40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 DT was also adamant that we would have a neg NAO winter. Fail-o-rama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 unreadable, some one call the cops, lol great stuff. As depicted in gridded data verbatim on the GFS ice will be 4 inches thick at HoarfrostHubb house by day 15 Should be a fun month to watch unfold. Start fresh on Feb 1 and see where it takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't see winter ending in 30 days. In fact...I don't see Spring starting perhaps until Mem Day...lol. God i hope not that late....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wrt the rain he means now. Split Flow incoming. Or something Yeah perhaps. I agree with that. What is bothering me is how or if models are right with the AK ridge retrogression. So far for the last week I've had my eye on this and my thoughts based on some MJO stuff have been right...I just don't know if I am correct for the right or wrong reasons. LOL. Basically the models seem to want to all of the sudden lose the forcing from all the WPAC convection...and it just is not happening. It may at some point, but it's interesting to me. This has been a bias all season except for about 5 days..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 God i hope not that late....... Well perhaps not, but it seems like cool Spring weather is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well perhaps not, but it seems like cool Spring weather is coming. Can deal with that somewhat, Typically its quite wet april up until memorial day up here any ways most years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 God i hope not that late....... golfing with orange balls and dead grass ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 DT mentions rains finally will be hitting Cali as a sign of a big change upcoming. Thoughts? That's what I've been thinking...I mean 5" at Squaw Valley in Tahoe since mid-December, them just getting precipitation should constitute a pattern change haha. What it should do though is instead of just cold and dry, the troughs trying to move through out west to bring precip to Cali, will cause the battle ground to shift a bit more north than it was previously when Philly was getting bombed. We obviously have the cold around and nearby, so let's get the storms moving. I would assume the Cali precip also signifies a more robust southern jet, which would be a change to some degree rather than northern stream dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ask Jerry about the Socal rule and Leon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 golfing with orange balls and dead grass ftl Yeah, I am thinking that most of the courses are going to have a winter kill problem this year as it is, Ice is very detrimental to greens on a course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 How about March, 30 days lol And doesn't April average more snow than November at like ORH or something like that? I sort of remember a discussion to that effect this fall when Will was countering Hype's claims of November being a deep winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 30 days of winter left? Lol. That's a stretch, that doesn't even take us out of February lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 And doesn't April average more snow than November at like ORH or something like that? I sort of remember a discussion to that effect this fall when Will was countering Hype's claims of November being a deep winter month.Pretty sure that is true, but I think 4/1/97 helped that a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 30 days of winter left? Lol. That's a stretch, that doesn't even take us out of February lol28 days in Feb, oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Pretty sure that is true, but I think 4/1/97 helped that a bit4/10/96 didn't hurt either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Pretty sure that is true, but I think 4/1/97 helped that a bit Well aside from that aren't temps colder in April than November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 28 days in Feb, oops I know. But it's only jan 29 lol. So it would be the last day of feb. really no difference, it's not true either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I know. But it's only jan 29 lol. So it would be the last day of feb. really no difference, it's not true either way Must be global warming. We now apparently have the climate of DC to some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah perhaps. I agree with that. What is bothering me is how or if models are right with the AK ridge retrogression. So far for the last week I've had my eye on this and my thoughts based on some MJO stuff have been right...I just don't know if I am correct for the right or wrong reasons. LOL. Basically the models seem to want to all of the sudden lose the forcing from all the WPAC convection...and it just is not happening. It may at some point, but it's interesting to me. This has been a bias all season except for about 5 days..lol. So sensibly speaking, what are the downstream impacts if the models are wrong with the AK ridge retrogression? A colder look in the east?Speaking AK ridge, impressive warm records being set in Alaska, which I'm sure will be blamed on global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So sensibly speaking, what are the downstream impacts if the models are wrong with the AK ridge retrogression? A colder look in the east? Speaking AK ridge, impressive warm records being set in Alaska, which I'm sure will be blamed on global warming. image.jpg Well if you retro the ridge, you flip the EPO and introduce more zonal flow potentially. There is some agreement for that near mid month...but I can't argue with persistence. I just don't see a reason to disagree much with the current pattern we are in and even if this did shift west....it may only be temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't see winter ending in 30 days. In fact...I don't see Spring starting perhaps until Mem Day...lol. I hope not. I need a good March. My new evaporator won't be ready until the first week of March so I'm missing a few weeks of the maple season. I'm just worried that the pattern flips about then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 And doesn't April average more snow than November at like ORH or something like that? I sort of remember a discussion to that effect this fall when Will was countering Hype's claims of November being a deep winter month. I don't have the ORH data in front of me but it's pretty close for me. My long term Nov average is 3.0" and Apr is 2.5". Oct averages more than May at 0.6", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Must be global warming. We now apparently have the climate of DC to some people. Lol right. Last winter was a complete dud up to this point. How quickly people forget. Going forward I would think even with maybe some rain mixed in, most of sne should be in the game for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't have the ORH data in front of me but it's pretty close for me. My long term Nov average is 3.0" and Apr is 2.5". Oct averages more than May at 0.6", lol.ORH April avg is 2.8"Nov is 2.6" I did find an old eastern post by Will that had a higher Nov avg but no April avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well aside from that aren't temps colder in April than November? No, November is colder overall, but the first 10 days of April is colder than the first 10 days of November at ORH...like around when Rev has been in spring mode for weeks...and conversely thinks early November is deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 April is a summer month,October is late fall, November is deep winter. Remember the bizarro comics? We're at the bottom of winter. As we climb out, hopefully the big snows come. But I suspect winters not leaving for more than a day or 3 anytime soon. The downside for us new englanders is the typical springs we endure especially near the coast. In late march of 2004 I had business in Honolulu. That was nice! I was there for 2 days, back to Boston for 1 night, over to Chicago for a week, over to South Africa for a week after about a 1 week break. Then over to San Antonio 5 days after returning. Intense period but by the time it settled do it was practically summer...lol. Ironically I'm going to Chicago 3/20-23, then overseas 4/5-19. By the time it settles down, hopefully a lot of the awful spring marine crap will be muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well if you retro the ridge, you flip the EPO and introduce more zonal flow potentially. There is some agreement for that near mid month...but I can't argue with persistence. I just don't see a reason to disagree much with the current pattern we are in and even if this did shift west....it may only be temporary. Makes sense, thanks. And yeah, I'm a big fa of persistence forecasting...to the point of why deviate from the seasonal pattern until it smacks you in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I am having fun too...but I honestly don't understand the frustration some have. That's the truth. I know you haven't looked at a model...but you should look ahead. I've liked this period coming up for a long time. Deep down I think this is N of I-90 favored...but this should be a fun time as a whole. Although it's been easy to b*tch about Jan in the deep interior I'm still ahead of my average to date. Then, thanks to a great December and epic CAD muting torches in the upper Pioneer Valley it's been constant snow cover since Dec.1st. So honestly winter has never left the lower elevations of NW MA and it seems like latitude friendly winter fun is in the cards the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Although it's been easy to b*tch about Jan in the deep interior I'm still ahead of my average to date. Then, thanks to a great December and epic CAD muting torches in the upper Pioneer Valley it's been constant snow cover since Dec.1st. So honestly winter has never left the lower elevations of NW MA and it seems like latitude friendly winter fun is in the cards the next few weeks. You guys are a good weenie spot. Those low elevations really stay refrigerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS looks like a north of pike burial on the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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