J/kg and shear is ok. BRN numbers aren't too high.The 12z GFS is less enthused with a deeper NW flow and EML keep in environment more capped and stable.

 

post-187-0-36308300-1408994311_thumb.gif

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12Z ECMWF indicates a scorcher (for this year's standards) on Sunday, August 31st with low-mid 90s. The late August heat may not be off the table just yet.

 

GFS is in agreement on a hot 31st.

 

s49y1j.png

this map shows how western Staten Island can be as hot as any place on the map while southern Brooklyn remains a few degrees cooler if there is a southerly wind...My old house in Brooklyn was always cooler in the Summer unless there was a west to north wind...When I moved to Staten Island I noticed temperatures here are similar to Newark but a lot cooler near the eastern shore...

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I knew we wouldn't get away with it. I'd rather have July and August break heat records if it means a cool September. I hate warm Septembers. Hopefully this all goes away after the first few days into the new month.

It sucks a lot. Why couldn't we have this weeks ago. What's the point now when everything's going to be closing down, the end of vacation and BBQ season, and rapidly losing daylight.

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It sucks a lot. Why couldn't we have this weeks ago. What's the point now when everything's going to be closing down, the end of vacation and BBQ season, and rapidly losing daylight.

 

 

Ironically September is probably the nicest month of the year to be at the Jersey Shore. No crowds, and still sufficient weather for beach/pool on the majority of days. I've always thought that the September-October period was probably the most sunny/pleasant period of the year in our area.

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Ironically September is probably the nicest month of the year to be at the Jersey Shore. No crowds, and still sufficient weather for beach/pool on the majority of days. I've always thought that the September-October period was probably the most sunny/pleasant period of the year in our area.

Yeah I never understood why people flee after labor day...the 2nd/3rd weeks of September's the best time to go

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this is probably why. move the ASOS away from that tree canopy and it would be similar to/beat ewr much more consistently

 

Between the dryness of late and the supposed cleanup - the park will be more in line with EWR Id guess the next week.  Might see some warmer spots touch 90 tomorrow, wed and perhaps Thu pending on front.

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