aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it is over DC to me That's over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it is over DC to me lol do u know where dc is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow. Huge hit out here. It actually brings the front through a little earlier out thus way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well, when you have a surface-based warm layer, in addition to an elevated warm layer, you get rain. I know, shocking.. ;-) And really strong warm advection at 750 mb. that's why it warms some after 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ha...i guess we can hope the NAM is wrong..... Yeah, that's what we need to hope. Even if it's off by 2 degrees, we're still in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol do u know where dc is? maybe over Reston. It doesnt really matter at this time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, that's what we need to hope. Even if it's off by 2 degrees, we're still in trouble. every round of model runs, they get warmer in the mean by the time tomorrow comes, you'll need to have a PA zip code Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 when you look at radar, you can see the rain-snow line is aiming to the north a good bit http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 every round of model runs, they get warmer in the mean by the time tomorrow comes, you'll need to have a PA zip code Well maybe the gfs will help everyone keep hopes alive. I don't think I'll stay up for the run or if I do stay up late enough I'll be reading not model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM per WxBell is a slap in DC's face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM per WxBell is a slap in DC's face. Is that the right map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Is that the right map? based on the time stamps, it is, but that is plain wrong looking at the ncep maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It has to be based strictly off the 850mb temps... and of course 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like I am snow by 12HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM is a crushing hit for DC Metro. This one isn't over, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It has to be based strictly off the 850mb temps... and of course 10:1 ratios. Could be picking up sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wx bell is great but the snowmaps are terrible. They should just stop serving them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 based on the time stamps, it is, but that is plain wrong looking at the ncep maps Its strange....DC 850s are below 0 at 7a per WxBell (and stay below 0). NCEP maps are warmer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wx bell is great but the snowmaps are terrible. They should just stop serving them up. Total weenie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM is a crushing hit for DC Metro. This one isn't over, folks. If the thermal profiles are wrong but QPF is right.....maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM is a crushing hit for DC Metro. This one isn't over, folks. Crushing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We suck at this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The rain might fall fast enough that I can use the snowblower on it...gotta use it once this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We suck at this stuffAt least SNE is looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 according to Plymouth, every station IAD, BWI and DCA, has the warm layer at 750 even when the 850 cools Wxbell maps are carp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks the 850 retreats a bit from 12hr to 15hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Crushing rain. apg is snow at 15Z tomorrow so you might do OK with several inches NAM verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We suck at this stuff It's over for dc but points north should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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