NEG NAO Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 2 pm NHC update http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/021742.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like I picked a great week to come to Williamsburg. Canadian models want to bring the core right up the coast. GFS is a skin if your teeth miss and the Euro shifted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 GFS is pretty much a washout on Friday for a good chunk of the area, keeps Arthur pretty close to the coast compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like I picked a great week to come to Williamsburg. Canadian models want to bring the core right up the coast. GFS is a skin if your teeth miss and the Euro shifted west. 18z GFS is now pretty much a washout for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 18z GFS is now pretty much a washout for NYC.What about down here in Williamsburg? From mobile looked like a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 SREF continues to shift West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 SREF continues to shift West. While the NAM is still east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 While the NAM is still east.Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Check out the latest 11pm update from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It's unusual for a storm in that location with that outflow pattern to miss the EC entirely. I'd bet on this ending up on the west side of guidance, just based on gut of looking at 30 years of satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Garbage Is this garbage too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/024953.shtml?hwind120?large#contents Don`t see the westward argument . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wait for the ensembles to confirm....and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Is this garbage too ? It was very slight but you could see on tonight's 00Z RGEM and GFS runs they are starting to dry out the western side of the storm up here compared to prior runs and seeing the majority of the precip being on the east side of the storm, later in the run they are still suffering from the same issue in SNE but that too will back off as it gets more inside 48 hours up that way. The storm may well end up over or barely SE of the benchmark which I thought was probably too far NW a day or two ago but it'll take a Christmas miracle to get it much NW of that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The hurricane models shifted west. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It was very slight but you could see on tonight's 00Z RGEM and GFS runs they are starting to dry out the western side of the storm up here compared to prior runs and seeing the majority of the precip being on the east side of the storm, later in the run they are still suffering from the same issue in SNE but that too will back off as it gets more inside 48 hours up that way. The storm may well end up over or barely SE of the benchmark which I thought was probably too far NW a day or two ago but it'll take a Christmas miracle to get it much NW of that.. I agree. Over or just SE of the benchmark and within 50 or so miles of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 And we have Hurricane Arthur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Arthur is now dangerous hurricane. Hoping the storm falls apart today and goes out to sea. Too many lives are at risk in locations such as the outer banks. We need dry air to invade the core of the storm or a massive jog east with the track. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The hurricane models shifted west. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. You ignore all guidance . The trough on the higher skill score models were insistent of shunting the western side since Monday . The Center is and has been SE of the BM on EVERY model and it`s ensembles and you post this ? The NHC has been consistent with it`s track and its never been close to you . This trough has always meant business . This week has always been about its midweek thunderstorms followed by the weekends rough surf and rip currents . And yes this should produce some good thunderstorms for eastern areas on Friday AM . Hopefully coastal NJ , the city and the Long Island guys can get a nice light show from this and then Friday will clear out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 5 AM Advisory . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Based on recon sounds like he's up close to 80kts now. One thing we know is that TC's transitioning to extra tropical expand the wind field and shift the heaviest rains to the NW quadrant. We'll see if that happens or not. The past several days the models were showing a steady strengthening north of VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 On latest radar loops you can clearly see that Arthur is now starting to move slightly east of due north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 here is a live web cam out of Myrtle Beach SC - if anyone else has any live cams from the beaches down south in SC and NC post them here http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 On latest radar loops you can clearly see that Arthur is now starting to move slightly east of due north..Yup, that's better for it's chances of strengthening as the effects are greatly reduced from the westerly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You ignore all guidance . The trough on the higher skill score models were insistent of shunting the western side since Monday . The Center is and has been SE of the BM on EVERY model and it`s ensembles and you post this ? The NHC has been consistent with it`s track and its never been close to you . This trough has always meant business . This week has always been about its midweek thunderstorms followed by the weekends rough surf and rip currents . And yes this should produce some good thunderstorms for eastern areas on Friday AM . Hopefully coastal NJ , the city and the Long Island guys can get a nice light show from this and then Friday will clear out . OKX is beginning to buy into the possibility of TS conditions for Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Even if it ends up a miss to the east it was still the most fun I've had tracking weather since March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Pressure down to 982mb per recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 OKX is beginning to buy into the possibility of TS conditions for Suffolk County. 20 - 30 perc possibility sure from E /SC to CC . But his post that the models came West , just weren`t true . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA plane finds 91kt flight level wind and 81kt SFMR wind. Dropsonde also reported 103kt wind at 925mb. 70kt at the surface. 8am advisory has 80mph wind, pressure 983mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 OKX is beginning to buy into the possibility of TS conditions for Suffolk County. Do some of these " genius`s " a favor and remind them how many helicopter plucks you had to make during Sandy . It`s mindless that some of these guys root this stuff on here . Thankfully this was a WHIFF . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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