IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lol its going negative at 81 but looks like a mess Yup, and it's getting sheared out now, don't really buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 These posts irk me so much. The NAM is a perfectly good model if you know how to read it. People that just want to automatically dismiss it haven't been following weather for very long. not at 18 z 60 plus hrs out, anybody will tell u that. its been horrible in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yup, and it's getting sheared out now, don't really buy that. Well on to 0z then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Okay, you officially have my attention again, on to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yup, and it's getting sheared out now, don't really buy that. with all of that energy it gets sheared out? I don't know this is befuddling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 not at 18 z 60 plus hrs out, anybody will tell u that. its been horrible in the long range Let's try to keep this thread on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 with all of that energy it gets sheared out? I don't know this is befuddling Crushed, pushed east, because of the kicker. That stupid, stupid kicker. It needs to go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Okay, you officially have my attention again, on to 00z. you better be doing the 00z PBP tonight or I will be on your case tomorrow yanks, bring your A game tonight. John, I see you in here you better be present tonight as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Crushed, pushed east, because of the kicker. That stupid, stupid kicker. It needs to go away. im going to PM the pacific and respectfully ask for it to stall for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The radical difference from the 12z gfs definitely should get everyone's attention, there's still a lot of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At the surface, this run actually trended a bit south, especially with the heavier amounts in the Mid-Atlantic. DC went from 0.60" to 0.45," and the 0.25" line went from Long Branch at 12z down the shore to LBI at 18z. Interesting that there were better trends at H5, but that's just how the GFS can be sometimes. We'll have to see what happens at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The radical difference from the 12z gfs definitely should get everyone's attention, there's still a lot of uncertainty. hey mr. suppression how are you doing? great improved run at H5 from the 18z NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm not worried as much about the surface. In fact, all that's important is that the GFS finally shifted to a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the qpf totals look nearly identical on the GFS from last run to this run, maybe even a tad LESS than 12z. This was not a step forward. Nothing is really looking "up" at this point whatsoever. I know H5 is different, but considering the terrible solutions almost all of the other models have, and the nam seems to be gradually shifting south converging with the others....I don't see a reason to get excited yet, as nothing has trended for the better. Not over yet, no, but definitely nothing positive Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the qpf totals look nearly identical on the GFS from last run to this run, maybe even a tad LESS than 12z. This was not a step forward. Nothing is really looking "up" at this point whatsoever Sent from my iPhone Yeah because QPF totals are what matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the qpf totals look nearly identical on the GFS from last run to this run, maybe even a tad LESS than 12z. This was not a step forward. Nothing is really looking "up" at this point whatsoever. I know H5 is different, but considering the terrible solutions almost all of the other models have, and the nam seems to be gradually shifting south converging with the others....I don't see a reason to get excited yet, as nothing has trended for the better. Not over yet, no, but definitely nothing positive Sent from my iPhone Maybe at the surface... H5 improved. The GFS now has a different solution. I guess we'll see at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the qpf totals look nearly identical on the GFS from last run to this run, maybe even a tad LESS than 12z. This was not a step forward. Nothing is really looking "up" at this point whatsoever. I know H5 is different, but considering the terrible solutions almost all of the other models have, and the nam seems to be gradually shifting south converging with the others....I don't see a reason to get excited yet, as nothing has trended for the better. Not over yet, no, but definitely nothing positive Sent from my iPhone i agree that the GFS is still a miss for NY, but it is a very different evolution, and worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I've seen this in recent Upton discos and would like anyone who knows what this means to perhaps lay out an explanation. Sensitivity Signal. THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING ALARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEANTRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITYSIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATEDWITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTERINSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNSNOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIROBSERVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If you consider the progressive pattern, that would favor less digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I really, really hate to even post this because it was obviously a very anomalous storm, but anyone else see the similarities here to the NAM? look at how much further north the UL is in eastern canada and the confluence is also farther north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This reminds me somewhat of the 3/3 storm, except I notice nobody on-air tv met is putting a snow map up yet. Smart choice. But this storm is different. The polar vortex would really have to work to expand this far southward and give us a miss. This is going to be one of those storms, we'll either get 6 inches or we'll get nothing at all. The rest of the 18z runs which come out soon are not as important as tonight's oz runs IMO. Sure, the trend is southward, but having all the models coming into a consensus at this far out in the game is baffling me a little. I'd say the best chance of seeing snow is from I-78 southward with the jackpot being somewhere between DC and Philly, probably closer to DC if this southward trend continues. If I were N+W of I-287 I wouldn't get my hopes up. But anything can happen. But the March trend has been to miss us more than hit us. Sure, the January and February trend has been to hit us, but we're in a different pattern during those months. One of these wait and see situations... Nice post - especially the comment on the PV, which Upton called out as being a fair amount weaker than the 3/3 event - and welcome. I was actually quite surprised the NWS-Philly put out a map at 4 pm today, about 54-60 hours before the event (showing a general 4-6" for most of the I-95 corridor and S/E of there) which is similar to what they did before the 3/3 "event." I would've thought they might be more gun shy given the debacle that forecast turned out to be (for them and everyone, really) and given that my recollection is they usually wait until 36-42 hours before the event to issue snow maps. The map is linked, since I don't seem to have the ability to insert a pic in this post (all the buttons are greyed out for some reason). http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Also, when you say "north and west of 287" are you referring to Edison? Somerville? Morristown? White Plains? Sorry, just busting chops a bit - I started a thread on the annoyance of that term, since 287 is not a point, per se, and that term is very unclear (even though most think of it as N/W of the intersection of 287/80, according to Craig Allen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I would like to see if any of the ens bring it up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I've seen this in recent Upton discos and would like anyone who knows what this means to perhaps lay out an explanation. Sensitivity Signal. THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. A sensitivity analysis is typically done with numerical models to gauge the importance of varying the key initial condition dataset variables and the impact of those variations on the model outcome. That's essentially what the ensembles look at. If one averages all the ensemble runs up, one gets the mean of the ensemble, but the range of each variable in time and space (temp, pressure, precip, etc.) seen in the ensemble runs is an indication of how sensitive the model output is to those input perturbations. So, I'll take a shot at explaining what the NWS comments mean. From what I gather, the statement above is saying that the predicted eventual surface low pressure in the ensembles is highly "sensitive" to the placement of the northern jet branch shortwave and much of that variability is reflected in ensemble members whose SLP is north of the SLP of the mean (think that means more members are north of the mean than south, starting with the time in the model run where the northern shortwave reaches the Pac NW coast), indicating that perhaps the track will really end up being north of where the mean shows it to be now. Would be interested in how close I got... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Here comes the 18z GEFS...crossing my fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 RGEM pretty south at 54hrs, no big surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 RGEM pretty south at 54hrs, no big surprise there. Where do you get the RGEM to 54hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Where do you get the RGEM to 54hrs? It goes to 54 hrs only on the 18z and 6z runs. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=qc&mod=gemreg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 FINAL CALL : 12" or greater : 2% chance 10" or greater : 5% chance 8" or greater : 10% chance 6" or greater : 15% chance 4" or greater : 23% chance 2" or greater : 35% chance Under 2" : 10% chance Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A sensitivity analysis is typically done with numerical models to gauge the importance of varying the key initial condition dataset variables and the impact of those variations on the model outcome. That's essentially what the ensembles look at. If one averages all the ensemble runs up, one gets the mean of the ensemble, but the range of each variable in time and space (temp, pressure, precip, etc.) seen in the ensemble runs is an indication of how sensitive the model output is to those input perturbations. So, I'll take a shot at explaining what the NWS comments mean. From what I gather, the statement above is saying that the predicted eventual surface low pressure in the ensembles is highly "sensitive" to the placement of the northern jet branch shortwave and much of that variability is reflected in ensemble members whose SLP is north of the SLP of the mean (think that means more members are north of the mean than south, starting with the time in the model run where the northern shortwave reaches the Pac NW coast), indicating that perhaps the track will really end up being north of where the mean shows it to be now. Would be interested in how close I got... Wow, thanks. So it might be sort of a super analysis of the ensembles, that's my take away. That explains the forecaster discussion from the Upton office and the grid forecast at this point. I'd love some input from Upton on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 FINAL CALL : 12" or greater : 2% chance 10" or greater : 5% chance 8" or greater : 10% chance 6" or greater : 15% chance 4" or greater : 23% chance 2" or greater : 35% chance Under 2" : 10% chance Sent from my iPhone Just say 2-4, 4-6, etc... The way you've written it here accounts for only 45% of the pdf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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