dryslot Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Liked that ECM and GGEM runs last night...over 1" QPF on the EURO over most of NNE down through CNE. Dryslot, congrats man. That EURO run was incredible. Get the yardstick out. Doesn't matter what model, you get hit pretty darn hard. Thanks freak, That Euro run looks like your area would do quite well too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Thanks freak, That Euro run looks like your area would do quite well tooThat's 12+ for all of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 That's 12+ for all of NNE. About as good as you can get, Euro was very generous with the qpf for our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1"+ liquid for all of VT, NH, and most of ME on the ecens mean...it was a little bit cooler than the 12z run which makes a difference for up here and dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 My p/c has me holding to snow through noon on Wednesday before mixing. Not sure when they expect it to 'un-taint'. EC's close up here. Not close enough, though. Hopeuflly a little nudging south plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Lol....6Z gfs coming in warm. Congrats NNE..it's been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Surprised to see southern Berkshire in the watch. I'm encouraged that Albany has the confidence to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1"+ liquid for all of VT, NH, and most of ME on the ecens mean...it was a little bit cooler than the 12z run which makes a difference for up here and dryslot. Yeah, that model has been steadfast... the ECM and its ensembles. I like the H7 low closing off so far north and west... BTV noted it too. Some banding possible well north, so we'll see. To my eye the 6z GFS looks to be a little more amped than 00z out in the Ohio Valley. The 850mb freezing line is further north to start by a little bit. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Snowing in Chicago now on the 6z GFS when it was south of them at 00z... lets get that model to give us a ECM solution, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Lol....6Z gfs coming in warm. Congrats NNE..it's been awhile. Alas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Wow... crushed on the GFS. That's awesome that it folded to the ECM. Holy crap... over 1" of QPF now in line with the Euro... up from like a half inch at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS even mixes up here. That may be the warmest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Only hope for me now is the caveat that sampling is sparse at this time. And we know how little hope that allows Looks like CNE north of the MA border to freak to Dryslut do well. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It is almost an exact carbon copy of 12z aside from the smallest details that don't matter really. This run might be like colder by 5 miles Yes too warm for most of the event outside of the flash freeze at the end and a couple inches of snow for SNE, though northenr SNE is pretty darn close to all snow. We're talking needing like 20-25 miles. I'd go 40 for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS even mixes up here. That may be the warmest run yet. That's a hiccup run I'm sure... that low goes over BOS pretty much which is why it looks so good up here. I can't see it becoming that amped but there's still 48 hours left so who knows. I was just stoked it didn't go south to like the Benchmark or something. Looking at the 00z GEFS, only one member had a solution as far NW as the 6z Op GFS. All the meso-models are still pretty far south though it looks like the NAM might have bumped up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 That's a hiccup run I'm sure... that low goes over BOS pretty much which is why it looks so good up here. I can't see it becoming that amped but there's still 48 hours left so who knows. I was just stoked it didn't go south to like the Benchmark or something. Looking at the 00z GEFS, only one member had a solution as far NW as the 6z Op GFS. All the meso-models are still pretty far south though it looks like the NAM might have bumped up a bit. I'm thinking back to the snow-destroying rainers earlier in the season. IIRC, the expectation was that those had hit their northern most tracks and yet they kept moving north leaving us with bare ground as a reminder of just how far they had trended. Not saying that's the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm thinking back to the snow-destroying rainers earlier in the season. IIRC, the expectation was that those had hit their northern most tracks and yet they kept moving north leaving us with bare ground as a reminder of just how far they had trended. Not saying that's the case here. lol yeah, lots of mixed signals this season. There's a lot of that "seasonal pattern" going around where systems seem to find a way to dump on like the northern Mid-Atlantic and SNE, and that isn't about as much trending north or south, just that its seemed to find a way to snow in that area. The cutters though, I have no idea really how they trended because rain is pretty much rain whether it goes over SYR or BUF or DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 lol yeah, lots of mixed signals this season. There's a lot of that "seasonal pattern" going around where systems seem to find a way to dump on like the northern Mid-Atlantic and SNE, and that isn't about as much trending north or south, just that its seemed to find a way to snow in that area. The cutters though, I have no idea really how they trended because rain is pretty much rain whether it goes over SYR or BUF or DTW. True that rain is rain. But it hurts when 36 hours before the event you thought it was going to be snow. The EC and 06z GFS has apparently made the SNE crowd speechless--this thread has quickly died. Cognrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 lol yeah, lots of mixed signals this season. There's a lot of that "seasonal pattern" going around where systems seem to find a way to dump on like the northern Mid-Atlantic and SNE, and that isn't about as much trending north or south, just that its seemed to find a way to snow in that area. The cutters though, I have no idea really how they trended because rain is pretty much rain whether it goes over SYR or BUF or DTW. Nothing now to stop this from contiuning NW. Once the s trend stops it doesn't come back. With S stream system and no blocking this keeps going NW now. Wire to wire rainer in SNE and probably mixes to at least S VT and NH before flipping back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Nothing now to stop this from contiuning NW. Once the s trend stops it doesn't come back. With S stream system and no blocking this keeps going NW now. Wire to wire rainer in SNE and probably mixes to at least S VT and NH before flipping back to snow Ehh, only one GEFS member from the whole group at 00z looked like the 6z OP does. It may not trend 100 miles south, but it could still tickle tickle for 48 hours. I wouldn't be spiking any footballs over the 6z GFS even though it was a weenie run up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 hows the backend flashfreeze snows looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Nothing now to stop this from contiuning NW. Once the s trend stops it doesn't come back. With S stream system and no blocking this keeps going NW now. Wire to wire rainer in SNE and probably mixes to at least S VT and NH before flipping back to snow but what's wrong with the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 FWIW, Looks like GEFS tracks the low from LI to ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Lol....6Z gfs coming in warm. Congrats NNE..it's been awhile. Lol... you bet me to it Jer. I wanted to see that 06Z GFS after the 00Z ECM OP was nearly the same as it's 12Z 9th run. I don't like being Just South of the pike on this track If it verifies like the 00Z 10 Op Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Big Rainer incoming for sne. Congrats northern new England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 there is no interest for snow lovers s of rt 2 with this one.....hopefully cne and nne dont get messed up but i never trust these moisture laden southern systems with ni blocking and a poorly positioned high. the pv which killed a threat last week says fu sne this week to in reverse lol. ma nature says be happy your 16 day bonanza in feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Good lesson as to why past does not equal future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 That's a lot of QPF for the mean 1.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 May come a tad S again when the S/W is in the area better sampling.. Only hope here in SNE .. Otherwise Congrats CNE /NNE you are due anyway. Ensembles a tad S of OP. But not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Nice to see the 6z GEFS cooler. That's a big hit from here to dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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