Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yikes, this run isn't even that good for DC. Huh? Its a good run for them honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Honestly, just end this constant teaser pattern. If a massive ridge was to pop up overhead tomorrow and give us a definite end to this, I'd be thrilled. Yeah, this is getting tiresome. Maybe when (if?) the PV finally starts losing its grip, we can get a system to head our way, though. Meh... I don't mind having things to track, but I wouldn't mind a complete pattern shift either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Destroyed by suppression twice in the month of March has to be nearly unheard of for this area. Maybe March 1980? While it is suppressed, I think it has more to do with the the ridge in the West, and how the shortwaves phased...If they would have phased in a better configuration I don't think the PV would have mattered, we saw what could have been on some of those crazy GGEM/NAM/JMA runs for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Huh? Its a good run for them honestly. It's only ~0.75". I don't consider that to be a great run for them. The snow is moderate at best and it falls during the day on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hypocrisy strikes again. What if things were the opposite right now where all the models said no storm for numerous runs and then all of the sudden we see one suite of runs where they all show a huge hit, you think people would question those runs? Complete and utter hypocrisy on here, ridiculous. If the 0z suite show the exact same thing as 12z the you got me but let's not jump the gun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Without a massive turnaround at 0z, it's over. Everything should be on the playing field by then and well sampled. I agree. When we wake up tomorrow we will know our fate. Northern stream should be fully sampled by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Huh? Its a good run for them honestly. Based on the comments in their thread, it's about 0.9" QPF for DC. Places just south are 1"+. The same spots that jackpotted on March 3rd would jackpot again, while flurries would struggle to make it to NYC. Unbelievable. Nothing's worse than suppression patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 While it is suppressed, I think it has more to do with the the ridge in the West, and how the shortwaves phased...If they would have phased in a better configuration I don't think the PV would have mattered, we saw what could have been on some of those crazy GGEM/NAM/JMA runs for example. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 In my eyes this is a MAJOR shift south on all global models. Im not sure this might be correct though being that its a large scale change in a short period of time. Still holding out the slightest and lessening hope this may turn into something yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's not hard to tell whats going on, the PV is once again stronger than modeled. Simple as that, and why people thought it was clear most were in for a snowstorm 3-4 days after the last mishap...I will never know why. I knew this would eventually happen, wasn't hard to see it. The energy isn't ejecting quick enough here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hypocrisy strikes again. What if things were the opposite right now where all the models said no storm for numerous runs and then all of the sudden we see one suite of runs where they all show a huge hit, you think people would question those runs? Complete and utter hypocrisy on here, ridiculous. If the 0z suite show the exact same thing as 12z the you got me but let's not jump the gun here. That's not hypocrisy, that's a double standard. Anyway... Yes, we'd absolutely question those runs. Fortunately, we've acknowledged for days that a few very specific things need to happen to produce a storm, and even the most optimistic models were still dubious and left many folks straddling the northern edge. When things go from dismal to somewhat intriguing and back to dismal, morale will not be high. If we had another 84 or 102 hours or something to play with, it would be different... unfortunately we're rapidly closing in on crunch time for the source energy to do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, this is getting tiresome. Maybe when (if?) the PV finally starts losing its grip, we can get a system to head our way, though. Meh... I don't mind having things to track, but I wouldn't mind a complete pattern shift either. I have seen this before. When the PV finally gives up it will be 80 degrees with sun. It doesn't usually just relax, it moves completely out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 For those of you who aren't old enough to remember the good old 1980 s the model breakdowns you've been going through in the last 3 weeks was common place for many of us during that whole decade. So I feel ur pain. Happens even today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's not hard to tell whats going on, the PV is once again stronger than modeled. Simple as that, and why people thought it was clear most were in for a snowstorm 3-4 days after the last mishap...I will never know why. I knew this would eventually happen, wasn't hard to see it. The energy isn't ejecting quick enough here.. The patterns very often repeat. That is the truth. History repeats itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's not hard to tell whats going on, the PV is once again stronger than modeled. Simple as that, and why people thought it was clear most were in for a snowstorm 3-4 days after the last mishap...I will never know why. I knew this would eventually happen, wasn't hard to see it. The energy isn't ejecting quick enough here.. Stop keeping this info from the govt and fix the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 For those of you who aren't old enough to remember the good old 1980 s the model breakdowns you've been going through in the last 3 weeks was common place for many of us during that whole decade. So I feel ur pain. Happens even today. Which is simply amazing that over 30 years ago models were doing the same thing they are now in 2014. You would have thought there would be a supermodel by now that is basically right now, but we will have to wait on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So will the northern energy be fully sampled for the 00z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's not hypocrisy, that's a double standard. Anyway... Yes, we'd absolutely question those runs. Fortunately, we've acknowledged for days that a few very specific things need to happen to produce a storm, and even the most optimistic models were still dubious and left many folks straddling the northern edge. When things go from dismal to somewhat intriguing and back to dismal, morale will not be high. If we had another 84 or 102 hours or something to play with, it would be different... unfortunately we're rapidly closing in on crunch time for the source energy to do its thing. lol Sure. Maybe a couple would but most will be like game on. Again the PV is not the issue. If the PV weren't there or further north, then this would cut and we would torch. It has everything to with the ridging and energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's not hard to tell whats going on, the PV is once again stronger than modeled. Simple as that, and why people thought it was clear most were in for a snowstorm 3-4 days after the last mishap...I will never know why. I knew this would eventually happen, wasn't hard to see it. The energy isn't ejecting quick enough here.. The PV looks to be in the same spot, I think the energy is not as strong as what the NAM/GGEM were modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Stop keeping this info from the govt and fix the models. I am not saying I told you so at all, cause I didn't come out and say it to the forum, but it wasn't hard to see the pattern is progressive and did not fit what the models were showing. If you didn't see that, your simply wishing for the models to be correct in the depiction that showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Which is simply amazing that over 30 years ago models were doing the same thing they are now in 2014. You would have thought there would be a supermodel by now that is basically right now, but we will have to wait on that. I think we hav made quantum leaps since then but the truth is trying to numerically solve the atmosphere on a global scale will require a few more quantum leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think we hav made quantum leaps since then but the truth is trying to numerically solve the atmosphere on a global scale will require a few more quantum leaps. Yeah, hope they are made during my lifetime, or I might go completely crazy looking at some of these models lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, hope they are made during my lifetime, or I might go completely crazy looking at some of these models lol. Funding has a lot to do with that otherwise we'd already have much better models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think we hav made quantum leaps since then but the truth is trying to numerically solve the atmosphere on a global scale will require a few more quantum leaps. The models are constantly getting better. They are noticeably better today than in 2008 and light years better than in 2000. But we also have tons more data to look at and expectations for accuracy get higher and higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I am not saying I told you so at all, cause I didn't come out and say it to the forum, but it wasn't hard to see the pattern is progressive and did not fit what the models were showing. If you didn't see that, your simply wishing for the models to be correct in the depiction that showed. Huh....the energy is held back....thats not progressive....its the pv which is rare in winter and unheard of in mid March to do this with storms this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I am not saying I told you so at all, cause I didn't come out and say it to the forum, but it wasn't hard to see the pattern is progressive and did not fit what the models were showing. If you didn't see that, your simply wishing for the models to be correct in the depiction that showed. You said that we are not getting a storm because of the pv being stronger than modeled. This is quite incorrect. The PV as modeled is in a great position for us to receive a storm. Before puffing your chest out read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Huh....the energy is held back....thats not progressive....its the pv which is so rare in winter and unheard of in mid March It's not like we've been breaking tons of cold records this winter or this month. It's been persistently cold but not necessarily record breaking. The PV was strong for the first week of March but the weather has been more typical of March this week minus one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Funding has a lot to do with that otherwise we'd already have much better models today. If one of us becomes a billionare in the next few years we should make our own model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We are getting close to cutoff low season, but that can't happen until the PV retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some of you are saying its the PV and some are saying its due to better sampling out west which results in a more sheared out system...which is it?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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