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2014 NATL Tropical-Hurricane-Seasonal Forecast Contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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13/8/2 and for June, 0/0/0

 

cat-3 landfall e NC late Aug

 

(late answer to question above, just saw it)

 

any given named storm counts for the month in which it is first named, if by some chance it fizzles and reappears still just one entry for first month, will follow NHS lead on close to boundary cases (think they go with z not civil time so that 03z Sep 1 is in September not August as on the clock).

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

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Season: 10/4/1

June: 1/0/0

 

Preliminary thoughts: ACE 60-75% of Normal, CV season fairly active but struggling against dust and shear, a few sleeper waves possible. At least one TS/H landfall in Florida. Major Hurricane not making landfall streak continues. A lot of crappy TS's and fish storms.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Thanks for all the entries, I will start tabulating them this afternoon. If you entered the seasonal contest but didn't specify anything for June, would suggest you take the slight late penalty involved and post your monthly numbers. But the month is only worth 4% of the contest points so no big disadvantage.

 

I will also waive the tiny 1% seasonal penalties to this point so as to avoid cluttering up the tables with tiny score changes, but be forewarned, forecasts entered after 12z today will be on the clock seasonally.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Seasonal and Monthly forecasts for North Atlantic tropical cyclones

______________________________________________________

 

 

Note: You can revise any future month without penalty before 06z first, and enter any month before then, or with time penalty added during the first few days of any month -- see rules in post 1. Some people have posted estimates for each month but there is no contest requirement to do so. Also, you may add your max landfall thoughts any time before mid-August, no contest points involved.

 

This year, we're not dealing in decimal forecasts so I took the actual 25-year averages for the season and smoothed some monthly numbers that in decimal form might be close to one hurricane for July and one named storm for Nov-Dec but this set adds up to the actual averages so it should give a reasonable comparison to contest values. Probably the majors are more like 1.49 for Sep and 0.51 for Oct. :)

 

<<<<<<<<<<< scoring update August 1st, June and July scores are in red >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

FORECASTER __________ SEASONAL __ JUNE ___ JULY ___ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV-DEC

 

______________________ S _ H _ M ___ SHM____ SHM____ SHM___ SHM___ SHM___ SHM_____ max landfall

 

Normal 1989-2013_______ 14 _ 7 _ 3 __ 100 3.5 __ 100 5.5 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 ________

 

 

Uncle W _______________ 14 _ 7 _ 1 __ 100 3.5 __ 310 4.8 __ 5 3 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 1 1 0 __ 0 0 0 _______

 

Roger Smith ____________ 13 _ 8 _ 2 __ 000 4.0 __ 210 5.5 __ 3 2 1 ______________________ cat 3 e NC late Aug

 

Jim Marusak ____________ 13 _ 6 _ 1 __ 100 3.5 __ 100 5.5 __ 3 1 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 2 0 __ 1 0 0 ___ cat 2 w-e across ncFL

 

Rjay __________________ 13 _ 5 _ 2 __ 100 3.5  __ 210 5.5 __ 4 2 1 __

 

IsentropicLift ___________ 13 _ 5 _ 1 __ 100*1.8 __ 100*2.8 __ 2 1 0 ______________________ cat 2 FL

 

Solak _________________ 12 _ 5 _ 2 __ 210 2.2 __ 100*2.8  __ 4*2*1*

 

Ground Scouring ________ 12 _ 4 _ 2 __ 100* 1.8 __ 200 5.5 __ 3 1 0 _____________________ one 125kt or +

 

metalicwx366 ___________12 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100 3.5 __ 110 6.0 __ 3 2 1

 

Harry _________________ 11 _ 5 _ 2 __ 100* 1.8__ 100*2.8  __ 3*1*1*

 

Mike Ventrice ___________ 11 _ 4 _ 1 __ 000 4.0 __ 100*2.8  __ 3*1*1*

 

CandymanColumbusGA ___ 11 _ 3 _ 1 __ 200 2.8 __ 210 5.5 __ 3 1 0

 

Thewxmann ____________ 11 _ 2 _ 0 __ 200 2.8 __ 210 5.5 __ 4 1 0 __ 4 1 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 0 0 0 ___

 

Eyewall 2005 ___________ 10 _ 5 _ 2 __ 100*1.8__ 100*2.8 __ 3*2*1*

 

Isotherm ______________ 10 _ 4 _ 2 __ 100 3.5 __ 210 5.5 __ 3 1 1

 

Srain _________________ 10 _ 4 _ 2 __ 100*1.8 __ 100*2.8 __ 3*1*1*

 

wxmeddler ____________ 10 _ 4 _ 1 __ 100 3.5 __ 210 5.5 __ 3 1 0 _____________________ FL (TS or minor H)

 

Peabody Flood _________ 10 _ 4 _ 1 __ 100*1.8 __ 100*2.8 __ 3*1*0*

 

U Thant _______________10 _ 3 _ 2 __ 100 3.5 __ 210 5.5 __ 3 1 1

 

superstorm93 __________ 10 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100*1.8 __ 100*2.8 __ 3*1*0*

 

 

Consensus (median) _____ 10 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100 3.5 __ 110 6.0 ___ 3 1 1

 

 

TropicalAnalystwx13 _____ 10 _ 2 _ 1 __ 100*1.8 __ 100*2.8 __ 3 1 0

 

wildweatherman179 _____ 10 _ 2 _ 0 __ 100*1.8 __ 200 5.0 __ 3*1*0*

 

wxmx _________________ 9 _ 4 _ 1 __ 200 2.8 __ 210 5.5  __ 4 2 1

 

Isohume / CSU @ _______ 9 _ 3 _ 2 __ 100*1.8 __ 100*2.8 __ 3*1*1*

 

blazess556 _____________ 9 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100 3.5  __ 100*2.8 __ 3 1 1

 

hurricaneman ___________ 9 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100 3.5  __ 210 5.5 __ 4 2 1 __ 3 1 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 ___ 135kt FLL Aug 22

 

ncforecaster89 __________ 9 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100 3.5  __ 210 5.5 __ 3 1 1

 

Stebo _________________ 9 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100 3.5  __ 210 5.5 __ 3 1 1

 

Icebreaker5221 _________ 9 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100*1.8 __ 210 5.5 __ 3 2 1

 

bkviking _______________ 9 _ 2 _ 0 __ 100 3.5 __ 100 5.5 __ 3 1 0 __ 4 1 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 0 0 0 ___

 

Amped ________________ 9 _ 1 _ 1 __ 100*1.8  __ 100*2.8 __ 3*0*0*

 

Pluffmud _______________ 8 _ 4 _ 1 __ 100*1.8 __ 100*2.8 __ 2*1*0*

 

GaWx __________________8 _ 3 _ 1 __ 100 3.5  __ 110 6.0 __ 3 1 0 __________________________

__________________7-1__ 8 _ 4 _ 1

 

andyhb ________________ 8 _ 2 _ 1 __ 100 3.5  __ 200 5.0 __ 3 1 0 (-10%)

 

torchageddon ___________ 8 _ 1 _ 0 __ 100 3.5  __ 000 5.0 __ 2 0 0 __ 5 1 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 0 0 0 ___ 45kt TS e/cFL  Sep 9 

 

Ed Lizard _______________7 _ 3 _ 1 _1.500 3.2  __ 100*2.8 __ 2*1*0*

 

biodhokie ______________ 6 _ 3 _ 1 __ 000*2.0 __ 100*2.8 __ 2*1*0*

 

PSUBlizzicane 2007_______ 5 _ 1 _ 0 __ 100 3.5 __ 200 5.0 __  2 1 0

_________________ 7-31 _ 7 _ 3 _ 0

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

@ Isohume posted a range, these are means from the range, and he attributes the forecasts to CSU.

 

* with monthly forecasts:

Entrants without a June monthly forecast have been assigned a provisional value of either 1,0,0 or 0,0,0 from a scaling of the "normal" value of 1,0,0 to their seasonal forecast. These are marked with asterisks (example, 1*0*0*). The provisional forecasts will get 50% of the points that actual entrants receive for the same numbers. This will also happen in future months -- it's a way to keep everyone in the game but clearly when we get to higher value August and September you'll be much further ahead to make a forecast than rely on this half-value-at-best method.  (added Aug 1) the July provisionals were similar across the range of seasonals due to rounding but you'll see a range of provisional numbers for non-entrants in August. If you see a provisional set of numbers and want to confirm your own numbers before August 3rd, when late penalty reaches 50% and there's no point, post your actual numbers or just say "confirm provisionals."

 

Scored months as we move forward show a score in red, and retain the forecast in a condensed form (e.g. 1 0 0 becomes 100). The provisional forecasts that I added are shown with an asterisk *. Scores for June, July and Nov-Dec will be error-reduced at half the regular rate as these scores are smaller proportions of the total. Full reductions for August, September and October. See rules for more details (reductions are average of error and error squared).

 

Enter future monthly forecasts by 06z first of each month in this thread. You have the option of revising your seasonal with time penalties as per rules in post 1. Otherwise, this year we don't ask for updated seasonal forecasts each month. Seasonal updates are posted as a second line with the date of revision. You'll receive the better of the two scores after time penalty on update.

 

NOTE: There is no possible mathematical gain at 60% time penalty for any updates outside the range of 5 total change per category as of August 1st, mostly for that reason, seasonal updates will not be accepted past this weekend Aug 2-3. ... in fact I doubt that the two received so far during the contest can mathematically improve the originals given the time penalties. we shall see.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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A reminder to contest participants, your July monthly forecast is due by July 1st 06z.

 

To make the contest a little more inclusive I have gone through the table of entries and edited in what I will call "provisional forecasts" marked with asterisks, these would be scaled versions of the normal numbers entered for "Normal 1989-2013" and adjusted to fit your seasonals. If you forget or don't bother to enter a monthly forecast, that provisional will count but at 50% of its score to reward those who actively participate.

 

At the moment, it would seem that June might end up 0/0/0 -- those who predicted same will get 4 points (of the 50 available for monthly), those who predicted 1/0/0 would get 3 points, and those assigned 0/0/0 without a forecast will get 2, those assigned 1/0/0 will get one point.

 

For July, I will post the assigned provisional forecasts after July 2nd.

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

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Entrants without a June monthly forecast have been assigned a provisional value of either 1,0,0 or 0,0,0 from a scaling of the "normal" value of 1,0,0 to their seasonal forecast. These are marked with asterisks (example, 1*0*0*). The provisional forecasts will get 50% of the points that actual entrants receive for the same numbers. This will also happen in future months -- it's a way to keep everyone in the game but clearly when we get to higher value August and September you'll be much further ahead to make a forecast than rely on this half-value-at-best method.

 

Guess I missed this before, but sounds reasonable.

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