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1/21/14 Snowstorm Observations


WeatherFox

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NYCDOE will make their decision at 4AM when somebody sticks their head out the window to see if it is still snowing.

 

There seems to be a lot of moisture down to our SW, can it be conceivably be snowing at 4AM still?

 

Are we past the height of the storm, or the mid point?

Can NYC/Western LI add several more inches? Any chane still of thunder on Long Island?

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NYCDOE will make their decision at 4AM when somebody sticks their head out the window to see if it is still snowing.

 

There seems to be a lot of moisture down to our SW, can it be conceivably be snowing at 4AM still?

 

Are we past the height of the storm, or the mid point?

Can NYC/Western LI add several more inches? Any chane still of thunder on Long Island?

 

Can you please stop asking the same question over and over?

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no...heaviest bands already happened for most of NJ...there will be heavy bands for sure and more accumulations to come but most south of NYC have already seen at least half of their accumulations

 

 

Suspect there is roughly 3 - 6/ more inches to fall (maybe some more)

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
522 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS LATE SATURDAY...REINFORCING THE
COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET
HAVE ALLOWED A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...THE EXCEPTION BEING NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH STRONG LIFT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES....RATIOS WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 20:1....PRODUCING RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR.
THE BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EMERGE LATER THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE TN VALLEY. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS THAT THIS FEATURE
CLOSES OFF SOUTH AND EAST OF LI WED MORNING. THIS MAY IN FACT ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER PAST DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS TO 990 MB EAST OF THE DELMARVA BY DAYBREAK. GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTION
WHERE THERE WILL BE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BECOME EXTREMELY POOR THIS EVENING....MAKING FOR EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...TO
NEAR ZERO WELL INLAND....AND AROUND 10 ABOVE AT THE COAST. PREFERRED
THE COLDER GUIDANCE...AND IN SOME CASES EVEN UNDERCUT THAT A BIT.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES LATE TONIGHT AS LOW AS 10 BELOW AT THE COAST...AND
APPROACHING 15 BELOW INLAND. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED LATER. FOR THE TIME...THESE WIND CHILL VALUES ARE MENTIONED
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS.

ALL WARNINGS REMAIN UP IN PLACE...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS STILL 8 TO
12 INCHES AT THE COAST....AND 4 TO 8 INCHES INLAND. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE JUST SHY OF THE 6 INCH CRITERIA.
THIS AREA RESIDES JUST NW OF THE BANDED SNOW AND MAY GET IMPACTED
FOR A SHORT TIME WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES EARLY THIS EVENING.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN HOW LONG THE HEAVY SNOW BAND
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING AND ITS PRECISE LOCATION. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF VARIABILITY WITH THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

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