Blizzardo Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i'm assuming you're referring to the new 18z NAM. It does look really wierd. I'm not an expert at analyzing models so it would be best if someone analyzed it for me. Hes looking for yanksfan to pickup the gfs pbp. The NAM was a while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ain't happening. Same as earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 .1+ for everyone..really bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Actually East of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No 18z GFS oh okay. That's a bigger deal than the NAM. I'm very confused at what times these models come out with daylight saving time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Eh i dont know at this point im calling for a chance of snow and very windy. IMO we're still not too close to a true consensus, all the pieces we need for this arent all sampled yet. We have to use patience here and not start throwing in the towel here, need i remind everyone this is the 18z GFS as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 oh okay. That's a bigger deal than the NAM. I'm very confused at what times these models come out with daylight saving time. Just an hour later then usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 .1+ for everyone..really bad run Hopefully 0z has a further west trend, or it's fairly likely it ends up a graze or OTS. The elements of this that will cause a close to the coast track or out to sea are determined pretty soon, and after 0z the writing will pretty much be on the wall one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Things definitely aren't trending west. As stated earlier, models have done an incredible job with this storm. The consensus between most of the models is the best of any storm this year. There's really also been no trends west or east that have been too substantial Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hopefully 0z has a further west trend, or it's fairly likely it ends up a graze or OTS. The elements of this that will cause a close to the coast track or out to sea are determined pretty soon, and after 0z the writing will pretty much be on the wall one way or the other. 0z should and i emphasize should produce a different look than what 12z has shown one of the pieces of energy is still in a sparse data region in CA. No one has been talking of the UKMET consistency in its forecast the past three days though, think that should hold some weight here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hopefully 0z has a further west trend, or it's fairly likely it ends up a graze or OTS. The elements of this that will cause a close to the coast track or out to sea are determined pretty soon, and after 0z the writing will pretty much be on the wall one way or the other. Was comparing the 18z to 12z; the ULL is further west, the Rex Block is stronger, and the ridge in the west is slightly more amplified. It looks like the GFS has trouble with the southern stream disturbance (bias). Mets clarify if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Things definitely aren't trending west. As stated earlier, models have done an incredible job with this storm. The consensus between most of the models is the best of any storm this year. There's really also been no trends west or east that have been too substantial Sent from my iPhone In my opinion models will not have done an incredible job until the storm has been modeled.... come... result... and gone...little early for that right now the consistency right now is remarkable but will it be the end game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We cannot keep using the 'it's not fully sampled' excuse every time a storm appears to not be heading in our direction. Sampling is fine as of 12z today. Models are honing in on a track. We aren't in a prime zone for 'THE BIG ONE.' We just aren't. There's no Atlantic blocking and this storm, though a beauty in strength, was poised to move further east due to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We cannot keep using the 'it's not fully sampled' excuse every time a storm appears to not be heading in our direction. Sampling is fine as of 12z today. Models are honing in on a track. We aren't in a prime zone for 'THE BIG ONE.' We just aren't. There's no Atlantic blocking and this storm, though a beauty in strength, was poised to move further east due to that.Disagree with no blocking causing a big storm to east. That is not ALWAYS the case, there are plenty of other mechanisms that occur than just the atlantic pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Was comparing the 18z to 12z; the ULL is further west, the Rex Block is stronger, and the ridge in the west is slightly more amplified. It looks like the GFS has trouble with the southern stream disturbance (bias). Mets clarify if I am wrong. The southern stream disturbance runs ahead of the northern stream and phases much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The southern stream disturbance runs ahead of the northern stream and phases much later. Right-the biggest problem to me has always been how fast the southern stream is. The northern stream takes forever to catch up to it and as a result the storm forms too late and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Disagree with no blocking causing a big storm to east. That is not ALWAYS the case, there are plenty of other mechanisms that occur than just the atlantic pal Never said it's 'ALWAYS' the case. I said it was poised to. And it was/is without the blocking, climatologically speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The models have been markedly consistent for days now. THAT SHOULD BE THE BIGGEST RED FLAG OF ALL! I will be in shock if there are not some significant changes here shortly, whichever direction that takes us. Correct me if I am wrong, but all of the last three big storms were also very consistently modeled until about 3 days out, then all of a sudden they changed within about 72 hours of the storm. Two to the south and one to the north. Please correct me if I am wrong. I would expect some changes here shortly. I am NOT saying that this means we will get hit, but it would truly be amazing if the current solutions verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The models have been markedly consistent for days now. THAT SHOULD BE THE BIGGEST RED FLAG OF ALL! I will be in shock if there are not some significant changes here shortly, whichever direction that takes us. I've said this for 2 days, not sure this is the start of it or not on the 18Z GFS...the 18Z GFS runs have been really bad this winter so I've sort of gone DT mode on off hour runs lately where I just ignore them completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes its pretty amazing how consistent they have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I've said this for 2 days, not sure this is the start of it or not on the 18Z GFS...the 18Z GFS runs have been really bad this winter so I've sort of gone DT mode on off hour runs lately where I just ignore them completely. Well me too with 18z runs. Isn't this why they only run the Euro at 0z and 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes its pretty amazing how consistent they have been. I'm not going to congratulate them just yet considering the event is still 72 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The models have been markedly consistent for days now. THAT SHOULD BE THE BIGGEST RED FLAG OF ALL! I will be in shock if there are not some significant changes here shortly, whichever direction that takes us. Correct me if I am wrong, but all of the last three big storms were also very consistently modeled until about 3 days out, then all of a sudden they changed within about 72 hours of the storm. Two to the south and one to the north. Please correct me if I am wrong. I would expect some changes here shortly. I am NOT saying that this means we will get hit, but it would truly be amazing if the current solutions verified. im not sure I understand, expecting change because the models have been consistent? And there was much more variance with the last few storms, the models are more closely aligned this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The southern stream disturbance runs ahead of the northern stream and phases much later. The changes at 500mb were good, and GFS usually does this with the southern stream, so there is nothing really alarming IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The models have been markedly consistent for days now. THAT SHOULD BE THE BIGGEST RED FLAG OF ALL! I will be in shock if there are not some significant changes here shortly, whichever direction that takes us. Correct me if I am wrong, but all of the last three big storms were also very consistently modeled until about 3 days out, then all of a sudden they changed within about 72 hours of the storm. Two to the south and one to the north. Please correct me if I am wrong. I would expect some changes here shortly. I am NOT saying that this means we will get hit, but it would truly be amazing if the current solutions verified. These are exactly my thoughts only stated much better than I have tried to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 One more thing that many people don't realize. The ensemble mean does not give you much of an advantage statistically once you get to this range for the EC and Canadian, but it does for the GFS. The verification scores at 3 days is nearly identical to the operational runs of the models for both the Euro and Canadian. That is not the case for the GFS. There is still an advantage to use the ensemble mean for the GFS at 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GEFS mean is well East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GEFS mean is well East Give up brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 See: Mike Ventrice. The goalposts have been pretty steady on all guidance including the ensembles. It really has been an extremely well modeled storm for the reasons Dr. Ventrice mentioned. Of course a 50 mile swing could mean feet or cirrus for some. IMO it won't mean the models have failed this storm. Let's not forget that it would still take a bigger change in the general consensus track to get a direct hit in the NYC area than it would to be a virtual whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I COULD SEE 1-2" FOR NYC ON THE 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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