buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Giving the NAM some respect, it did catch the Boxing Day blizzard back out on the east coast in 2011. Every other model had dropped it going out to sea-- the NAM set the trend out 60 hours of bringing the mother up the coast. This very well may go well nw, but c'mon, going back to 2011 to respect the nam? Hell I probably could find a coupe from the FIM and CRAS in the past three years lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This very well may go well nw, but c'mon, going back to 2011 to respect the nam? Hell I probably could find a coupe from the FIM and CRAS in the past three years lol That's the problem...how is one supposed to know when the 72-84 hour NAM will score a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That's the problem...how is one supposed to know when the 72-84 hour NAM will score a coup? You caught up in it too, huh? Whatcha thinking now...rain with 1-2" backside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I remember an event in early December where the Euro pounded my area for many consecutive runs (don't know if it was 5 days), and then it jumped ship elsewhere. So I wouldn't put faith in that just yet. euro, ggem, uk, have all placed this somewhere in sw PA around 96 hrs and the gfs is trending in that direction. Yes, they could all be wrong and the 18z 84 hr nam could be right. anything is possible in this game....and I'm being serious. But I've never seen the nam NOT overdo a storm at some point in it's run. Where the nam usually scores a coupe like this is in the 36 hours leading up to the storm. When it shoots nw of other guidance at that point, (inside 36 hrs, that's when I worry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sorry, I forgot to add these to my previous post..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You caught up in it too, huh? Whatcha thinking now...rain with 1-2" backside? lol Too early for specific amounts but a generic several inches looks good at this point. We may or may not have to fight mixing but one thing I have a hard time believing is plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That's the problem...how is one supposed to know when the 72-84 hour NAM will score a coup? it's obvious well before 72 hours that the NAM was going to be better than the Euro or GGEM...the problem i have is that there's really no good reason to think the NAM has a better handle on energy sitting over the ocean than the Euro or GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol Too early for specific amounts but a generic several inches looks good at this point. We may or may not have to fight mixing but one thing I have a hard time believing is plain rain. You missed my following post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol Too early for specific amounts but a generic several inches looks good at this point. We may or may not have to fight mixing but one thing I have a hard time believing is plain rain. I agree the rain should stay south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Like the heart configuration to the isobars. Clearly a camp of SE members. you should see the jma, it almost whiffs us and smack southern OH good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree the rain should stay south no matter what happens, I agree with this 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Plumes on board for **WWA+ at JOT .... **And the system isn't done yet muhahahaha FWIW....I'm bullish on this one...10+ bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Heart configuration on this beauty from the past too... EDIT: and no, not saying a repeat of that storm is coming. Just remember the heart shape to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 no matter what happens, I agree with this 100% +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hopefully MKE catches on to this rocket science model bias and reads the GB afternoon AFD. PRECIP-WISE...THE M.O. OF THE PAST COUPLE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN FOR EACH TO LOOK LIKE A BETTER PCPN PRODUCER THAN IT/S PREDECESSOR WHEN VIEWED FM A FEW DAYS OUT...ONLY TO END UP WITH A SWD SHIFT IN THE PCPN ON THE MODEL RUNS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. DESPITE SOME EARLY MODEL RUNS INDICATING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW TDA IN E-C WI...WE ARE ENDING UP WITH PRETTY MUCH A NUISANCE EVENT. NOW THE TUE-WED SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER S AS WELL...WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE A BETTER PCPN PRODUCER. HAVE TO WONDER IF LATER EVENTS WILL END UP PRIMARILY BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE S AS WELL. AS SUCH...USED NOTHING MORE THAN CHC POPS IN THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Heart configuration on this beauty from the past too... EDIT: and no, not saying a repeat of that storm is coming. Just remember the heart shape to it. vday 2007.gif you're kind of proving my point above. If the nam scores a coupe, it'll be inside 36 hours. That actually shows how the nam/eta sucks beyond that. Every model fcked that storm up....in fact I think it almost came down to a nowcast situation. we were suppose to get a foot of snow according to the forecasts the night before....we all know what happened ...well not for you guys... by the way that kind of looks like a broken heart...maybe it was accurate for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hopefully MKE catches on to this rocket science model bias and reads the GB afternoon AFD. PRECIP-WISE...THE M.O. OF THE PAST COUPLE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN FOR EACH TO LOOK LIKE A BETTER PCPN PRODUCER THAN IT/S PREDECESSOR WHEN VIEWED FM A FEW DAYS OUT...ONLY TO END UP WITH A SWD SHIFT IN THE PCPN ON THE MODEL RUNS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. DESPITE SOME EARLY MODEL RUNS INDICATING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW TDA IN E-C WI...WE ARE ENDING UP WITH PRETTY MUCH A NUISANCE EVENT. NOW THE TUE-WED SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER S AS WELL...WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE A BETTER PCPN PRODUCER. HAVE TO WONDER IF LATER EVENTS WILL END UP PRIMARILY BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE S AS WELL. AS SUCH...USED NOTHING MORE THAN CHC POPS IN THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST. i mean that is what has happened but this is pretty light on actual meteorology, not to mention comparing totally different system types/patterns. but they're the pros and GB is way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If anyone was wondering the amount of contamination. NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 wouldn't mind posting up on the slopes at wolf creek this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Light on the meteorology yes, but sometimes KISS and pattern recognition in the models is the way to go instead of saying like MKE is already with several inches looking likely way to early. If I had all the several inches look likely and busted early forecast I would have 60+ inches of snow this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS needs better resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gfs not going to play ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS needs better resolution. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 haha slightly different then the NAM. Are you going to PUNT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 slightly different then the NAM. Are you going to PUNT!!! waiting to 12z tomorrow before punting on a major...like i've already said. bonus lol @ MKX for mentioning the 6z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS needs better resolution. nice hit for SPI/CMI/LAF/IND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The nam is wrong. It's a disaster at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol why the lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 why the lol? Don't pay attention to him. Not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I doubt that sheared out pos turns into much, definitely won't be that wet. our current sheared out pos is plenty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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