IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18z NAM and 18z GFS diverge drastically at hour 21. NAM sends the northern energy towards the Dakotas and the GFS sends the energy to eastern Utah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Through hour 36 the GFS still looks nothing like the NAM. Pretty much the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The spacing between the two waves might be a little closer, that's helping to amp things up a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Closed off 500mb contour over extreme SW MO. 12z didn't do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Closed off 500mb contour over extreme SW MO. 12z didn't do this. This run has that lead vort more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run is starting to diverge now from 12z post hour 36. The trough is more amplified. This is looking better. Cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run has that lead vort more amped. Yeah, that's what the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Upton says don't give up yet . THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NORTHERN TREND IN THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA FROM SUNY SB SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...HOWEVER TODAYS 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS INTERESTINGLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS INCONSISTENCY STEMS FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT JUST MOVED ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW US. DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF...WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH AS IT COULD BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER AND THE MARCH 3RD STORM OR BETTER THE NON-STORM IS STILL IN RECENT MEMORY. THE HIGH DURING THAT EVENT WAS ABOUT 10 MB STRONGER THAN IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FOR THIS ONE.WHILE THE 00Z/14 GEFS..NAEFS AND EC ENS MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. A COMPARISON OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE H5 FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PAC NW CAN BE MADE AS WELL AND DETERMINATION IF THESE NRN TRACK SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE OR NOT. THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TO THE N WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR NEEDED FOR A SNOW EVENT...BUT THIS TOO COULD BECOME QUESTIONABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THE SPREAD IN THE ENS MEANS COMES TO FRUITION.AM NOT JUMPING ON THE SUPPRESSED SOLNS YET SINCE THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE SURE IF WE WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES) IN A OVERRUNNING PATTERN...BUT THE HIGHER QPF VALUES ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IT IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Pretty large differences now a loft at hour 48, the trough is much more neutral tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Been following along and I find it educational and entertaining..and I understand mainstream weather predictions are frowned upon here. With that said, I'm noticing that while you are all fir thr most part saying this is trending to move south of us (I'm on the border of Warren and Morris counties), Weather Channel has a 70% chance if snow for Monday, Accuweather is at 35% and NOAA has it at 70% of snow Sunday night into Monday until 2 pm. And NOAA has gone as far as saying 1 to 3 inches for Sunday night. Seems like nobody can agree on anything with this storm. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Two separate closed off 500mb contours. This is the kind of run that looks like a transition run as the model makes a gradual shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Pretty large differences now a loft at hour 48, the trough is much more neutral tilted. noticeably better than 12z GFS and also closes off around MO which 12z didn't have as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Whatever the final outcome, this run was completely different than 12z at H5. It should raise a few eyebrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Assuming Yanks is correct, y'all may indeed have a reason to hold on until 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At hour 60 the closed 500mb trough is over Eastern TX with snow creeping up into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Whatever the final outcome, this run was completely different than 12z at H5. It should raise a few eyebrows. was stated earlier the 12z suite may have been a fluke, and I emphasize "MAY" this is the 18z suite we are talking about after all but it does agree with the NAM almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If the trough manages to go negative tilted over the deep south all of that moisture will be directed up the coast and we'll have a straight shot from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 was stated earlier the 12z suite may have been a fluke, and I emphasize "MAY" this is the 18z suite we are talking about after all but it does agree with the NAM almostlets wait.. but i dont think it was a fluke. All the models that had this storm north..moved south.. so there is something .. hopefully that something changes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If the trough manages to go negative tilted over the deep south all of that moisture will be directed up the coast and we'll have a straight shot from the Gulf. it would be tantalizingly close even if it doesn't do it this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 was stated earlier the 12z suite may have been a fluke, and I emphasize "MAY" this is the 18z suite we are talking about after all but it does agree with the NAM almost It's going to be just a bit too far south this run, at least with the initial wave, but it was a step towards a better solution for us. I'm intrigued to see what it does now with all this energy over the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Slight improvement on the 18z GFS but not enough. Onto the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's going to be just a bit too far south this run, at least with the initial wave, but it was a step towards a better solution for us. I'm intrigued to see what it does now with all this energy over the deep south. looking at 12z and 18z GFS 500mb charts the 18z were noticably better and if the storm would've went negative tilt in the MS valley, well you do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yes...The interesting thing to me is the NAM has been pretty decent this year and actually had a few semi coups besides a run or 2. IDK I hope is that the models over corrected just like when the gfs shifted north 100 miles with the 3/3 storm before shifting south 300 miles in subsequent run This reminds me somewhat of the 3/3 storm, except I notice nobody on-air tv met is putting a snow map up yet. Smart choice. But this storm is different. The polar vortex would really have to work to expand this far southward and give us a miss. This is going to be one of those storms, we'll either get 6 inches or we'll get nothing at all. The rest of the 18z runs which come out soon are not as important as tonight's oz runs IMO. Sure, the trend is southward, but having all the models coming into a consensus at this far out in the game is baffling me a little. I'd say the best chance of seeing snow is from I-78 southward with the jackpot being somewhere between DC and Philly, probably closer to DC if this southward trend continues. If I were N+W of I-287 I wouldn't get my hopes up. But anything can happen. But the March trend has been to miss us more than hit us. Sure, the January and February trend has been to hit us, but we're in a different pattern during those months. One of these wait and see situations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I went into this run expecting nothing and received a bone, consider this a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A WRF model based on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That wave coming into the NW needs to get lost somewhere over the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lol its going negative at 81 but looks like a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The mid-Atlantic is going to cash in on part two. The kicker wave is more amped up which is buckling the flow and our trough is going negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The mid-Atlantic is going to cash in on part two. The kicker wave is more amped up which is buckling the flow and our trough is going negative tilt. lol massive shift from 12z...gfs is lost right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I went into this run expecting nothing and received a bone, consider this a win. unfortunately a "bone" is a long way from a "boner," ....to shamelessly quote Socrates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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