IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Please reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Please reverse psychology im starting to worry about you! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well I can finally wash my car now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It was obvious 18 hours in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It was obvious 18 hours inlol hopefully your method works for the entire 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM put way more energy on back side of trough (as expected) will likely be south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Judging off the SREF plumes NAM should still be good. I'm thinking ONAM is the operational NAM on the SREF plumes and it shows .94, .92, and .98 for EWR, LGA and JFK respectively. I could be wrong though, so please do not quote me if someone could answer that though that would be great. EDIT: Nevermind my question is answered below, those values are for the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Judging off the SREF plumes NAM should still be good. i dont know, looks like it will be pretty south to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Judging off the SREF plumes NAM should still be good. I'm thinking ONAM is the operational NAM on the SREF plumes and it shows .94, .92, and .98 for EWR, LGA and JFK respectively. I could be wrong though, so please do not quote me if someone could answer that though that would be great. That's not how it works. 18Z NAM is in the 21Z SREF plume. 0Z will be in the 3Z plume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 That's not how it works. 18Z NAM is in the 21Z SREF plume. 0Z will be in the 3Z plume Thanks, I was not sure how it works I knew it was the NAM but didn't know which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 You can see it getting pushed south 36 hours compared to 12z. Not gonna make it up the coast Sent from my iPhone I think im more interested in wave 2 at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think im more interested in wave 2 at this point Isn't that looking dead on all the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Thank god for that lead vorticy, it does help to push things north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Thanks, I was not sure how it works I knew it was the NAM but didn't know which one.[/quote No problem. It's a confusing concept because the ONAM data gets released 4.5 hours before the SREF it's included in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is going to be way south, way way south. Short of a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Thank god for that lead vorticy, it does help to push things north some. it's not going to matter unless you're in DC or south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If someone told me we were going to missed two storms during march because of suppression.. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If someone told me we were going to missed two storms during march because of suppression.. wow unless you knew the #1 analog was March 1980-everything missed us that month and crushed VA/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This storm and 3/3 are suppressed for two completely seperate reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Isn't that looking dead on all the models? Gfs gave it some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This storm has had solid hydrostatic model consensus since the ggem caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 maybe NYC can set a record for least QPF in March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What a disaster. It went from a huge storm to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What a disaster. It went from a huge storm to nothing on the NAM. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What a disaster. It went from a huge storm to nothing. you cant be surprised after the other models today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What a disaster. It went from a huge storm to nothing. To be fair, I'm guessing you mean the NAM, if not the EURO never really had a big storm in the medium range, it had some crazy runs in the LR when it was bringing all the energy out, but then it changed. This one stings, because knowing what could have been if all the energy came out, ughhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If you saw the 4k NAM simulated radar at hour 48 you would think we were about to get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 To be fair, I'm guessing you mean the NAM, if not the EURO never really had a big storm in the medium range, it had some crazy runs in the LR when it was bringing all the energy out, but then it changed. This one stings, because knowing what could have been if all the energy came out, ughhh. I know you were really feeling this one. I dunno, I keep hearing that it's all about the sw digging, but that high just keeps getting further and further south every run. And not just resulting from the weaker energy, early on you can see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If you saw the 4k NAM simulated radar at hour 48 you would think we were about to get slammed. why ? please explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If you saw the 4k NAM simulated radar at hour 48 you would think we were about to get slammed.Yes.....another tease. Even on the regular NAM run it looks like a wall of snow, but never pulls itself together, even for south of here reallySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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