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V Day II obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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I'm really surprised you're so bearish tonight. This is going to be wild..and alot of WTF's come tomorrow morning

 

 

It is going to fill in and be fun to track...but east of the Berks and Litchfield county its going to be a lot of crapola like dippin' dots graupel, pellets, ZR, and plain rain during the heaviest precip we get this evening. There's a good chance for thunder too...so yes, I'm on board for "wild" weather. I'm just NOT on board for 4-7" of snow like you are.

 

By the time we flip back to straight snow, its going to be mostly out of here...perhaps an inch or two if lucky.

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It is going to fill in and be fun to track...but east of the Berks and Litchfield county its going to be a lot of crapola like dippin; dots graupel, pellets, ZR, and plain rain during the heaviest precip we get this evening. There's a good chance ofr thunder too...so yes, I'm on board for "wild" weather. I'm just NOT on board for 4-7" of snow like you are.

 

By the time we flip back to straight snow, its going to be mostly out of here...perhaps an inch or two if lucky.

Steve Ginx 12/9/05 surprise redux :lol:

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It is going to fill in and be fun to track...but east of the Berks and Litchfield county its going to be a lot of crapola like dippin' dots graupel, pellets, ZR, and plain rain during the heaviest precip we get this evening. There's a good chance for thunder too...so yes, I'm on board for "wild" weather. I'm just NOT on board for 4-7" of snow like you are.

 

By the time we flip back to straight snow, its going to be mostly out of here...perhaps an inch or two if lucky.

I think 2-4 here and 3-5 or 6 up by you..I don't see why that isn't reasonable

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I think 2-4 here and 3-5 or 6 up by you..I don't see why that isn't reasonable

 

 

Well if you are backpedaling to 2-4"...its not quite as hard to believe...I'd still take the low end though..more like 1-2".

 

 

It is because the mid-level 7H low tracks basically up the CT River or even slightly west...that's why I'm not forecasting 4-6" tonight. If it had been about 100 miles southeast, I'd be pretty gung ho.

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Well if you are backpedaling to 2-4"...its not quite as hard to believe...I'd still take the low end though..more like 1-2".

 

 

It is because the mid-level 7H low tracks basically up the CT River or even slightly west...that's why I'm not forecasting 4-6" tonight. If it had been about 100 miles southeast, I'd be pretty gung ho.

That weenie map from PF is taking into account snow that already fell pre ULL

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Well if you are backpedaling to 2-4"...its not quite as hard to believe...I'd still take the low end though..more like 1-2".

 

 

It is because the mid-level 7H low tracks basically up the CT River or even slightly west...that's why I'm not forecasting 4-6" tonight. If it had been about 100 miles southeast, I'd be pretty gung ho.

 

Yup... exactly. For far western CT into the Berks and E NY it's  adifferent story. 

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Here is a nice graphic. Notice the warmer air east of the yellow solid line which is the 850-700 critical thickness. In actually the snow line is east of this, but now you entrained drier air noted by the lack of shading. The drier air actually is aiding in tstms or upright convection here.

 

post-33-0-25058700-1392331345_thumb.gif

 

post-33-0-11283800-1392331356_thumb.gif

 

 

 

These can have narrow mesoscale bands so it would not surprise me if someone further east lucked out...but the overall scenario is tough east of the CT river and into ORH. The 1-2 seems realistic for you Kev. Maybe you'll luck out!

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Well if you are backpedaling to 2-4"...its not quite as hard to believe...I'd still take the low end though..more like 1-2".

It is because the mid-level 7H low tracks basically up the CT River or even slightly west...that's why I'm not forecasting 4-6" tonight. If it had been about 100 miles southeast, I'd be pretty gung ho.

Ok thanks. And for the record I never called for 4-7 tonight. Anyway a few more fun days left before spring break
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Roads are really bad. Went down to DD and it was closed..Very icy with the zr falling

 

No zr here.  Still really crappy flakes.  Not that it matters given the rate.

 

 

Anyone in the HFD area just see a flash and here a boom....it didn't really sound like thunder so thought I'd check if anyone else saw this....

 

Transformer?

 

25.0/24 and breezy in Shelburne

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nasty out there.  Temp has risen to 29.  We have winds gusting to perhaps 30mph occasionally, and the air is filled with freezing drizzle and needles -- very blue tinted evening. Classic!   


 


I was wrong on my eyeball estimate earlier.  I have 7" in 4 different measures, right on the button.  ...so far


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