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3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Minor improvements on the NAM vs. 6z run. Trough is less positively tilted at hr 54, and further east. PV noticeably further north and east vs. 6z. Allows the qpf further 25 - 50 miles north or so. Obviously not enough to get excited about, but something to just watch.

 

There is no doubt that without the miserable overdig at 500mb this thing would end up hitting us because the PV ultimately is lifting out at 42 hours, we'd likely get hit from 45-54 if this storm had not overdug and ejected out at 500.

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Minor improvements on the NAM vs. 6z run. Trough is less positively tilted at hr 54, and further east. PV noticeably further north and east vs. 6z. Allows the qpf further 25 - 50 miles north or so. Obviously not enough to get excited about, but something to just watch.

Not saying we will get anything out of this but at least it didn't get any worse.  Nothing positive transpired whatsoever once the southward trend began during the early March storm.

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Not saying we will get anything out of this but at least it didn't get any worse. Nothing positive transpired whatsoever once the southward trend began during the early March storm.

I agree, if I lived in NYC or south I would still watch this one for a couple inches on the northern fringe.

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GFS not far from getting a few inches into the city. moreso with last night's ggem. there's still time to trend. for NYC south i'm still holding off on going into "total disgust mode."

Ukmet is decent enough for NYC and south. 1"-3" for the boroughs and LI and 3"-6" south of that.

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Upton is still calling for 1-2" from this storm, primarily on Monday. Based on the discussions on this forum, is that kinda bullish at this point?

It's still a day and a half away, so they are covering themselves, but this system can still shift northward, not saying it will, but there's still some time.

WX/PT

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It's very hard to get a storm up here with a trough that positivitly tilted. The only thing I will say is that the second storm needs to be watched.

This whole setup is a congealed mess of moving parts. Some of which are still over the Pacific.

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The high to the north isn't the problem. The trough orientation is what's killing us. The models trended towards phasing too much energy with the vorticy over Central Mexico.

The Northern edge cutoff is most certainly due to the Arctic high/pv providing confluence on the northern edge. The trough orientation is what is making the system move South. In a sense both parties here are correct.

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High to the north has trended weaker so a trend back north is still possible

Yes. It's very noticeable from 12z GFS yesterday to 6z GFS today. GFS has been taking very small steps since yesterday afternoon. The low pressure system is now consolidated east of OBX vs. a strung out cold front look, as we saw on March 2nd/3rd.

 

The trough really is the problem now. The confluence alone isn't enough to keep this south of our area. For context, NWS has a forecast high of 30 on Monday, whereas on March 3rd, my location barely made it to 20 during the day. Clearly there is a far less suppressive influence this time around.

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Yes. It's very noticeable from 12z GFS yesterday to 6z GFS today. GFS has been taking very small steps since yesterday afternoon. The low pressure system is now consolidated east of OBX vs. a strung out cold front look, as we saw on March 2nd/3rd.

 

The trough really is the problem now. The confluence alone isn't enough to keep this south of our area. For context, NWS has a forecast high of 30 on Monday, whereas on March 3rd, my location barely made it to 20 during the day. Clearly there is a far less suppressive influence this time around.

 

Given the small steps northward the GFS took, I understand why Upton has kept 1-2" in the forecast for NYC metro.  Canadian is similar in QPF outputs with its latest run.  If forced to make a forecast right now, I'd say coating to 1" likely for NYC/LI...2-4" possible central Jersey, flurries north of city.

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