REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18z GFS should be atleast midly interesting but we'll see. as expected the "toss the NAM" posts are present so that isn't surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Look how juiced the 700mb RH field is, this really argues for more moisture to make it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Look how juiced the 700mb RH field is, this really argues for more moisture to make it further north. im just hesitant at this time to really buy into the 12z suite in its entirety. literally almost all models made a substantial jump at once and the GGEM probably the most drastic. whether its working out that way or not is yet to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SW trough on the 18Z RGEM not as deep as compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 temper yourselves...how many times have we seen the NAM do this at this range only to back off and align with the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wish I could post what the US simulated 4k NAM radar looks like at hour 60. It shows a solid slug of moisture stretching all the way from the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SW trough on the 18Z RGEM not as deep as compared to the NAM. I honestly don't think the RGEM is much different than the 18z NAM at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wish I could post what the US simulated 4k NAM radar looks like at hour 60. It shows a solid slug of moisture stretching all the way from the Bay of Campeche. we are still FAR from a final solution I think yanks. the 12z suite might've buried the hatchet for the storm or just confirmed all the models are still having a hard time with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run is a great example of what can happen if the trough can still escape east rather than diving into Mexico hook, line and sinker like the globals did. this run is a great example of why you dont look at the nam past 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we are still FAR from a final solution I think yanks. the 12z suite might've buried the hatchet for the storm or just confirmed all the models are still having a hard time with this system I'm slightly hopeful that perhaps the models hit rock bottom at 12z and over corrected a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 this run is a great example of why you dont look at the nam past 36 hrs These posts irk me so much. The NAM is a perfectly good model if you know how to read it. People that just want to automatically dismiss it haven't been following weather for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 These posts irk me so much. The NAM is a perfectly good model if you know how to read it. bingo and the RGEM thus far looks like it wants to go lock step with the NAM. we all know the NAM isn't the best but like all models it has its weak and strong points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 bingo and the RGEM thus far looks like it wants to go lock step with the NAM. we all know the NAM isn't the best but like all models it has its weak and strong points Hoping the NAM scores one here just out of pure principle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 These posts irk me so much. The NAM is a perfectly good model if you know how to read it. People that just want to automatically dismiss it haven't been following weather for very long. Yes...The interesting thing to me is the NAM has been pretty decent this year and actually had a few semi coups besides a run or 2. IDK I hope is that the models over corrected just like when the gfs shifted north 100 miles with the 3/3 storm before shifting south 300 miles in subsequent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hoping the NAM scores one here just out of pure principle. I was just saying that ALL models usually have their flaws and the NAM isn't all that bad. if we had the NAVGEM instead of the NAM then....well you get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yes...The interesting thing to me is the NAM has been pretty decent this year and actually had a few semi coups besides a run or 2. IDK I hope is that the models over corrected just like when the gfs shifted north 100 miles with the 3/3 storm before shifting south 300 miles in subsequent runs The good news is that we should know by the 12z runs tomorrow. Wouldn't shock me if this trended back more favorably. I'm not expecting much out of the 18z GFS. Out of all the models the 18z GFS has the lowest verification scores of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The good news is that we should know by the 12z runs tomorrow. Wouldn't shock me if this trended back more favorably. I'm not expecting much out of the 18z GFS. Out of all the models the 18z GFS has the lowest verification scores of all. Yea, I just would like to see the PV a little weaker and it a little more progressive with the energy and not trend more in the other direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 for middlesex county, mt. holly going with 1-3" snow sunday night.... and then "snow" monday. 80% pop. snow map 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not sure if its been discussed but I'm curious what the nam does after 84 hrs. SE ridge looks like it might want to try and deflect the surface low North? 850 low looks super... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I was just saying that ALL models usually have their flaws and the NAM isn't all that bad. if we had the NAVGEM instead of the NAM then....well you get it The 12z NAVGEM gets precip up to Philly, that's a really good sign as it was only a tick south of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wish I could post what the US simulated 4k NAM radar looks like at hour 60. It shows a solid slug of moisture stretching all the way from the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not sure if its been discussed but I'm curious what the nam does after 84 hrs. SE ridge looks like it might want to try and deflect the surface low North? 850 low looks super... To me it looks like the 18z NAM would send at least part of that our way. But it's been handling that part of the storm differently on every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 nam4km.png Thanks, yeah, that's pretty close to the graphic that I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We're not talking about a 1040mb high in January here. Sure it's a lobe of the PV but it's nowhere near as strong as what we saw around the beginning of March. If not for this PV the low would have probably cut to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Here comes the 18z GFS and pure torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Here comes the 18z GFS and pure torture.would you say the gfs has been consistent, trending, or erratic? I have hardly looked at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I really, really hate to even post this because it was obviously a very anomalous storm, but anyone else see the similarities here to the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 BAM. UPTON: THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NORTHERN TREND IN THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA FROM SUNY SB SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...HOWEVER TODAYS 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS INTERESTINGLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS INCONSISTENCY STEMS FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT JUST MOVED ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW US. DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF...WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH AS IT COULD BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER AND THE MARCH 3RD STORM OR BETTER THE NON-STORM IS STILL IN RECENT MEMORY. THE HIGH DURING THAT EVENT WAS ABOUT 10 MB STRONGER THAN IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FOR THIS ONE. WHILE THE 00Z/14 GEFS..NAEFS AND EC ENS MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. A COMPARISON OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE H5 FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PAC NW CAN BE MADE AS WELL AND DETERMINATION IF THESE NRN TRACK SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE OR NOT. THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TO THE N WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR NEEDED FOR A SNOW EVENT...BUT THIS TOO COULD BECOME QUESTIONABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THE SPREAD IN THE ENS MEANS COMES TO FRUITION. AM NOT JUMPING ON THE SUPPRESSED SOLNS YET SINCE THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE SURE IF WE WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES) IN A OVERRUNNING PATTERN...BUT THE HIGHER QPF VALUES ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IT IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 would you say the gfs has been consistent, trending, or erratic? I have hardly looked at it. Consistently bad for our area. It hasn't shown a good storm for our area in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I really, really hate to even post this because it was obviously a very anomalous storm, but anyone else see the similarities here to the NAM? pretty damn close man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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