JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think all of the "it's dead" posters have logged off until the next model runs, when they can come back first for any glimmer of hope, and if that fails, to tell everyone how they told us so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Snow in DC, Boston, CT, LI....doesn't mean a thing to me. I'm not that big a weather fan that I care what happens hundreds of miles from me. I wanna know if a storm will affect me and my family, my coworkers etc. New England getting snow might as well be China for all I care. That's the fact Jack, for most people in the world. You can find interesting storms anywhere on the planet if you look for them I guess. Worthless post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Agree with Don - well said. Most people on this board (and in general) have very little understanding of uncertainty and probabilistic risk analysis. Sure, at this point, the evidence is weighted towards most of this forum mostly missing this storm (except east of NYC), but knowing that this is likely to be a monster storm that is currently not being modeled perfectly, especially given that the disturbances that will coalesce to form this monster are over 3000 miles away, there is some decent possibility that the track will end up west of where most models are showing it now. Maybe a 25% chance. And playing the hypothetical "what if" game, then it would also be likely an equal 25% chance of the track ending up east of where most models are showing, since all things being equal, unless one has specific knowledge of known tendencies of the models, expecting one deviation (east) to be more likely than another in the opposite direction (west) is illogical. If one accepts those two probabilities of deviation (and maybe they're 10% likely in each direction - I really don't know, but I'm sure they're symmetrical around the current track), that would then mean there's probably a 50% chance of it tracking just about where it's progged now (and when I say now, I mean by the 12Z runs, not one run of the 18Z GFS, which I've never seen any pro make any conclusion on). My point in all of this is those people saying "it's dead" or "it's over" when the best pros on the planet at the WPC and the NWS say otherwise, are simply behaving like emotionally petulant children. They may end up being correct, but not for any scientific reason and they're completely wrong in dismissing the possibility of a westward deviation in the track. Far too much uncertainty, still, to dismiss this threat for NYC and at least much of NJ. If we're still in this spot tomorrow night, then, yeah, it's probably time to give it up, but not yet. If a sub 960 SLP misses you by 150 miles to you`re EAST I know its a bitter pill . But the reality is the models and especially the Euro ensembles saw this 8 to 9 days away . If you think of the distance this had to travel and it was picked up on over 200 hours away its an OUTSTANDING job if it only misses by that much . I know that doesn't bring the miss ee solice , but numerical modeling over that landscape inside that envelope can`t be viewed as a miss IMO . If the model misses by 150 miles inside 48 hours then you can scold it . But up until now its been placed into a tight spot , so I have to give it`s due , even if I just get fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Snow in DC, Boston, CT, LI....doesn't mean a thing to me. I'm not that big a weather fan that I care what happens hundreds of miles from me. I wanna know if a storm will affect me and my family, my coworkers etc. New England getting snow might as well be China for all I care. That's the fact Jack, for most people in the world. You can find interesting storms anywhere on the planet if you look for them I guess. This is a weather forum, and we discuss all sorts of weather for all people in our region. Posts only about one's own backyard are counterproductive to the purpose of this forum and ruin discussion. Saying "it's over for everybody" couldn't be any more wrong, considering we have lots of people who live on Long Island who are still in the game for a moderate to even significant snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Snow in DC, Boston, CT, LI....doesn't mean a thing to me. I'm not that big a weather fan that I care what happens hundreds of miles from me. I wanna know if a storm will affect me and my family, my coworkers etc. New England getting snow might as well be China for all I care. That's the fact Jack, for most people in the world. You can find interesting storms anywhere on the planet if you look for them I guess.That's not what I meant. Obviously people care about what will happen to them and their area. My point is about the people who are out of the game, who come in to a model thread posting "its dead" or " its going east!!!!" Just because they are out doesn't mean others are. If your backyard is out of the game, no need to post that stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think all of the "it's dead" posters have logged off until the next model runs, when they can come back first for any glimmer of hope, and if that fails, to tell everyone how they told us so.This is not about the "told you" but rather discussing reality.If you see 50 models runs off the coast by 200 miles, it is a near miss. One run of the euro in 10 that gives you snow supports the idea of a miss in NYC. Not one GFS run has been a hit. Overall a kick in the nutz. As my brother in Chareston text me, long range euro looks great, warm temps with a warm Gulf Stream for fishing. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is not about the "told you" but rather discussing reality. If you see 50 models runs off the coast by 200 miles, it is a near miss. One run of the euro in 10 that gives you snow supports the idea of a miss in NYC. Not one GFS run has been a hit. Overall a kick in the nutz. As ny brother in Chareston text me, long range euro looks great, warm temps with a warm Gulf Stream for fishing. Best I guess what I am missing is that if you live E of NYC you can't participate in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I guess what I am missing is that if you live E of NYC you can't participate in this subforum. Sure, but I would be shocked if eastern Long Island got more than 2 inches. If there is a threat of 4 inches or more out on eastern LI and it becomes reality, I will use 2 vacations day and travel and drink beer in a local pub and post photos thus week. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sure, but I would be shocked if eastern Long Island got more than 2 inches. If there is a threat of 4 inches or more out on eastern LI and it becomes reality, I will use 2 vacations day and travel and drink beer in a local pub and post photos thus week. Best That's some incredible self-punishment right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That's some incredible self-punishment right there. He basically goes on vacation if he loses his bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sure, but I would be shocked if eastern Long Island got more than 2 inches. If there is a threat of 4 inches or more out on eastern LI and it becomes reality, I will use 2 vacations day and travel and drink beer in a local pub and post photos thus week. Best So when would you head out there? Before the storm? What constitutes your definition of reality? Because the majority of model solutions would advise you to make your travel plans now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Any info on the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That's some incredible self-punishment right there. It would be, any good pubs out on the fork near a B&B or small town. 5 hours from my house. May need to start planning. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Any info on the nam? Yeah, it's out of it's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I might be grasping for straws, but the 0z NAM has a stronger rex block, slightly better +PNA ridge than the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Any info on the nam? Looking somewhat better through 54 but its the nam so who know what it will show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I might be grasping for straws, but the 0z NAM has a stronger rex block, slightly better +PNA ridge than the 18z GFS I think we can start looking at the sub 60 frames anything after that seems to be crap shoot lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What is the definition of eastern Long Island because to me as i live here that would be Riverhead and east. To someone from NYC eastern Long Island could be Nassau county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The nam is really focusing on the thunderstorms off central Florida and pops up the low over them, I doubt that will be the right placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What is the definition of eastern Long Island because to me as i live here that would be Riverhead and east. To someone from NYC eastern Long Island could be Nassau county. Or apparently even CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I consider it east of Islip, twin forks is far eastern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The nam is really focusing on the thunderstorms off central Florida and pops up the low over them, I doubt that will be the right placement It won't be able to handle this storm until very close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The trough is sharper this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The nam is really focusing on the thunderstorms off central Florida and pops up the low over them, I doubt that will be the right placementClassic convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I too often wonder about this..as I live in mount Sinai north central Suffolk, I consider eastern Long Island as about where I am on east. What is the definition of eastern Long Island because to me as i live here that would be Riverhead and east. To someone from NYC eastern Long Island could be Nassau county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 00Z NAM - LOOKS BOTH SOUTH AND EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW MIGHT GET INTO NYC BRIEFLY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Lol the nam has a low over Bermuda one east of VA and one east of the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 00Z NAM - LOOKS BOTH SOUTH AND EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW MIGHT GET INTO NYC BRIEFLY.. Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Has over one inch qpf over Southern Delmarva and over. 50 qpf back through DC, Baltimore and into near Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Is an inverted trough possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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