Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I know. I can barely contain my excitement for <0.1" of liquid and a period of 20 knot winds. Seriously dude? Wait and see . 1-2 statewide with some areas 3-4. Gonna be a fun day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Link to the model? You talking about the BTV NAM/WRF? Here's the NCEP version of the 4km NAM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This was a rain to snow that had a brutal little meso that tracked over the upper cape doing some wind damage and flipping everyone to a brief white out Great presentation on 12/9/05 by David Vallee: http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2006presentations.shtml This might be what you're referring to... featured convection in mesoscale snow band, "sting at the end of the tail" with 3hrs blizzard conditions... winds 80mph+ over Cape / southeast MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Wait and see . 1-2 statewide with some areas 3-4. Gonna be a fun day tomorrow Don't know why the 4km NAM looks wild. Looks pretty meh for me. Better for the Berkshires and Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Here's the NCEP version of the 4km NAM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/comploop.html http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM-HIRES&area=NAMER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Link to the model? You talking about the BTV NAM/WRF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Here's the NCEP version of the 4km NAM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/comploop.html Looks wild. It will have a few tricks up it's sleeve, but not sure "wild for all." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Great presentation on 12/9/05 by David Vallee: http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2006presentations.shtml This might be what you're referring to... featured convection in mesoscale snow band, "sting at the end of the tail" with 3hrs blizzard conditions... winds 80mph+ over Cape / southeast MA The sting jet is an awesome feature but still not very understood. A lot of literature about it in Europe. It's pretty awesome though with a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone and the bent back front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks wild. It will have a few tricks up it's sleeve, but not sure "wild for all." Yeah - verbatim it has a period of moderate snow with 0.05-0.1" of liquid. Not exactly wild lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A brief period of 20dbz snows...I do not think I would call that wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm just intrigued by what may transpire in the AM in eastern areas. WAA OES would be kind of cool/rare. May just be flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 A brief period of 20dbz snows...I do not think I would call that wild. Instead of mets questioning hobbyists..would be nice to get a solid forecast and accumulation ideas from mets. We'll see whose ideas end up working out. Mine is 1-2 regionwide 3-4 in some spots scattered around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Some neat LES at the end of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Instead of mets questioning hobbyists..would be nice to get a solid forecast and accumulation ideas from mets. We'll see whose ideas end up working out. Mine is 1-2 regionwide 3-4 in some spots scattered around i think most mets have made it pretty clear that most of us will see will be c-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Instead of mets questioning hobbyists..would be nice to get a solid forecast and accumulation ideas from mets. We'll see whose ideas end up working out. Mine is 1-2 regionwide 3-4 in some spots scattered around I already said my ideas earlier in this thread...I'd go roughly an inch. Probably officially I'd do a coating to an inch with spot 2" amounts for anyone east of the Berkshires. West slopes of Berks are a different story...good upslope potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 i think most mets have made it pretty clear that most of us will see will be c-1. I haven't seen any met say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I haven't seen any met say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The blowing snow today is making for some neat drifts on our roofs here, tomorrow should have some more. this one is about 4 feet deep. Its wicked out here on the roof working on a gas fired kitchen air unit, winds gusted to 33 on the Davis with sustained 15-18, wind chills -10 to -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I haven't seen any met say that I guess this shows that you don't really read the posts in here. I think around an inch is what I'd go for right now....can adjust up/down as we get closer. WAA is impressive...vortmax may provide extra lift. Would like to see a bit more LL moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Is that your official forecast? dusting to an inch regionwide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well I would tone down your amounts overall. Someone always gets lucky...just don't buy the amounts your throwing out....but that is usually par for the course. I do see sneaky light snows for some of the area like Ginx said early in the morning. Someone will see an inch tomorrow morning. I know. I can barely contain my excitement for <0.1" of liquid and a period of 20 knot winds. Seriously dude? Yeah - verbatim it has a period of moderate snow with 0.05-0.1" of liquid. Not exactly wild lol. I already said my ideas earlier in this thread...I'd go roughly an inch. Probably officially I'd do a coating to an inch with spot 2" amounts for anyone east of the Berkshires. West slopes of Berks are a different story...good upslope potential there. I haven't seen any met say that 3 different METs spoke up as well as several hobbyists, Guess you ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I guess this shows that you don't really read the posts in here. Where in that does it say C-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Where in that does it say C-1. Spin Dude, are you serious? "Around an inch" isn't close enough for you? Talk about a semantics nitpick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I guess he missed these I've seen them all. That was all yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Someone may get 1-2 in the lucky spots, but I think most on here agree C-1" or so. Shame on us if someone at 2500' gets 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Kevin, I'll cognrats you if there are several 3-4" lollis east of the Berkshires. Otherwise this is a C-1 or C-2 type deal...I personally think 2" amounts will be sparse east of the Berks, but I wouldn't totally rule it out. 3-4" seems like a no-go to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think the Ct river valley is in the subsidence zone big time, traces probably there as this refires east of them. i still am intrigued by the OES, not sure exactly what will transpire although the Mesos seem to indicate them pretty well from the SE CT coast along the RI coast to SE Mass. It may be 20 knots inland but anywhere along the coast will be gusting in the 40s with the Cape in the 60 range. Pretty crazy setup. although only an inch this has some big traffic implications in the spots where precip melts on roadways then flash freezes. Not a meh event despite being only an inch or two in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Dude, are you serious? "Around an inch" isn't close enough for you? Talk about a semantics nitpick. The funniest part of this site is how you guys hang on his every word and respond multiple times to the same things....every single event. It's the weather version of who's on first with Abott and Costello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I feel like it's the same routine every single event. If Americanwx ever branches out into Podcasts we should do one up from this subforum that is a parody of this but with the pros just answering "who forecast what" The meltdowns notwithstanding...it's too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 lol the last page was pretty entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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