snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 like Ive said before...some of you guys think im more optimistic than I really am because this board is so flooded with pessimism . The proof is in the weather data...Ive been optimistic often because we are often snowing at obscenely unsual levels the last 10 years. Its been warranted. But you dont win em all, and this one we are not winning. I havent felt good about this event for 3+ days now, and as said..I will be content if my snowpack stays the same. You want optimism....I will be adding 0.75" of water a snowpack that has about 2" of water already in it. We wont be hitting depth records, but we will probably have snow remnants well into April at this point, and we are further cementing (literally) the pack at a most opportune time, as apparently some think sun angle issues are already a play . Of course...that is all assuming it doesnt torch us and sink the snowpack further. I want a deep glacier, not a thin one! Healthy attitude. And who knows. Models have been nudging south the last few runs. Maybe a bit of surprise is in store for Detroit although obviously for you personally it'd be better if you lived on the north side of town (just for this storm of course...I know that Detroit south this winter overall has done very well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I wouldn't be shocked if we get 3-4" by the time we change over, especially if we get lucky with additional bands tonight. 3-4 inches today in spots just south of PIA...another band forming in western Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I wouldn't be shocked if we get 3-4" by the time we change over, especially if we get lucky with additional bands tonight. Eh, I don't know. Radar is going to have to fill in/redevelop behind Decatur, for us to do that. But, I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Starting to get within RAP's range. 22z run doesn't look too different compared to NAM with sfc features valid 12z tomorrow. Maybe a bit warmer with 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Starting to get within RAP's range. 22z run doesn't look too different compared to NAM with sfc features valid 12z tomorrow. Maybe a bit warmer with 850 temps. Does the RAP have a range? Or a good one, I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 RC and I up to Alek make the cut for lolli land this round of forecasting.... TotalSnow_Fcst.png yep, nice setup for several of us. Feels good being in the 'dark' band As I was walking the dog around the neighborhood this evening, I looked around and wondered where the snow removal crews are going to put the new snow. Some of the mounds are already 6 ft high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Does the RAP have a range? Or a good one, I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Eh, I don't know. Radar is going to have to fill in/redevelop behind Decatur, for us to do that. But, I hope you're right. Well it's dependent on getting into better banding again and it's pretty much impossible to nail down the exact placement. If the banding doesn't materialize for us, then 2-3" will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Does the RAP have a range? Or a good one, I mean. A weenie's gotta ween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 RC and I up to Alek make the cut for lolli land this round of forecasting.... TotalSnow_Fcst.png Yours truly as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well it's dependent on getting into better banding again and it's pretty much impossible to nail down the exact placement. If the banding doesn't materialize for us, then 2-3" will be better. No, I know. Maybe we'll get lucky again. I think 3" is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yep, nice setup for several of us. Feels good being in the 'dark' band As I was walking the dog around the neighborhood this evening, I looked around and wondered where the snow removal crews are going to put the new snow. Some of the mounds are already 6 ft high. yeah, was chattin' with a friend about this as well...gonna be some epic driveway/parking lot piles brewing after this event (not to mention if things pan out later in the week)...not much melt any time soon either....oh boy Yours truly as well nice...packin' em in that tight corridor!!! although most around here should do decently regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeesh if this works out for GYY, IKK, PNT, and VPZ. Warning text for those locales... * STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES. STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Temps here are running well under MOS output right now and a bit under the 2m temp output. Too early to leap to any conclusions but definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Temps here are running well under MOS output right now and a bit under the 2m temp output. Too early to leap to any conclusions but definitely worth watching. That may also be due to wet bulbing from your snow earlier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 yep, nice setup for several of us. Feels good being in the 'dark' band As I was walking the dog around the neighborhood this evening, I looked around and wondered where the snow removal crews are going to put the new snow. Some of the mounds are already 6 ft high. Saw some dump bed semi's carrying snow towards a DuPage Forest Preserve earlier today. Our subdivision has a service that takes care of driveways. They have a snow blower mounted on a farm tractor that can crank the snow a good 60+ feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Healthy attitude. And who knows. Models have been nudging south the last few runs. Maybe a bit of surprise is in store for Detroit although obviously for you personally it'd be better if you lived on the north side of town (just for this storm of course...I know that Detroit south this winter overall has done very well).I know its out of character for me to be sooo whiny lol...but another gripw I have is we finally get a storm with no wind and it looks to miss me mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That may also be due to wet bulbing from your snow earlier though. probably here's the current temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Temp here actually slipping a bit on my thermometer. Down 3 degrees from 27 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 WAA pulsing up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Raising your dab call for round 1 alek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 No, I know. Maybe we'll get lucky again. I think 3" is doable. Glad your scoring a few inches.. temp steady at 34 here.. Other than a little rain, nothing much.. looks like it's all staying north of here! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Raising your dab call for round 1 alek? nah. It's safely south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So is the GFS the most north out of all the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z RGEM made a pretty notable shift southward. Surprised no one mentioned it. DEtroit's back in the "good" snows on it. Mixing line only gets to I-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Going to stick with my 6.8" call for here. RAP looks like rip city here and all of northeast IL mid morning into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I know its out of character for me to be sooo whiny lol...but another gripw I have is we finally get a storm with no wind and it looks to miss me mostly. One thing about metro Detroit compared to Howell, you guys don't suffer the drifting we get out here. We probably have twice the snow here, but all of our elevated and exposed grass surfaces have been stripped clean of snow, right down to the grass blades. Yesterday was terrible, my parents house had their backyard stripped right down to the grass, but they have 4+ foot deep extremely dense snow drifts. Those spots will probably survive a few weeks longer than the surrounding snowpack, whenever the melt comes. I'll be disappointed with anything under 5 inches tomorrow. Our snowpiles are becoming epic, with 5+ inches of dense snow, they will be epic++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Going to stick with my 6.8" call for here. RAP looks like rip city here and all of northeast IL mid morning into the afternoon. trend arrow definitely pointing down...should still be a low end warning event but my confidence is decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z RGEM made a pretty notable shift southward. Surprised no one mentioned it. DEtroit's back in the "good" snows on it. Mixing line only gets to I-94. Sure is a big shift.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 One thing about metro Detroit compared to Howell, you guys don't suffer the drifting we get out here. We probably have twice the snow here, but all of our elevated and exposed grass surfaces have been stripped clean of snow, right down to the grass blades. Yesterday was terrible, my parents house had their backyard stripped right down to the grass, but they have 4+ foot deep extremely dense snow drifts. Those spots will probably survive a few weeks longer than the surrounding snowpack, whenever the melt comes. I'll be disappointed with anything under 5 inches tomorrow. Our snowpiles are becoming epic, with 5+ inches of dense snow, they will be epic++ Oh I know. Theres a field near one of the wyandotte schools that has a snsnow fence up...the snow us drifted 4 feet against the fence...then up to the school windows...then thr middle of the field is only a few inches. So glad we don't have too much open area. I know how it is up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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