Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

February 4-5th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 960
  • Created
  • Last Reply

WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. EC AND GFS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...GFS IS
A LITTLE WARMER AND IMPLIES A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER ON WEDNESDAY...EC IS NOW COLDER WITH ALL SNOW. BOTH MODELS
PLACE A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...AND
WITH THE SO-CALLED "WRAP AROUND" SNOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND EASTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL A
DRYING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING TREND TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hype really starting to spread for this one. People are citing maps from TV showing 20 inches of snow between now and Thursday. My colleague said this storm won't happen because TWC's forecast only had a 30% chance of snow Tuesday.

:lol:

I learned not to trust TWC for local forecasts with snow long ago either way... too many times expecting 6-10" in the morning as a kid and waking up to fog and 34.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks your going to go BACK to BACK jackpots!

Let's make it a threesome with next weekend's forecast system.  Then let's turn to spring and svr wx mode! :But seriously, let's keep in mind met Gil Sebenste's thoughts today that the models are too far south and see if his concern verifies with the upcoming storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Captain obvious here...but...Model systematic bias is to be too far southeast with the sfc reflection track with these kind of systems.  Usually the tilted low level circulation ends tucked more underneath the pv anomaly when it lifts northeast and takes on a neutral/negative tilt...with said wave being stronger than modeled.  So...I would adjust the sfc low track about 50-100 miles farther northwest than the model(s) show.  Now how much ridging/confluence/phasing/etc obviously will remain unknowns into the weekend.  I'm expecting a wintry mix locally...will be fun to watch regardless.  :drunk:  


Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Captain obvious here...but...Model systematic bias is to be too far southeast with the sfc reflection track with these kind of systems.  Usually the tilted low level circulation ends tucked more underneath the pv anomaly when it lifts northeast and takes on a neutral/negative tilt...with said wave being stronger than modeled.  So...I would adjust the sfc low track about 50-100 miles farther northwest than the model(s) show.  Now how much ridging/confluence/phasing/etc obviously will remain unknowns into the weekend.  I'm expecting a wintry mix locally...will be fun to watch regardless.  :drunk:  

 

 

 

This would also tighten up the mid level circulations. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Captain obvious here...but...Model systematic bias is to be too far southeast with the sfc reflection track with these kind of systems.  Usually the tilted low level circulation ends tucked more underneath the pv anomaly when it lifts northeast and takes on a neutral/negative tilt...with said wave being stronger than modeled.  So...I would adjust the sfc low track about 50-100 miles farther northwest than the model(s) show.  Now how much ridging/confluence/phasing/etc obviously will remain unknowns into the weekend.  I'm expecting a wintry mix locally...will be fun to watch regardless.  :drunk:  

 

The one thing I like  is this will be plowing into a strong 1030+ COLD high pressure (more like Jan 99 which had LP in MI yet we know the results).

 

NOTE TO ALL:  NO.  I am not calling for Jan 99.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The one thing I like  is this will be plowing into a strong 1030+ COLD high pressure (more like Jan 99 which had LP in MI yet we know the results).

 

NOTE TO ALL:  NO.  I am not calling for Jan 99.

 

very true.  Had about 22" of snow with the Jan '99 storm here and the sfc low track just west of me. Unfortunately cold air doesn't look as cold or deep in advance of this one.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...