Hurr_Tracker13 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 No it's an eye wall, go look in the main thread. Several Mets on here, including wxmeddler even agreed saying its not an eye wall bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Several Mets on here, including wxmeddler even agreed saying its not an eye wall bro.Let me correct by saying it's not the result of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 If that's not an eye wall then I don't know what is. Clearly it's not the most textbook version because there's still dry air involved but once that mixes out then watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 If that's not an eye wall then I don't know what is. Clearly it's not the most textbook version because there's still dry air involved but once that mixes out then watch out. Then you don't know what is. Not being rude/arrogant, but it's not hard to understand the reasoning behind this not being an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Then you don't know what is. Not being rude/arrogant, but it's not hard to understand the reasoning behind this not being an eye. Well then we'll see what recon has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Then you don't know what is. Not being rude/arrogant, but it's not hard to understand the reasoning behind this not being an eye. Well, it will be eventually, shear is the only factor that can prevent this from stacking up. All short-range models, HRRR etc show this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 5 am NHC update on still Tropical Storm Arthur http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/020855.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Recon confirmed a 34 mile wide eye last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Both the 00z GGEM and JMA scraped the coast on Friday. The GFS was just offshore. Euro seems to be on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Both the 00z GGEM and JMA scraped the coast on Friday. The GFS was just offshore. Euro seems to be on it's own. That's enough for me , It spins this well E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Nam pushes the front through in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Eye differently see an eye LOL.Have a nice day see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 That's enough for me , It spins this well EGood for you. It's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Nam pushes the front through in a hurryIt has zero skill with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Main stream media is horrible these days. I don't get why they hype the hurricane. Unless they do this so people won't be confused, why do they say the rain Friday is from the hurricane? It's from the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Main stream media is horrible these days. I don't get why they hype the hurricane. Unless they do this so people won't be confused, why do they say the rain Friday is from the hurricane? It's from the cold front. I have many friends asking me about this hurricane coming. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 8 a.m . NHC update: -also try and keep the banter to a min. so this thread is easier to navigate or if you are going to post banter - also post something related to this current storm or tropics in the same post http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/021147.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Main stream media is horrible these days. I don't get why they hype the hurricane. Unless they do this so people won't be confused, why do they say the rain Friday is from the hurricane? It's from the cold front. Upton just made a Facebook post with a video trying to get the idea across that it's all frontal related and that the tropical will be offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Good for you. It's an outlier. ? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114756.shtml?basin#contents . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 ? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114756.shtml?basin#contents . The globals tend to want to be west of the NHC models with recurving systems off the US for some reason, they usually start hooking by this point but the GFS has been slow to do so this far, the Euro although it has waffled around has generally been more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The globals tend to want to be west of the NHC models with recurving systems off the US for some reason, they usually start hooking by this point but the GFS has been slow to do so this far, the Euro although it has waffled around has generally been more east. The GEM western side is stronger , I like the look of the Euros shunt east as that trough comes flying through . Think there is enough push thru the zone that once to OBX its ENE not NE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 11 am update from NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/021455.shtml Arthur beginning to get more organized off of FLA http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25se.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z rgem is closer to the coast and brings Arthur rain bands to NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z Euro is a bit of a cave to the closer to the coast camp.It now clips NYC with Arthur bands with the heaviest for Eastern LI and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z Euro is a bit of a cave to the closer to the coast camp. It now clips NYC with Arthur bands with the heaviest for Eastern LI and the Cape. Around what time does the Euro actually show the rain affecting us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Around what time does the Euro actually show the rain affecting us? 12z Euro verbatim has on and off rain all day tomorrow with the front interaction (PRE). And then rain with the actual Arthur for NYC from about 2pm Friday to about 8pm. For Eastern LI the rain on the euro lasts until about 2am Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z Euro verbatim has on and off rain all day tomorrow with the front interaction (PRE). And then rain with the actual Arthur for NYC from about 2pm Friday to about 8pm. For Eastern LI the rain on the euro lasts until about 2am Saturday. I think Friday needs to be watched a bit more. Euro definitely bumped west by a decent amount and with tropical or sub-tropical systems, you can't really pinpoint the track until inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 12z Euro verbatim has on and off rain all day tomorrow with the front interaction (PRE). And then rain with the actual Arthur for NYC from about 2pm Friday to about 8pm. For Eastern LI the rain on the euro lasts until about 2am Saturday. Wow what a bust of a holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Euro also now introduces winds for LI on Friday night with sustained winds of 20-30mph and higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Still not buying it, hurricane models are all well east and they're rarely that wrong 48 hours out, globals also severely overdo moisture on the WRN side of tropical systems beyond 24-36 hours, in this case the jet dynamics make me buy that from 12-18z there may be rain but beyond that I don't see anything west of ERN LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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