Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

Recommended Posts

Direct impact wise yes it will be minute here

Do not underestimate the beach impacts. I have been guarding at jones Beach for 16 years and a storm on this track will throw some serious swell into the area. As jm said it's not the largest storm so that's a limiting factor. As it starts to transition to extra trop it's wind field and thus fetch will increase allowing for more swell generation.

These longer period swells have a ton of surging power which allows them to wash over beaches. I'm not talking wash overs of whole islands just beach fronts.

Still too early for some of us here, particularly out on the east end of LI. As of 2pm NHC has Tropical Storm force wind probabilities up to 40% in eastern Suffolk. Additionally Arthur's current position is already north and west of the NHC's extrapolated position for this hr. Therefore I'd shift the swath even further west, raising eastern LI's chances up to 60%... 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205451.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 718
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The major west biased RAP looks like this on its latest run at 14Z tomorrow AM...bottom line it'll end up more E and S of that, I think we'll have alot of angry people tomorrow about all these cancelled events as I had said earlier...the 18Z RGEM really backed off...we basically have the GFS with the armageddon rain scenario tomorrow and thats it.

 

 

cref_t3sfc_f18.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The major west biased RAP looks like this on its latest run at 14Z tomorrow AM...bottom line it'll end up more E and S of that, I think we'll have alot of angry people tomorrow about all these cancelled events as I had said earlier...the 18Z RGEM really backed off...we basically have the GFS with the armageddon rain scenario tomorrow and thats it.

cref_t3sfc_f18.png

I've noticed with tropical storms like this.....there is of course the inner bands (which we definitely will not be any part of), and then an area that is kind of in a lull outside of that, and then the outer bands which are sometimes way out NW. I'm thinking its possible we get into that ? Given, it'd probably be between 1 and 2 inches though if we do get it, not 3-5

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is going to end up a pretty big bust IMO...hopefully it's sunny by afternoon on the 4 th

 

I don't think the media did that bad a job, there was some misinformation but people took that little bit and ran with it, it was not necessary to go axing everything as has pretty much been done, this is definitely a new phenomenon with bad weather on July 4th and sort of goes in the theory we're becoming softer as the years go on, I recall plenty of bad weather July 4ths over the years where everything went on rain or shine...1992 is by far the most notable, it was basically a washout.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We should see some serious waves along the coast Friday night and Saturday morning. Big enough for wash overs at most beaches. A good analog is earl. There could even be some minor erosion issues out east

...hope your wrong surf freak..my beach(pikes beach) in westhampton dunes has

grown to a pretty wide beach..wouldn't want that ruined so early in the season..

high tide @ moriches inlet is 12:44am friday morning..that would be the cycle IF we 

do get the washover..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The radar and satellite are looking more impressive again-this might make a run at 110 mph before landfall near Morehead City. There's going to be lots of damage from there out across the Outer Banks in the morning.

The eye is also contracting somewhat which will perhaps keep it over water for a tiny bit longer, I'd love to see some video from Cape Hatteras.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We should see some amazing surf tomorrow and the biggest danger of rip currents will probably exist through Saturday.

The most amazing thing is that this one early storm has already proven more exciting than all of last hurricane season, in an El Niño type season no less. Have to wonder if this is just a precursor to something bigger later this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We should see some amazing surf tomorrow and the biggest danger of rip currents will probably exist through Saturday.

The most amazing thing is that this one early storm has already proven more exciting than all of last hurricane season, in an El Niño type season no less. Have to wonder if this is just a precursor to something bigger later this season.

Homegrown systems are more common in Niño years. This one formed off the Bahamas. I'll admit I was completely wrong when I dismissed this storm last week. The Euro caught this early just like Sandy.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The shore areas are definitely going to see some effects. Not severe, but I think this is being underplayed. Some of the models have tropical storm force winds getting close too or brushing the coast. Gonna be fun to watch, and expecting some big waves at the least. I have a feeling that the northwestern side of this storm is going to expand and contain most of higher winds. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The shore areas are definitely going to see some effects. Not severe, but I think this is being underplayed. Some of the models have tropical storm force winds getting close too or brushing the coast. Gonna be fun to watch, and expecting some big waves at the least. I have a feeling that the northwestern side of this storm is going to expand and contain most of higher winds. 

Overnight and tomorrow are going to be interesting to see how far west the bands end up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...