CT Rain Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It actually doesn't even get BOS to advisory snow...its a horrific run. Not sure I buy it though. RGEM has been pretty far east this whole storm. Though the 6z run was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like a good band is going to form from this, surprises in that zone it seems, Nam banding site indicated this and radar indicates its west of the Nams products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like a good band is going to form from this, surprises in that zone it seems, Nam banding site indicated this and radar indicates its west of the Nams products The models all had the banding devloping way offshore so the stuff you are seeing is just loosy goosy fronto stuff. This was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like a good band is going to form from this, surprises in that zone it seems, Nam banding site indicated this and radar indicates its west of the Nams productsyeah I think that might be our norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That so called NORLUN feature is basically that piece of energy over cstl NC right now. That pivots up towards LI and srn CT on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Fwiw RAP looks amazing later on for eastern areas including Boston. Hrrr looks solid as well and insane down around PYM to the canal with 4" per hour band progged down there. Since it has nw bias it better look good to orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The models all had the banding devloping way offshore so the stuff you are seeing is just loosy goosy fronto stuff. This was modeled. Yeah i don't think this was a surprise. It might even be a little east of where the 6z nam had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Feeling pretty good about euro/ GFS winning this based on sat and radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is this stuff in W MA related to the main system? Kind of surprised how quickly the intensity picked up here. Flurries to moderate in the course of 30 minutes. Radar looks good over E NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The low is a little west of the NAM's 06 position for this approximate time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Do they still teach those skills? lol, that's how things were done when I first got in the business. We aren't taught it in the NWS, just use the skills left over from school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well this could be a huge cmc coup or another strike to the dregs. RGEM was good last storm but they are an outlier (through 6z) this time. Are they sniffing it right or sniffing glue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The low is a little west of the NAM's 06 position for this approximate time range Certainly not East. looks to be abour 998 mb just west of Elizabeth City, NC at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 12z Ukie is a huge hit again for eastern areas like 00z...almost identical to 00z. If anything, maybe slightly better. The only QPF panel we can see...valid through 00z tonight 850mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well this could be a huge cmc coup or another strike to the dregs. RGEM was good last storm but they are an outlier (through 6z) this time. Are they sniffing it right or sniffing glue?Just because it's the only guidance available doesn't make it any more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just because it's the only guidance available doesn't make it any more accurate. Really? Damn it's good you're here to tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's a great look from the good uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Really? Damn it's good you're here to tell me. It was in response to your post, but more directed at the toaster bath comments about one run of the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Uncle and euro on one side and cmc on another. Kind of like the Seahawks playing the Giants this year. But on any Sunday..... I'm pretty confident of a major storm imby and a huge one for messenger who will be near the jack IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Uncle came in even stronger vs 0z. 7pm tonight image and 6 hour qpf. Obviously the next 6 hours are huge and we can't see that but it certainly can be inferred from this one. image.jpg This is really insanity. IMO the HRRR stunk and now the RGEM. (I think the HRRR was keeping the worst offshore like the RGEM and it's snowfall products are anemic) Yet there are no discernible clues yet to what is going on. OceanSTWx posted that great link indicating the PWATs were really low off the coast to our south which gives credence to a real struggle to develop a unified shield to the west of the main band. I'm really torn. For some reason my page wasn't updating, the later HRRR's are fine and in line with all the heavier solutions. Was just coming off my ipad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It was in response to your post, but more directed at the toaster bath comments about one run of the rgem. Yeah I'm just having fun. I mean up until a fe minutes ago cmc was all we had so it was suddenly anointed. Now uk comes in and everyone quickly forgets. But RGEM can be useful. We'll see if it is sniffing something no one else saw this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Ukie pretty much agrees with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nowcast but man just look at real time stuff, impressive, UKIE is a hit, big daddy will tell us if what we are seeing is believin. crude real time map, of course depending on how tight the bands consolidate but based on real time we are looking at something special it appears for ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is really insanity. IMO the HRRR stunk and now the RGEM. (I think the HRRR was keeping the worst offshore like the RGEM and it's snowfall products are anemic) Yet there are no discernible clues yet to what is going on. OceanSTWx posted that great link indicating the PWATs were really low off the coast to our south which gives credence to a real struggle to develop a unified shield to the west of the main band. I'm really torn. Heh, filling in over the MA just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 last nights Euro, love this website by the way http://www.weather.us/animatedOK/watch.html It was even better when they had the 10 day euro on their 1500 cities map. They went down to 4 days and said it wasn't going back to 10 when I emailed them. Those animated maps are cool though. Bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah I'm just having fun. I mean up until a fe minutes ago cmc was all we had so it was suddenly anointed. Now uk comes in and everyone quickly forgets. But RGEM can be useful. We'll see if it is sniffing something no one else saw this time.I agree, but it is typically used to guage consensus, not as a verbatim solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm liking the way the radar is filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is really insanity. IMO the HRRR stunk and now the RGEM. (I think the HRRR was keeping the worst offshore like the RGEM and it's snowfall products are anemic) Yet there are no discernible clues yet to what is going on. OceanSTWx posted that great link indicating the PWATs were really low off the coast to our south which gives credence to a real struggle to develop a unified shield to the west of the main band. I'm really torn. For some reason my page wasn't updating, the later HRRR's are fine and in line with all the heavier solutions. Was just coming off my ipad. Confirms what Jason up in AK posted yesterday (with the link to satellite loop of PWAT across the Atlantic). Last storm really scoured it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Uncle and euro on one side and cmc on another. Kind of like the Seahawks playing the Giants this year. But on any Sunday..... I'm pretty confident of a major storm imby and a huge one for messenger who will be near the jack IMHO. Having the two powerhouse models (GFS/Euro) showing a better solution than the others is always encouraging. If we think about it in reverse, how would we all feel if the dregs had a good hit but the powerhouses said no? We'd all probaly be pretty pessimistic. But like you said, every dog (or dreg) has its day. The RGEM is actually not a bad model, which is why it somewhat bothered me of its solution...but seeing the 12z Ukie come out is a bit reassuring that new 12z data wasn't the reason for the RGEM's ugly depiction. the convection down near HSE was def closer to the GFS than the 06z NAM which was also somewhat encouraging....but that is just one variable. Sfc low is a bit west too and the water vapor loops looks like there is a pretty good surge northward....however, we really need to see what it looks like 6 hours from now...and none of us can see the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 CMC not a good look for many. That H7 warm front and strongest frontogenetical forcing remains mostly offshore, except for the Cape. It's not surprising it shows such a sharp cutoff to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.