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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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SREFs provide a storm track near the benchmark with a 992mb low.  The low tracks around 40.0n: 68.5w while the benchmark is at 40.0n: 70.0w.  As most of you know.  So right now the GFS and NAM are further east, somewhere around 65.0w.

 

I see the sfc low taking a Jan 2nd track, albeit maybe not as SE. but the precip plume looks about the same. NJ, LI, coastal CT into RI and SE MA.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Forget the euro it'll be last to this party

 

 

It actually isn't even bad for SE MA...it has a good banding signal on the NW side...but this often doesn't show up in the QPF field...not until late anyway.

 

I'd feel pretty good down in SE MA.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Ryan says there a huge contingent of posters that enjoy when this area missed out on snow. Do folks think that's true?

It maybe his area that misses Tue, lots of folks act weird when they don't get snow, others congratulate fellow weenies. I told you the other night when you posted the knock knock Jackpot joke it pissed some off. I am sitting looking at brown grass am antsy for snow but definetly not begrudging others.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

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These things, more often than not, overcorrect. We get one really juicy west trend and then its wagons east prior to the event start.

 

Hopefully we can keep the west trend up. 

 

 

Forget the euro it'll be last to this party

 

These two posts go with what we see a lot in these types of situations... as most point out in events that are threatening to go too far west, the models (specifically the GFS and NAM) go overboard west and amped while the ECMWF stays east.  I don't necessarily agree that we can say it'll be the "last to the party", as it tends to trend much slower from run to run than the American models. 

 

I know we had this same exact discussion prior to the Jan 2-3 event.  Someone should go back and find the posts because it may end up being very similar... the GFS/NAM and GGEM (although that's such a wildcard this year, its not even worth discussing) start getting quite amped while the ECM is furthest southeast in track... then reality ends up being that the American models overreacted while the ECM slowly ticks west each run to a compromise.

 

It is pretty funny how often that happens...however watch by 00z the ECM jumps way NW and becomes the most amped, lol.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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can we just get a storm that crushes the entire area? good grief

 

Unfortunately those are very rare.  I think January 2011 and Feb 2013 came pretty close, though they walloped SNE and eastern NNE, we still got a foot up here.  In order to get the entire region, I'll be on the NW edge because anything that jackpots me likely sucks for a portion of the region due to mixing or rain or whatever.  But I think those two storms were pretty close to getting most of us into the 12"+ range. 

 

Aside from that, most smaller systems just don't have the reach to get everyone in New England so there's always those looking in.  Getting a storm to hit all of SNE or all of NNE is an easier task though...but this pattern is an eastern snow pattern.  There's a reason why Coastalwx and Jerry have been going ballz to the wallz.  Seeing Scooter be one of the most optimistic in this pattern should say something, instead of tossing caution flags all over with ifs ands or buts. Those guys know this pattern gives them the best shot out of anyone in New England.  They deserve it too.

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