IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's not like we've been breaking tons of cold records this winter or this month. It's been persistently cold but not necessarily record breaking. The PV was strong for the first week of March but the weather has been more typical of March this week minus one day. I mean for nyc to break records its very rare with the uhi but this cold is very rare i think there were near 3000 record lows broken in the first week alone, and just look at the great lakes still 85% frozen in mid march higher than any point in this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's the pv which is rare in winter and unheard of in mid March to do this with storms this far south. It's not as rare as you make it out to be. The last "Big" PV winter was 94 but it does ocassionally make it's presence known and felt. And the average date for it to relax it's hold is around April 10th based on averages over the years. This has been one of the stronger PV's as of late but by no means the worst. I think at this point the models are having a hard time dealing with the seasonal changes taking place and also the energy out west not being fully/correctly taken into account. Jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's not the whole event. This is closer: .50" line to NYC, which is half of the previous run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Every single model went south including the useless SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I mean for nyc to break records its very rare with the uhi but this cold is very rare i think there were near 3000 record lows broken in the first week alone, and just look at the great lakes still 85% frozen in mid march higher than any point in this time frame You need a strong PV in March if you want to see all snow, how else are you gonna get the cold air in. Again the PV is not the problem with this, not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 In short we just got another boxing day blizzard redux, this time we may very well get the shaft. Thank you mother nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You need a strong PV in March if you want to see all snow, how else are you gonna get the cold air in. Again the PV is not the problem with this, not at all. Im not saying you don't need PV interaction but its not helping being this far south, you can easily see how it squashes the heights more than if it was a little further north. Just look at the GFS VS NAM @ 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 One saving grace the euro has been horrible this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 One saving grace the euro has been horrible this winter! One model or another has generally been horrible with every storm even if you exclude the NAM, exactly why I'm suspicious of this 12Z suite til I see the 00Z one tonight show the same, every model swinging one way and agreeing is somewhat unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 One model or another has generally been horrible with every storm even if you exclude the NAM, exactly why I'm suspicious of this 12Z suite til I see the 00Z one tonight show the same, every model swinging one way and agreeing is somewhat unusual. Comforting that a pro like you says its not over. Patience is often the key to life & so wait we shall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM and NAM-derived SREFs are pathetic beyond 24 hours. Shouldn't be a shocker they would lurch south by 200 miles in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So every model moved south.. waiting for the NAM to do the same.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 One model or another has generally been horrible with every storm even if you exclude the NAM, exactly why I'm suspicious of this 12Z suite til I see the 00Z one tonight show the same, every model swinging one way and agreeing is somewhat unusual. Something in the 12z data caused every model to initialize the same and react the same. We have seen an entire suite do this many times in the past. Sometimes, it's an over-correction from false data and sometimes it's a perfect correction. I think even the 18z runs will be telling. Specifically, the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You need a strong PV in March if you want to see all snow, how else are you gonna get the cold air in. Again the PV is not the problem with this, not at all. And that's exactly why it's tough to get snow in March, especially towards the latter half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Something in the 12z data caused every model to initialize the same and react the same. We have seen an entire suite do this many times in the past. Sometimes, it's an over-correction from false data and sometimes it's a perfect correction. I think even the 18z runs will be telling. Specifically, the GFS. Our last chance will be the 0z runs. If they don't come back north and probably significantly north since the PV asserted itself more and more leading up to the March 3 storm, it's almost certainly a done deal. I believe BWI may have a shot at passing Central Park if they get this storm and we don't. They're fairly close if I'm not mistaken, well over 40 inches this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And that's exactly why it's tough to get snow in March, especially towards the latter half of the month. Getting shafted by a sheared out to crap low and a strong PV twice in two weeks in March is extremely unusual. Even 09-10 in a borderline strong Nino couldn't do that to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Our last chance will be the 0z runs. If they don't come back north and probably significantly north since the PV asserted itself more and more leading up to the March 3 storm, it's almost certainly a done deal. I believe BWI may have a shot at passing Central Park if they get this storm and we don't. They're fairly close if I'm not mistaken, well over 40 inches this winter. BWI is only 30.07" for the season. NYC is nearly double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Getting shafted by a sheared out to crap low and a strong PV twice in two weeks in March is extremely unusual. Even 09-10 in a borderline strong Nino couldn't do that to us. I will say that not all hope will be lost until 0z the earliest tonight. It was very odd to see ALL the models shift south like that, whether it'll be true or not is yet to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Our last chance will be the 0z runs. If they don't come back north and probably significantly north since the PV asserted itself more and more leading up to the March 3 storm, it's almost certainly a done deal. I believe BWI may have a shot at passing Central Park if they get this storm and we don't. They're fairly close if I'm not mistaken, well over 40 inches this winter. No, they only have 31 or so...as this stands now this is a 3-5 inch storm for the ground zero areas I think if it happens as shown now...its a fast mover and the models as we saw on the 3/2 event down there almost always overdo QPF, especially on fast moving storms beyond 36 hours...remember some outlets went 10-14 inches and with the exception of a small area that did not verify...we only went 4-6 at the office and ended up very close on that...the best way to get widespread 6 plus with this sucker is for the NAM solution to verify, a big time phase drawing in plenty of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And that's exactly why it's tough to get snow in March, especially towards the latter half of the month. It's very tough because you need a strong PV but a nice phased system as well to really deliver up here, both variables have to interact rather than detract from one another otherwise you either see a storm cut or be suppressed. This is why February is generally the best month for snows because you don't need very strong PV in place to get cold as it's still cold enough for snow generally and you don't need a system to phase in either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's actually EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE that all of the models made a huge move south in tandem! Very very rare Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sorry, BWI is 30.07" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's actually EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE that all of the models made a huge move south in tandem! Very very rare Sent from my iPhone I remember just 2 cases vividly anyhow of this occurring, the Boxing Day storm and a storm on 3/6/08 that nailed N Texas...the 12Z runs on 3/5 all destroyed OKC/TUL with in some cases over a foot of snow, they all unanimously swung 150-200 miles north at least, the 00Z runs then took a dive back to the south, even further than before, the 18s may have started slowly going back the other way too...there was many theories tossed around to why it occurred...some blamed a bad Mexican RAOB and many thought that held the most water.....I should add I believe with the February 2013 storm we also had a model run, I think a 00Z run where all models swung and missed as the energy came ashore, and we all thought it was over and then they completely went back the other way gradually thereafter...that was a classic overcorrection scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's actually EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE that all of the models made a huge move south in tandem! Very very rare Sent from my iPhone well.... except for that short yellow bus going in the opposite direction... aka the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's actually EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE that all of the models made a huge move south in tandem! Very very rare Sent from my iPhone Agreed, there's always usually a few that hold out so it seems a bit suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No, they only have 31 or so...as this stands now this is a 3-5 inch storm for the ground zero areas I think if it happens as shown now...its a fast mover and the models as we saw on the 3/2 event down there almost always overdo QPF, especially on fast moving storms beyond 36 hours...remember some outlets went 10-14 inches and with the exception of a small area that did not verify...we only went 4-6 at the office and ended up very close on that...the best way to get widespread 6 plus with this sucker is for the NAM solution to verify, a big time phase drawing in plenty of moisture. OK, in that case never mind about BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Total QPF for NYC on the 09z SREF mean was 1.50"+ Total QPF for NYC on the 15z SREF mean is 0.50"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Total QPF for NYC on the 09z SREF mean was 1.50"+ Total QPF for NYC on the 15z SREF mean is 0.50"+. Any guesses for 21z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's actually EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE that all of the models made a huge move south in tandem! Very very rare Sent from my iPhone Thats what has me concerned that maybe the models possibly ingested bad data or they actually latched onto something. Never thought id say this but 18z suite may actually be interesting and telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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