Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Damn, ...did you guys see some of those GFS members for the extended? Caution, you may need to reach for an oxygen mask. I mean, it's obviously way out in la-la time frames, but ...I think it actually does hearken to the back-ground, large scale potentiality of what is in store. Get a load of P005 (168 hrs) aloft, together with its omg-omg surface solution: ...which, not to come off as a big hot dog but, while the D7 time range is bad for deterministic weather forecast, it is not the worst ranges, either; particularly when it has multiple members that do have an impulse in the flow in that same spatial-temporality, as does the 12z operational Euro.. In fact, the evolution of the member above that leads to that insane solution is really just a 12z, 1/17 Euroesque solution on steroids... I wouldn't have bothered to write this paragraph if there wasn't already some Jan 23rd presidence established, but merely lost. Here is a later history making, mass migration as though leaving Egypt to evade Meteorologically prodigious persecution: That pig took 2.5 days to complete its denudation of New England from off the face of the Planet.... Probably a 50"er. I was discussing this with a Met friend last night how this season so far, while impressive, has really under-performed substantially relative to the potential that has been there (speaking in terms of large event production/frequency). Cold has over-performed but for now, let's not disconnect the two characterizations of winter. Speaking in terms of just winter storms, we have had a few, and some better than other; but, drilling -5 SD air masses on such large scales into the 40th parallel as frequently as we have, when you have the World's 3rd most powerful warm conveyor of sea-modified air lurking now more than 200 naut. miles E of the EC, and we have this to show for it, is definitely an underachievement relative to talent (so to speak). It's like having an NFL team that has the most talented team on paper in the history of the league, yet they only put up a .500 record and get bounced from the Playoffs. ...He agreed. Still, winter is only half over. What I am looking at is a pattern of greatest potential I've pretty much ever seen. 3 waves of cold possibly nearing extreme slated to swath from the NP, through the GL-OV-NE regions, while there is this latency for warm ridging along the Gulf Coast to supply latent energy to any impulse equal to the task. Caveats to this arrangement of events is that it will produce an unusually large amount of ambient gradient. As we have hammered in the past ... too much gradient can drown storms in honey before we ever get a taste. But, these panels above have more than enough impulse-centric power to differentiate amid that gradient, and determinism aside .. they do the deed. That all covers the activity part... The teleconnectors are AWEsome right now - seriously. The EPO goes negative in a less than typically correlated +PNA, a temporal overlap that spans some 7 days. That is a long, long time to be in the cross-hairs of a cold rifle to expect not to have to dodge some bullets. Already, the operational runs (pick a cycle) are flagging -30F, 850mb plumes of air settling into southern/SE Canada and adjacent U.S. zones in the late middle and extended ranges. Other news organizations are headlining already. Time magazine put up an article that featured Wes, from Capital Gang (smart guy; remember him from Eastern way back in the day). Anyway, I think the incredible gradient of this winter has protected us from specific events more than less, do to the inherent deconstructive wave interference that results ... but that's playing with fire, too. Cold seems high confidence; a big storm deal or two may be less, but certainly not zero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Tip I know you miss stuff but Wes Junker is "Used to Be"here, writes for the Capitol Gang and is perhaps the Godfather of QPF. I swear you live under a rock. Great analysis though just hard to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Tip I know you miss stuff but Wes Junker is "Used to Be"here, writes for the Capitol Gang and is perhaps the Godfather of QPF. I swear you live under a rock. Great analysis though just hard to read. Just focus on the maps; text is a dead language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yeah Wes was the snow expert at HPC until he retired about 10 years ago. Brilliant man and a wonderful guy to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yeah Wes was the snow expert at HPC until he retired about 10 years ago. Brilliant man and a wonderful guy to boot.His QPF work and papers are legendary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just focus on the maps; text is a dead language.Lol, maps is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 There has been a definite signal for storminess around 1/25 on the Euro ensembles too. Any onf of these "threats" though can probably have a 36 hour wiggle room. The flow is fast BUT highly amplified...and smaller shortwaves will be troublesome for the model resolve at this time range. Heck, we have the 1/23 deal back on the table as a clipper/redeveloper/mini-Miller B from a shortwave behind the original one that the OP Euro progged two to three days ago. It's an example of how quickly the morphology can change in these fast, high amplitude regimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Thoughts if we can slow the flow down as we head into this period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 See what the GFS is doing now, this is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 When do we open the curtains and turn off the bonnie tyler? 1/23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 When do we open the curtains and turn off the bonnie tyler? 1/23? Well you might be doing that tomorrow morning. But the torch is over, and the next threat is 1/23....a tedious one, but there. I think after that it becomes more active. There will be some brutally cold temps mixed in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Moving into a pretty good next couple of weeks. Cold with possibilities. I'll take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Super bowl cutter on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Tip I know you miss stuff but Wes Junker is "Used to Be"here, writes for the Capitol Gang and is perhaps the Godfather of QPF. I swear you live under a rock. Great analysis though just hard to read. Yeah, I know who he is. Didn't know that about his NCEP work though - cool Sorry about the 'tough to read' ; it's because I mixed tongue-in-cheek humor with the science of matters. That can be confusing if one isn't expecting that. I corrected that to "Gang", from News... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Super bowl cutter on the GFS. the amwx powers at be should temporarily shut the board down if that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 There has been a definite signal for storminess around 1/25 on the Euro ensembles too. Any onf of these "threats" though can probably have a 36 hour wiggle room. The flow is fast BUT highly amplified...and smaller shortwaves will be troublesome for the model resolve at this time range. Heck, we have the 1/23 deal back on the table as a clipper/redeveloper/mini-Miller B from a shortwave behind the original one that the OP Euro progged two to three days ago. It's an example of how quickly the morphology can change in these fast, high amplitude regimes. Exactly, good paraphrasing ... it hearkens to not focusing on any specific member, but to just focus on an era of potential .. .like, seriously off the f charts. If we got through the next 15 days without something would have to be very rare, relative to indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 the amwx powers at be should temporarily shut the board down if that occurs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 but seriously....rainman posting 384hr cutter on gfs is purposely whacking the weenie bushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well you might be doing that tomorrow morning. But the torch is over, and the next threat is 1/23....a tedious one, but there. I think after that it becomes more active. There will be some brutally cold temps mixed in there as well. nice thanks, at least it'll feel like winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Great post, John. Between what you posted and Earthlight's post and some other things I have read, this could be a fascinating couple if weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Super bowl cutter on the GFS. LOL-wouldnt that be ironic--2 weeks of bitter cold and then a rainstorm for the Superbowl...actually would fit this winter's pattern quite well...watch that verify too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 LOL-wouldnt that be ironic--2 weeks of bitter cold and then a rainstorm for the Superbowl...actually would fit this winter's pattern quite well...watch that verify too... cutters always verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Super bowl cutter on the GFS. That was to get Kevin's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Don't laugh, but we've added the JMA and CFS here. Pretty brutal week 2 anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Don't laugh, but we've added the JMA and CFS here. Pretty brutal week 2 anomalies. image.jpg The cold is going to out-weigh any snow in terms of remembering this pattern I think...sure a rogue blizz could pop up, but the likely scenario of lighter snow events amid -10 to -20 departures for 10-14 days will be what this is known for. High confidence forecast in extreme cold. Highs next week are already below zero up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The cold is going to out-weigh any snow in terms of remembering this pattern I think...sure a rogue blizz could pop up, but the likely scenario of lighter snow events amid -10 to -20 departures for 10-14 days will be what this is known for. High confidence forecast in extreme cold. Highs next week are already below zero up here. what will ratios be with 484 heights, -28 850s and..14 qpf, sgz will be about 100 feet. Diamond dust special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 what will ratios be with 484 heights, -28 850s and..14 qpf, sgz will be about 100 feet. Diamond dust special Probably 9:1...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Don't laugh, but we've added the JMA and CFS here. Pretty brutal week 2 anomalies. image.jpg Any laughter aside, All smiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Probably 9:1...lolNE mass OES at zero was 15/20-1, pure fluff, guess it depends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 NE mass OES at zero was 15/20-1, pure fluff, guess it depends There was a pretty big inversion with the low level cold tuck. The max snow growth zone doesn't change...it's always -12C to -18C. If the entire column is -20C to -25C the ratios will be NBD. Actual diamond dust (IC) is like accumulating sawdust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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