snow1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Is an inverted trough possible?Those usually never work out for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I too often wonder about this..as I live in mount Sinai north central Suffolk, I consider eastern Long Island as about where I am on east. What is the definition of eastern Long Island because to me as i live here that would be Riverhead and east. To someone from NYC eastern Long Island could be Nassau county. I'd define it as east of the William Floyd Parkway. Central LI is from there west to the Nassau border, and western LI is Nassau/Queens/Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 One good thing to take from the nam is it was more amped and had the surface low almost 10mb stronger than 18z (I wonder if other models will follow suit since we are now getting better data)....If it could consolidate the energy I think it would have looked much nicer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'd define it as east of the William Floyd Parkway. Central LI is from there west to the Nassau border, and western LI is Nassau/Queens/Brooklyn. I agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The NAM is suffering from severe convective issues...the inverted trof idea has been hinted at slightly by the globals, if indeed it did occur though it would be well up the coast from where the NAM shows it in all likelihood, strictly based on climo of where those tend to want to setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Is an inverted trough possible? With this, almost certainly no. The storm will develop into a classic comma shaped storm quickly and west of the CCB there will likely be very little snow. This is the NAM being the way it usually is at the end of its range. The inverted trough is the model not being able to figure out where to put the low. It also seems to have convective feedback errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'd define it as east of the William Floyd Parkway. Central LI is from there west to the Nassau border, and western LI is Nassau/Queens/Brooklyn. Queens & Brooklyn are not part of Long Island except is a strict geographical sense...they are part of New York City. Nassau & Suffolk make up Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The inverted trough has been showing up for days. I haven't looked at the individual SREF's since 09z but it was on every single member that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 i could see the inv trof being more substantial if there's more separation from the main low and the main low is also weaker. that's why the 12z euro was wetter despite being east of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The RGEM may be slightly faster with the northern stream disturbance and more robust with the southern stream run through the end of its run at 48 but its marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Queens & Brooklyn are not part of Long Island except is a strict geographical sense...they are part of New York City. Nassau & Suffolk make up Long Island. Brooklyn and queens are ON Long Island not IN Long Island. You can trick people by asking them what the tallest building ON Long Island is, and the answer is the citibank building in queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Brooklyn and queens are ON Long Island not IN Long Island. Sounds like semantics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We are still over 84 hr from this event. There is plenty of time for this monster to shift west,given that the ukmet has not bugged for 2 days now showing a sub 960 low way west of the benchmark gives me some hope.We Should see by 0z Monday all the global models come into agreement. I riding the Ukmet till it shows me something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Brooklyn and queens are ON Long Island not IN Long Island. You can trick people by asking them what the tallest building ON Long Island is, and the answer is the citibank building in queens. Not much of a trick. I prefer seeing Penn amputate Teller's arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We are still over 84 hr from this event. There is plenty of time for this monster to shift west,given that the ukmet has not bugged for 2 days now showing a sub 960 low way west of the benchmark gives me some hope.We Should see by 0z Monday all the global models come into agreement. I riding the Ukmet till it shows me something different. <72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 <72 hours84 dudeDoesn't start to snow in nyc till Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 84 dude Doesn't start to snow in nyc till we'd night. Tuesday afternoon/evening. Its currently Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 84 dude Doesn't start to snow in nyc till Wed night. The storm will exist before it starts snowing in NYC (if at all). Its general track will be decided by the time it forms off the Southeastern coast, in something like 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 84 dude Doesn't start to snow in nyc till Wed night. Storm is 66-69 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If there is no significant shift west tonight, this one is game folks. There has been great model consensus with track the past couple of days. This is just not the big storm/bomb that was once thought to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If there is no significant shift west tonight, this one is game folks. There has been great model consensus with track the past couple of days. This is just not the big storm/bomb that was once thought to happen. Sure it is. Just located somewhere other than our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If there is no significant shift west tonight, this one is game folks. There has been great model consensus with track the past couple of days. This is just not the big storm/bomb that was once thought to happen. Agreed, major changes tonight or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sounds like semantics... no its reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The ensembles of the GFS at this range follow the Op 95% of the time, so no surprise there...the off runs of the GFS have been horrendous all winter, not always but frequently, so I have generally only been following 00 and 12Z guidance the last 2 months. Scratch 2 months and insert 10 years and this statement is valid for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS pbp? East, west, same. Ridge stronger, weaker. More elongated, less. Heights rising, not rising, Negative tilt, positive, neutral. Norlun trough, convective feedback. Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Hitting the inverted trough hard on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Overall it's not much better than 18z but I thought it was better aloft. Starting to run out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS still east. This one is the books guys. Might be able to scratch a couple inches of slop from the inverted trough, but this is game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 no its reality I might have entertained the notion; but your avatar makes it quite simply impossible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS pbp? East, west, same. Ridge stronger, weaker. More elongated, less. Heights rising, not rising, Negative tilt, positive, neutral. Norlun trough, convective feedback. Bermuda. The psych ward is two blocks to the left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.