GaWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Overnight Euro Ensemble keeps the back to back Canadian Highs, and actually has a Miller A in between the 2 that runs from central / northern FL, off Hatteras to off Boston, with 850mb staying below 0 deg throughout from Raleigh to Charlotte to far north GA. Previous Euro Ensemble had it too. Believe what you want to believe, lol. At any rate, looks like a below to well below normal temperature period late next weekend into the following week Fwiw: Both the 6Z GFS ensemble mean and the 0Z Euro ensemble mean suggest a heightened chance for a Miller A and at least a close call to a major SE winter storm for some well inland areas for 3/24-5 (obviously the further north NC would have the best shot as is normal). Climowise, even down in ATL, it isn't as impossible as it may seem when one considers that there was a major winter storm around this time in both 1971 (3/25 major ZR in ATL due to very nice CAD; this was a major SN in far NE GA, upstate, and into NC, mainly 3/26 in RDU along with some IP/ZR) and in 1983 (3/24..this was an incredible 7.9" snow in ATL, the heaviest since 1940, and a heavy snow for many in the well inland SE). 1. Wx maps for 3/25-26/1971: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1971/19710322-19710328.djvu Data: - AHN (major ZR): http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-40AD89C2-E821-49EB-AA7D-EE5F7E0A4DB9.pdf - GSP(6.6" SN/IP and some ZR afterward): http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-6C067607-EEB2-4EFE-949F-1B5871F6E975.pdf - RDU (5.3" SN/IP and some ZR): http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-955398EC-BBDE-41BD-8E76-BDEC1BF3AC10.pdf ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. Wx maps for 3/24/1983: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1983/19830321-19830327.djvu Data: - ATL (7.9" SN): http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-11C7E532-1810-48DB-BBB5-81A04B26ACF7.pdf - GSP: (9.3" SN with lowest of 34!!): http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-137BA8D9-6BF8-4A4B-9C48-4B13874B8876.pdf - RDU: (7.3" SN): http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-B267D1AB-876E-4A89-A748-5187AC20F278.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Good stuff GA. There were actually several late March snow events in the early 70's...a weird stretch where it happened several years on 3/25 (some of these go into 3/26) Charlotte 3/25/71 - 3.5 3/25/72 - 3.7 3/25/74 - 1.4 Greensboro 3/25/71 - 3.3 3/25/72 - 3.1 3/21/73 - 1.5 3/25/74 - 4.5 Raleigh 3/25/71 - 5.3 3/25/72 - 2.6 3/21/73 - 0.4 3/25/74 - 2.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Good stuff GA. There were actually several late March snow events in the early 70's...a weird stretch where it happened several years on 3/25 (some of these go into 3/26) Charlotte 3/25/71 - 3.5 3/25/72 - 3.7 3/25/74 - 1.4 Greensboro 3/25/71 - 3.3 3/25/72 - 3.1 3/21/73 - 1.5 3/25/74 - 4.5 Raleigh 3/25/71 - 5.3 3/25/72 - 2.6 3/21/73 - 0.4 3/25/74 - 2.9 I noticed the top analogue on your superensemble list. That was a decent hit for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Came in here expecting a warm-type of discussion. I was disappointed and left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 How's the 12 z GFS for the 3/25 event ? I'm all in! This is almost like March 1960 for the N piedmont atleast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 WxSouth Working on the extended outlook for monthly subscribers. Unthinkable to even have to be doing this, at this late stage. A 1048 mb Arctic High on the European, a Piece of the Polar Vortex, Block in Alaska on all models again...all this means cold air dumps right back into the central and eastern US, including atleast the Upper South/Mid South, coming in two different phases. One next weekend, then a bigger blast later next week, with another Southern Storm taking shape. Who will get the snow, ice or rain out of that one? Too early to say. Check out the video at www.wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro Ensemble has the Miller A again for next Mon night / Tues. Sfc low from N FL, to just off Hatteras, to just off Cape Cod. 850mb 0 deg during the heart of it runs from far N GA to New Bern, NC. It has 850mb temps below normal next week from Sun morning to Fri night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I can tell from the lack of posting in here that people either don't believe anything is going to happen or they are just ready for winter to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro Ensemble has the Miller A again for next Mon night / Tues. Sfc low from N FL, to just off Hatteras, to just off Cape Cod. 850mb 0 deg during the heart of it runs from far N GA to New Bern, NC. It has 850mb temps below normal next week from Sun morning to Fri night Yeah, it looked solid. Nice coastal signature (runs it all the way to Newfoundland). 850s are great for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Details? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 http://www.ncpiedmontweather.com/2014/03/17/more-chances-for-snowice-in-marchapril/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Details? TW Ens Mean high temp for Greensboro for Mon/Tues/Wed is 41/39/39. Looks like precip amounts range from 0.2-0.6 across the state Mon into Tues...probably decent amounts for this kind of lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro Ensemble has the Miller A again for next Mon night / Tues. Sfc low from N FL, to just off Hatteras, to just off Cape Cod. 850mb 0 deg during the heart of it runs from far N GA to New Bern, NC. It has 850mb temps below normal next week from Sun morning to Fri night Grit, Are you sure that is the 12Z Euro Ens and not an old run like the 0Z? I'm asking because my vendor's 12Z hasn't started and they were told by ECMWF that the problem is at the ECMWF end and that nobody should have received it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Grit, Are you sure that is the 12Z Euro Ens and not an old run like the 0Z? I'm asking because my vendor's 12Z hasn't started and they were told by ECMWF that the problem is at the ECMWF end and that nobody should have received it yet. GA - it wouldn't surprise me if had screwed that up, but WxBell has indeed updated with the 3/17 12z Euro Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GA - it wouldn't surprise me if had screwed that up, but WxBell has indeed updated with the 3/17 12z Euro Ens Hmm. Interesting. My vendor's 12Z Euro Ens just started a few minutes ago and is at hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Came in here expecting a warm-type of discussion. I was disappointed and left. superstormsuperstormsuperstormstormofthecenturyomgwinterforever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Unbelievable looking at next week on the models. The last week of March, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The arrival of the cold front and a formation of a low on most ensembles and operational runs around 3/25-3/26 definitely doesn't hurt. Finding it hard to believe it will be any different than what we're experiencing right now, though. Just can't get the cold to work out this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Fwiw, the 6Z GFS has a historic, huge snowstorm for late 3/24-3/25 for much of N GA and the Carolinas! Keep in mind that GFS clowns aren't so out of line like Euro clowns (which produce snowfall when 850's are above 0C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Thanks Gawx. skimmed through MA forum and it seems Euro op or ens had a super storm look. What's the old weather channel show "It could happen tomorrow." or something like that anyway a big snow the last week of March would be historic. Seen different regions of NC get buried with these late season storms from time to time. see storm getting to sub 960 mb on its way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Fwiw, the 6Z GFS has a historic, huge snowstorm for late 3/24-3/25 for much of N GA and the Carolinas! Keep in mind that GFS clowns aren't so out of line like Euro clowns (which produce snowfall when 850's are above 0C).Yeah, that looks fairly awesome all the way around. PGV jackpots? The 0z has none of it...neither does the Euro, although the Euro does have some great looking high pressure across the northern tier at the end of its run.Edit: CMC supports! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Next week looks legit. Bigger question will be if there is moisture around. Models seem to be hit and miss for the SE so far with it. Last night's CMC looked good for the Carolinas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Thanks Gawx. skimmed through MA forum and it seems Euro op or ens had a super storm look. What's the old weather channel show "It could happen tomorrow." or something like that anyway a big snow the last week of March would be historic. Seen different regions of NC get buried with these late season storms from time to time. see storm getting to sub 960 mb on its way out to sea. It must be something about the transition from one season to the next that can produce big storms. Sometimes it is with severe weather and tornadoes, and sometimes winter storms. When you get to the transition times like now it seems either one can happen, from one extreme to another. Looks like the GFS and Canadien are on board, but the Euro isn't showing it. Just have to see if the Euro comes around, too, or if the others fade away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Next week looks legit. Bigger question will be if there is moisture around. Models seem to be hit and miss for the SE so far with it. Last night's CMC looked good for the Carolinas as well. If the cold air is close to what the GFS is showing the below snow map would be possible. Totally crazy but possible. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It must be something about the transition from one season to the next that can produce big storms. Sometimes it is with severe weather and tornadoes, and sometimes winter storms. When you get to the transition times like now it seems either one can happen, from one extreme to another. Looks like the GFS and Canadien are on board, but the Euro isn't showing it. Just have to see if the Euro comes around, too, or if the others fade away. 0z Euro ENS were very much showing a hit, more/bigger members than 12z yesterday. Not buying it though, probably more 33F and rain with another MA crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It must be something about the transition from one season to the next that can produce big storms. Sometimes it is with severe weather and tornadoes, and sometimes winter storms. When you get to the transition times like now it seems either one can happen, from one extreme to another. Looks like the GFS and Canadien are on board, but the Euro isn't showing it. Just have to see if the Euro comes around, too, or if the others fade away. Thanks Greg Fischel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 0z Euro ENS were very much showing a hit, more/bigger members than 12z yesterday. Not buying it though, probably more 33F and rain with another MA crush job. Isn't it crazy how it can get right down to 33 sometimes but not go any lower when we have precip around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Thanks Greg Fischel. I am much better looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 From news 14 Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/445899543335288832 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.