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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion III

Marion_NC_WX

By Marion_NC_WX,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Let me know how it goes! I'll be up waiting for the good news...

 

1) Per 0Z King: Brick 2/25 storm cancel

 

2) Massive Arctic plunge coming into northern Plains/upper Midwest at 168. Will this set us up for a nice CAD later? Stay tuned.

 

3) ???

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Interesting storm setup at the end of the 00z Euro.  It would be interesting to see where that one went past D10.

 

Pretty cold for a lot of us at the end of the run... lows in the mid-20s... highs in the 40s... Not frigid, but this is the end of February we're talking about.

 

EDIT: The hr 240 panel isn't showing up for some reason, but the free maps look downright juicy for NC, at least.  The track is probably too far north for almost everyone else (except upstate SC, maybe).  Big HP in the north to give us some cold air, too...

 

Too bad it's D10!

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Is the CAD set up showing as a possibility, if you extrapolate?

 

Mack, you is getting snow (I think) on 2/28 (last map). No real strong wedge showing, but lots of opportunity here. Give me a stupid cold airmass to the north like this one near 3/1 and I'm a happy camper regarding possibilities underneath. :):) :)

 

Edit: Verbatim, I'd love to see that storm get into the Gulf and be a Miller A. :)

 

Edit 2: -25 in N MN.

 

Edit 3: record shattering low of -10 at O'Hare on 2/28! Current record low is 0!

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cwick20

cwick20

Posted
Posted

There are some valid reasons why we constantly get “minima’ed.”  

 

1.  We are in the worst spot for the lee-side warm bubble during northwest flow Cold air advection regimes. By this I mean, we are the last place to scour out a warm boundary layer in a rain to snow situation.  Thus, we can still be getting rain while locations to our east are actually turning to snow before us, even though the cold air is coming from the northwest. (See March 2009 for an excellent example.)

 

2.  Downslope drying is maximized in this area if precipitation is coming from the WNW or NW.  (See every clipper that has ever produced snow east of the mountains for an example.)

 

3.  In certain Miller B setups, we are located in an area where sometimes the energy jumps from a Gulf low pressure to an Atlantic low pressure and we wind up in a qpf minima because of this.  (See Feb 2004 for an excellent example.)

 

4.  Our boundary layer temperatures are often times a degree or two warmer than surrounding locations.  I don’t think this has anything to do with the lakes, but it may have to do with the relatively lower elevation allowing the warm air to somehow settle into the upper Savannah River valley. (I think sometimes that lowlevel downslope warming plays into this as well.)

 

 

 

All that being said, none of those factors were the reason we got screwed in the last winter storm.  It was purely bad luck.  We got fringed by the initial baroclinic leaf Wednesday morning, while areas just to our south got plastered.  Then the warm nose switched us over to sleet before the next round of precip arrived.  Finally, we missed out on the backside snow bands Thursday morning while other area’s received their lion’s share of snow from that feature.

Oconee Nuclear Station cannot be discounted as a weather influence for eastern Oconee and western Pickens counties. I've worked there for over 5 years and have seen its impacts first hand. I live 8.5 miles from the plant (probably 6 as the crow flies). It is always a minimum of 5 degrees cooler at my house than it is at the plant. Hot water is discharged into Lake Keowee and the turbine building rarely, if ever, drops below 80 degrees and can be much hotter. That air is vented directly outside. The effects of this can be seen almost every morning as the local buzzards start their flight over the plant catching the updrafts. Once they reach their height they soar away. We have been dismissed from the plant because of snow with only car tops and certain grassy areas showing any accumulation. Before I could even make it half-way home ( a less than 9 mile trip) everything would be covered including the road. I don't think this is the sole reason we have missed out while others very close by haven't but it definitely aids our ever present warm pocket.

 

The same thing happens in the summer. We have litereally stood outside and watch a thunderstorm approach the plant. As it gets close it will split and go north and south of the plant. Once it gets past the plant you can watch it work back into one storm...usually bigger than it was as it approached the plant. Our running joke is Moses stands on top of the buildings and parts the waters. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

What about the potential for severe wx this week in the SE, their is no thread about this right on our doorstep?

Any opinions about Brick changing his 2/25-27 winter storm thread to the severe wx thread with earlier dates? Brick, any chance you'd be interested since the models are currently saying "winter storm cancel"

for 2/25-7?

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Tony Sisk

Tony Sisk

Posted
Posted

There are some valid reasons why we constantly get “minima’ed.”  

 

1.  We are in the worst spot for the lee-side warm bubble during northwest flow Cold air advection regimes. By this I mean, we are the last place to scour out a warm boundary layer in a rain to snow situation.  Thus, we can still be getting rain while locations to our east are actually turning to snow before us, even though the cold air is coming from the northwest. (See March 2009 for an excellent example.)

 

2.  Downslope drying is maximized in this area if precipitation is coming from the WNW or NW.  (See every clipper that has ever produced snow east of the mountains for an example.)

 

3.  In certain Miller B setups, we are located in an area where sometimes the energy jumps from a Gulf low pressure to an Atlantic low pressure and we wind up in a qpf minima because of this.  (See Feb 2004 for an excellent example.)

 

4.  Our boundary layer temperatures are often times a degree or two warmer than surrounding locations.  I don’t think this has anything to do with the lakes, but it may have to do with the relatively lower elevation allowing the warm air to somehow settle into the upper Savannah River valley. (I think sometimes that lowlevel downslope warming plays into this as well.)

 

 

 

All that being said, none of those factors were the reason we got screwed in the last winter storm.  It was purely bad luck.  We got fringed by the initial baroclinic leaf Wednesday morning, while areas just to our south got plastered.  Then the warm nose switched us over to sleet before the next round of precip arrived.  Finally, we missed out on the backside snow bands Thursday morning while other area’s received their lion’s share of snow from that feature.

 

This is an outstanding post. I have been saying for years that the mountains have a greater impact on the NW Upstate than anyone else's weather. You give a tremendous scientific analysis of this great mystery.

Just as barrier islands are given to the coastline as a buffer for bad weather. The mountians are our buffer. And our location, being surrounded to our west and north...provides protection. (both good and bad)

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drfranklin

drfranklin

Posted
Posted

There are some valid reasons why we constantly get “minima’ed.”  

 

1.  We are in the worst spot for the lee-side warm bubble during northwest flow Cold air advection regimes. By this I mean, we are the last place to scour out a warm boundary layer in a rain to snow situation.  Thus, we can still be getting rain while locations to our east are actually turning to snow before us, even though the cold air is coming from the northwest. (See March 2009 for an excellent example.)

 

2.  Downslope drying is maximized in this area if precipitation is coming from the WNW or NW.  (See every clipper that has ever produced snow east of the mountains for an example.)

 

3.  In certain Miller B setups, we are located in an area where sometimes the energy jumps from a Gulf low pressure to an Atlantic low pressure and we wind up in a qpf minima because of this.  (See Feb 2004 for an excellent example.)

 

4.  Our boundary layer temperatures are often times a degree or two warmer than surrounding locations.  I don’t think this has anything to do with the lakes, but it may have to do with the relatively lower elevation allowing the warm air to somehow settle into the upper Savannah River valley. (I think sometimes that lowlevel downslope warming plays into this as well.)

 

 

 

All that being said, none of those factors were the reason we got screwed in the last winter storm.  It was purely bad luck.  We got fringed by the initial baroclinic leaf Wednesday morning, while areas just to our south got plastered.  Then the warm nose switched us over to sleet before the next round of precip arrived.  Finally, we missed out on the backside snow bands Thursday morning while other area’s received their lion’s share of snow from that feature.

Great post!

 

When I was searching for a home near Lake Keowee (early 2000's), my real estate agent (long time Oconee County resident), informed me that the prior Native Americans (in Oconee County) found it to be a "special" place in that it offered "protection" from severe winter events. I asked him what the "protection" was and he answered: "the mountains just to the north". I recall the fantastic views of the SC/NC mountains just outside of my subdivision (esp on clear days) - very rarely they were snowcapped - can't see anything like that in Greenville.

 

As many are unaware, Seneca, SC is just 45 min to an hour drive NNW to Highlands, NC (elevation 4,100 feet) - the rise in elevation is dramatic in northern Oconee County.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I would not write off the 2/25 - 2/27 period just yet.  There's still enough variablility in the pattern to get something going.  The rest of the extended looks fairly chilly, with cold either entrenched in the area or nearby.  Canada looks to stay quite cold.  It looked for a couple of days like the MJO was going to head into Phase 8, which is favorable for a cold and potentially stormy pattern.  Today, it does not look like it will make it.

 

One thing has become fairly certain this year....we are not going to get any sort of west-based -NAO to lock in this winter.  The mirage shows up from time to time in fantasy land, but it's not going to happen.  The Pacific will continue to drive the pattern.  A lot of big arctic highs are going to drop in down the road, so hopefully, with a little undercutting out west, we can get a well-timed phase to hook us up with a good storm before we're done for the year.

 

Oh, and it did thunder this morning -- a bunch.  It looks to do so again on Friday.  We ought to get some snow next week.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

I would not write off the 2/25 - 2/27 period just yet.  There's still enough variablility in the pattern to get something going.  The rest of the extended looks fairly chilly, with cold either entrenched in the area or nearby.  Canada looks to stay quite cold.  It looked for a couple of days like the MJO was going to head into Phase 8, which is favorable for a cold and potentially stormy pattern.  Today, it does not look like it will make it.

 

One thing has become fairly certain this year....we are not going to get any sort of west-based -NAO to lock in this winter.  The mirage shows up from time to time in fantasy land, but it's not going to happen.  The Pacific will continue to drive the pattern.  A lot of big arctic highs are going to drop in down the road, so hopefully, with a little undercutting out west, we can get a well-timed phase to hook us up with a good storm before we're done for the year.

 

Oh, and it did thunder this morning -- a bunch.  It looks to do so again on Friday.  We ought to get some snow next week.

same 25-28 is still possible,  if something can pop up in 10 days on the Euro it can certainly pop up 3 4 or even 5 days out, so here's to still hoping something pops on the Euro.  looks like the cold will be around at least close enough if we can crank up a storm it can reach and grab some cold air to create a nice snowstorm.  :snowing:  

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile:

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   SWD TO N FL...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH
   VALLEY AREA SHIFTS NNEWD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
   DIGGING SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD LONG-WAVE
   TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP/OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE
   LK SUPERIOR VICINITY WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS ONTARIO WITH TIME...WHILE
   THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM THE E COAST STATES INTO THE WRN
   ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY FOCUS A LINE OF
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE
   FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

   ...ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO N FL...
   WITH THE RAPIDLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND
   ALREADY WELL E OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THE START OF THE
   PERIOD...LITTLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
   INLAND/AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS.  STILL...WITH A MOIST/MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AVAILABLE...EXPECT A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST --
   PARTICULARLY WITHIN A ZONE FROM SERN VA SWWD ACROSS ERN NC. 

   THOUGH THE STRONGEST UVV/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N
   OF THE AREA -- I.E. SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND
   ADJACENT ERN CANADA...THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
   SPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
   LINE....PRIOR TO STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.

 

post-987-0-44893300-1392818504_thumb.gif

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I would not write off the 2/25 - 2/27 period just yet.  There's still enough variablility in the pattern to get something going.  The rest of the extended looks fairly chilly, with cold either entrenched in the area or nearby.  Canada looks to stay quite cold.  It looked for a couple of days like the MJO was going to head into Phase 8, which is favorable for a cold and potentially stormy pattern.  Today, it does not look like it will make it.

 

One thing has become fairly certain this year....we are not going to get any sort of west-based -NAO to lock in this winter.  The mirage shows up from time to time in fantasy land, but it's not going to happen.  The Pacific will continue to drive the pattern.  A lot of big arctic highs are going to drop in down the road, so hopefully, with a little undercutting out west, we can get a well-timed phase to hook us up with a good storm before we're done for the year.

 

Oh, and it did thunder this morning -- a bunch.  It looks to do so again on Friday.  We ought to get some snow next week.

Agreed, nice write up. Looking back at past March events a lot of them seem to occur between the Feb 27 to March 2nd, the day 11 ensembles are starting to look better, if we are going to get something than next weekend would be a good bet. The average high in RDU is 50F in mid Jan and first week of March it's 60F, let's hope the PV drops in a perfect spot b/c without a -NAO we will need it. Also would like to see the trough sharpen up. It's shame about the MJO, it's been dead all winter though.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Per 0Z King: Absolutely idiotic cold enters the country 2/27. Can you say -25?

 

 

Yesterday CMC was showing extreme cold even though it backed off with this latest run. Still too many changes with in the day to day run. Though as SJ mentioned there is a clipper even the euro looks possible with 25th. But generally looking at the trough axis north/west NC may get some of that but the bulk looks to stay in VA by the 700mb rh.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

same 25-28 is still possible,  if something can pop up in 10 days on the Euro it can certainly pop up 3 4 or even 5 days out, so here's to still hoping something pops on the Euro.  looks like the cold will be around at least close enough if we can crank up a storm it can reach and grab some cold air to create a nice snowstorm.  :snowing:  

 

It is certainly still possible imo even with virtually no model support, especially given the very negative EPO expected next week  and especially for E NC. However, I'm leaning toward early March as of now for a better chance, especially for something more widespread, based on recent model consensus. Let's see what the 12Z Goofy and Doc tell us about storm threats and idiotic cold possibilites. What a winter!  :)

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Clear signal for cold air working south middle of next week with Alaska / W Canada ridging.  Then the Pacific Jet undercuts the western ridging and you get what should be a fairly active subtropical jet stream working east out of California, and running into the leftover cold.  Looking at 200mb on the 00z Euro Ensemble, you can see the Pacific Jet max located in the western Pacific at Day 1, and it works itself through the Pacific and into southern California by day 10.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Clear signal for cold air working south middle of next week with Alaska / W Canada ridging.  Then the Pacific Jet undercuts the western ridging and you get what should be a fairly active subtropical jet stream working east out of California, and running into the leftover cold.  Looking at 200mb on the 00z Euro Ensemble, you can see the Pacific Jet max located in the western Pacific at Day 1, and it works itself through the Pacific and into southern California by day 10.

 

Some cold air and an active stj, opening the gulf for business, can lead to good things for the SE.  Hopefully the models will continue to show this in future runs.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

It is certainly still possible imo even with virtually no model support, especially given the very negative EPO expected next week  and especially for E NC. However, I'm leaning toward early March as of now for a better chance, especially for something more widespread, based on recent model consensus. Let's see what the 12Z Goofy and Doc tell us about storm threats and idiotic cold possibilites. What a winter!  :)

I agree, what a winter and still isn't over.   :whistle:

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I like that suppressed look, with the cold air in Ga.  Maybe I can finally get something down here if it stays suppressed about the 27/28th.  Can't see the next frames, so maybe it goes poof.  Still looking for that split flow, and some cut off Ulls to sweeten the pot.  I think it'll be cold into April, even though I'm wearing shorts right now, lol.  T

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