gritsnc Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 From news 14 Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/445899543335288832 That's showing everything in rain though. Unless I'm reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It is showing the precipitation fields without distinguishing precipitation types. Trust me, a lot of that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The big 3 global ensembles a week from today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro Ensemble was a bit more suppressed this run, but colder. 850 0 deg runs from Cape Fear, NC (great name) to Atlanta area during the heart of the 'storm'. Raleigh had ensemble mean 2.7 inches of snow on wxbell snow algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 7 of the 12 06z GFS Ensemble members on ewall have a winter storm in parts of the SE around next Tues...maybe it's just a blip though considering how good the 06z op run looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Looks like 3 or 4 members had a winter storm on the 00z run (GFS Ens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Don't think the 12z is going to cut it. Compared to 6z at 5h not as much southern energy and the northern energy is diving down south enough to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 @165 it's close but looks just off shore. Light snow along I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Snippets from WPC Discussion... WELL UPSTREAM A NERN PAC SYSTEM WILL HEAD INTO SWRN CANADA ANDTHEN SUPPORT A WEAK WAVE EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS/MS VLY BYSUN-MON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND ENERGY DIGGING SWDFROM CANADA IS THEN EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER SFC DEVELOPMENTOVER THE ERN STATES AND/OR WRN ATLC BY NEXT TUE. THE MOST NOTABLETREND IN 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE IS AN EARLIER REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSUREOFF THE SERN COAST AS OF 12Z TUETELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO D+8 NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES CNTRD OVERNEW ENGLAND/SERN CANADA SUPPORT A VERY COLD PERIOD OVER THE ERNSTATES. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RANKING CORRELATIONS FROMCOMPOSITE ANALOGS FOR SOME D+8 MEANS INCLUDE MULTIPLE YEARSNOTABLE FOR MARCH COLD EVENTS/PERIODS IN THE EAST INCL THE YEARSOF 1993/1984/1974/1960.UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING INTO SWRNCANADA WILL BRUSH THE VERY NRN PARTS OF THE WEST WITH LGT PRECIPEARLY AND THEN ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND E-SE WITH TIME. TIMING/INTENSITY/COVERAGE/TYPE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTH AND EASTDURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON SOME SMALLERSCALE DETAILS ALOFT WHICH ARE TYPICALLY NOT WELL RESOLVED 6-7 DAYSOUT IN TIME. AT THE VERY LEAST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UNUSUALLY FARSWD/SEWD EXTENT OF SOME WINTRY PCPN FOR LATE MARCH... GIVEN COLDSECTOR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10-25 F BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'd like to see the op euro pick up on this. Pretty remarkable March so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 ILM seeing measurable snowfall is rare enough, but a measurable SPRING snowfall would be just crazy. It would not unprecedented in Raleigh, though; according to NWS they have seen 2 in. snow depth as late as April 20. But a late March snowfall would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 This storm reminds me of the Jan 28 storm where all the global ensembles picked up on the storm 7 days out. It will be interesting to see what solutions the euro and other models spits out the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro looks like it's going to be extremely close. Low in the gulf with cold air coming down at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 @132 Euro goes *POOF* with the low. In fact it looks funny on the maps. It spins off a new weaker low off of Texas but looks like the low is sent back west. 5h doesn't look good at all which explains that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro looks like it's going to be extremely close. Low in the gulf with cold air coming down at 126. That sounds great but. The low goes poof. Crazy we are even that close for march 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 LP off SC coast at hr 180 but no cold air. Edit: Looks better at hr 186...Parts of NC getting some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Yep 180-192 is interesting but just no real cold air at the SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro Ens not as suppressed this run, and looks a lot like the Op. Sfc low tracks from N FL to off Hatteras. 850 0 deg at warmest point runs from far N GA to Charlotte to Raleigh. Sfc high is off the NE coast though, like the Op. Probably need strong damming high to hold over NE and/or super dynamic system to get it done from a temp standpoint in late March outside of upper elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z GFS was actually a good run; with the potential system being 7 days out it still has the cold air but keeps the storm too far south/east. This is perfect for a day 7storm(..in late March). Also, just the cold is something to talk about. The 12z even has an impressive cold shot at day 15(fantasy land). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=372&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140318+12+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 RAH long term discussion: <last part> COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THEREGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE INTO THE REGION ONMONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHSONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE LONG TERMPERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGSOUTHERN JET MAY FORM IN THE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICOMONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THISSYSTEM MAY SPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AS ASTRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ANDMID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. NWP GUIDANCE PROVIDES VARYING SOLUTIONS FORTHIS EVENT BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINTWARRANTS AT LEAST A SMALL POP. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILLBE COLD AND PTYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE PATTERN BUT WILL KEEPTEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO INCLUDE RAIN AT THIS TIME. -BLAES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The 18z GFS is back to being suppressed again. SE NC/NE SC get some precip with cold enough 850s, but surface temperatures might be a little warm. It's pretty neat that we're tracking sort of legit potential events in late March. I feel like it's more likely to fail than work out, but it's certainly a possibility. It would appear that the main threat is either rain or snow. I've had enough sleet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Actually, I'm very fond of sleet. Hangs around forever. Believe it or not, I still have a few remains of the February 12 sleetfest in my front flower bed. I didn't even shovel it there. It's on the north side o the house, and the sleet would bounce off my steep roof and land on the pine needles behind some azaleas. Probably had about 18" of sleet originally with a nice refresher with the big ice storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 18z GFS is back to being suppressed again. SE NC/NE SC get some precip with cold enough 850s, but surface temperatures might be a little warm. It's pretty neat that we're tracking sort of legit potential events in late March. I feel like it's more likely to fail than work out, but it's certainly a possibility. It would appear that the main threat is either rain or snow. I've had enough sleet this year. I'd certainly rather have sleet than rain. Then again, I LOVE sleet! No, my name is not Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Sleet is not a self limiting process!!! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'd certainly rather have sleet than rain. Then again, I LOVE sleet! No, my name is not Tony. Oh, I'll take sleet over rain, certainly! Sleet does have long staying power, so that is nice. I've still got most of it hanging around from yesterday's event in the shaded areas and 3/6 hung around for quite awhile in the shady areas (as did the 2/12 storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I take any and all sleet, any time, all the time, year round. Right now I'm just trying to coax out some more cold weather. Winter always ends too soon, and always abruptly, from pleasure to pain. I'll get cold around the 26th, then I'm guessing the first week or so of April, so all the nasty buds and flowers can learn to be patient Some April sleet would be amazingly amazing!! I am named Tony, and I want my sleet in feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Larry Cosgrove added 2 new photos. It is way too early to be posting snowfall accumulation maps concerning the storm for next week. But there is enough agreement from the numerical models and ensemble members to say that an important snow event is likely over the Interstate 95 corridor above Fayetteville NC (I'm not kidding), and that the word "heavy" could be mentioned as a possibility. This goes along severe cold over most of the eastern half of the U.S. Interestingly ALL of the schemes project a nice, quick warm-up east of the Great Plains beginning March 28. But you need to be watching the March 23 - 27 threat as it involves a large chunk of real estate and will be a disruption to energy, home, and travel concerns IF it verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yep! Next week is going to be an interesting week with more trees budding out, flowers opening and a possible snowstorm. It could create some incredible photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 00z GFS continues the theme of suppression. Some coastal areas of NC and maybe SC are cold enough in the mid-levels, though surface temperatures might be problematic out there. Dare I say we have this right where we want it on the GFS at this point? Maybe I'm just rationalizing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 00z GFS continues the theme of suppression. Some coastal areas of NC and maybe SC are cold enough in the mid-levels, though surface temperatures might be problematic out there. Dare I say we have this right where we want it on the GFS at this point? Maybe I'm just rationalizing... GFS looks to be in a good spot to me as well... If the Euro has the storm it shouldn't be nearly as far south as the GFS. Even the chance of saying game on at this point in winter is like playing football in February, it's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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