Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Some times axis of heavy snows change over decades, studies have shown that. Not saying this is the case but past performance in baseball or weather does not guarantee future results. Regression to the mean is never an absolute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I hope Kevin remembers today's melting when he's under good snow later Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I hope remembers today's melting when he's under good snow later Thursday.You seem confidant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You seem confidant I wish I was as confident as him..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm pretty confident. You'll all be bowing to me Friday morning. Either that or I'll be a laughing stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm pretty confident. You'll all be bowing to me Friday morning. Either that or I'll be a laughing stock. LOL hey it's on the table....just not sure if it's sliding off the table by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I thought Kevin averaged 55" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 AIT on the gfs. Snowy Thursday at Kevin's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 AIT on the gfs. Snowy Thursday at Kevin's house.clipper after clipper anyone could go boom, good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol....cmc blizzard Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol....cmc blizzard Thursday. When doesn't it show a blizzard. Horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 When doesn't it show a blizzard. Horrible model. The law of averages says it is going to be right one of these times. It will score a coup and then all the weenies will jump on board every succeeding run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The law of averages says it is going to be right one of these times. It will score a coup and then all the weenies will jump on board every succeeding run. Yep, and then it will be back to giving us both summer and winter hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol....cmc blizzard Thursday. Lock it in. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yep, and then it will be back to giving us both summer and winter hurricanes.JMA nailed Feb 06! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The 0z GFs looks warm again for the week of the 27th. Quite the model duel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Still think some peeps are grasping how cold it gets and for how long it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Tonight's 0z suite all show the d5 threat stronger (awaiting euro..not staying up). Gfs made a big adjustment vs 12Z/18Z. Cmc as discussed. GEFS are weak but hopefully more members catch this in the next few runs. Time to kick off a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Thread for 1/24/14 event. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42474-january-24th-potential-very-cold-snow-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol. Sabremetrics don't work in weather. I don't agree with regression. I believe in the law of averages . Mother Nature gave this area several monster storms because we hadn't seen any like it in like 30+ years . Maybe we still are "due" a few more before it ends for another period of years Aren't these the same basic premise? You regress to the mean because over a long period of time with sufficient samples you will come out near average. You can't always roll 7s and 11s, eventually you will crap out. Like many have said, it may not be this year. You could get smoked by the next big storm and come out at or above normal for the year, but eventually you will string together some below normals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 6z gfs is interesting on 22nd for the Cape. Definitely a western outlier but something to keep an eye on down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The ski areas outside of reindeer sweater world aren't bad at all. Oh well. It's going to happen. What parts aren't bad, lol. (Speaking natural snow). The bare ground to the top of Cannon on January 13th or the near record low snow in the MWN Ravines or southern VT with only patches of snow on steep north-facing hills above 2,000ft? I guess it's been a decent year relative to normal for WaWa though. Although the NH/ME areas will be closer to average than here seeing the average is like 50% lower and they got hit by several of those December systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 6z gfs is interesting on 22nd for the Cape. Definitely a western outlier but something to keep an eye on down there. Tim Kelly was texting me this morning on his way to NECN and I asked him if we'd get another 12" this month to avoid a sad top 3 worst January...he said, "yes, even if I have to truck it in from Cape Cod." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol....cmc blizzard Thursday. doesn't seem like the pattern allows it. maybe a snowstorm later this week for the mid atlantic? I think we get a nice storm when it relaxes a bit probably early - mid next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What parts aren't bad, lol. (Speaking natural snow). The bare ground to the top of Cannon on January 13th or the near record low snow in the MWN Ravines or southern VT with only patches of snow on steep north-facing hills above 2,000ft? I guess it's been a decent year relative to normal for WaWa though. Although the NH/ME areas will be closer to average than here seeing the average is like 50% lower and they got hit by several of those December systems. Pics I saw from NH and ME. Yours is coming in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 He will be fine. My words to him were for the winter. I stand by it. Yeah I have high hopes for Feb and March. That's a dangerous game having "high hopes" as the disappointment factor grows quickly, haha. But got nothing to lose at this point. What are you thinking for fine? Is that like maybe we can eek to 75% of average or something? One or two solid events won't save this...its gotta come in hard. The Co-op measuring can averages 1.6-1.8" per day during the bulk of winter, snowboard is more like 2.1-2.3" per day. These long dry stretches are just killing us relative to normal, as each day that goes Anyway, BTV has been joining the "punt team"...hopefully we all get on the "punt return team" after February 1st. BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE DEPARTS EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR MID-WINTER SEASONAL NORMS FOR ONE BRIEF DAY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN SOLID CHC POPS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHSN. BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST WE`LL ONCE AGAIN ENTER THE DEEP FREEZE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WISH I COULD PAINT A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR COMFORTABLE PATTERN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah I have high hopes for Feb and March. That's a dangerous game having "high hopes" as the disappointment factor grows quickly, haha. But got nothing to lose at this point. What are you thinking for fine? Is that like maybe we can eek to 75% of average or something? One or two solid events won't save this...its gotta come in hard. The Co-op measuring can averages 1.6-1.8" per day during the bulk of winter, snowboard is more like 2.1-2.3" per day. These long dry stretches are just killing us relative to normal, as each day that goes Anyway, BTV has been joining the "punt team"...hopefully we all get on the "punt return team" after February 1st. BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE DEPARTS EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR MID-WINTER SEASONAL NORMS FOR ONE BRIEF DAY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN SOLID CHC POPS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHSN. BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST WE`LL ONCE AGAIN ENTER THE DEEP FREEZE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WISH I COULD PAINT A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR COMFORTABLE PATTERN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. Probably near to perhaps a little above? I just think you are more favored as we enter Feb. I feel like it could be a gradient pattern for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Pics I saw from NH and ME. Yours is coming in Feb. We are spoiled. But pics don't look too bad here... its more just the not having 3-5 feet on the ground in the woods. 1-2 feet is "meh" If you want to see how spoiled we are, this was yesterday here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 My heart bleeds. Poor skiv2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Probably near to perhaps a little above? I just think you are more favored as we enter Feb. I feel like it could be a gradient pattern for you. nice... haha it just started snowing moderately and I wish I was videotaping the response from staff and guests here. This huge cheer just went up and you can hear people hooting and hollering in the parking lot. Its so comical. We live and die with this stuff, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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