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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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Just a little FYI.  MRG has a Valentines day special $14 on Friday.  Only catch- you gotta kiss someone (?).  Good timing.

I have a feeling there might be a line at the single.

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reached -12F this morning.  Nice cold.

 

Did anyone see the AFD out of Atlanta?  It's well worth the entire read, but here are two paragraphs (with my bold), with language you just don't see too often:

 

 

AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE SNOWFALL IS...AND MAKE NO MISTAKE THESE ARE
SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS...IT IS THE ICE THAT WILL HAVE THE
CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS.
A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ICE. FOR EXAMPLE AT AHN...THE GFS WARM NOSE IS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING
RAIN. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE...AM STILL
LEANING TOWARD KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF FZRA IN THAT AREA. SO WITH
THAT...ICE TOTALS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OUT BUT
THINK THE 1/4 INCH LINE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAX TOTALS
ALONG THE EAST I-20 CORRIDOR ARE BUMPED UP A LITTLE TO OVER AN INCH.
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN CASE IT HASNT BEEN
MADE CLEAR ALREADY...THESE ARE CATASTROPHIC AND CRIPPLING TOTALS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR
DAYS. IF RESIDENTS HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS IT MAY BE
TOO LATE.

 

and

 

 

PRETTY SURE THAT THERE ARE SOME THINGS I HAVENT COVERED HERE BUT
HOPEFULLY THIS LIGHT READING MATERIAL IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GET
EVERYONES DAY STARTED. THE BOTTOM LINE...AS THE ENTIRE WEATHER
ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...
THIS-IS-AN-EVENT-OF-HISTORICAL-PROPORTIONS!!
CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING...PARALYZING...CHOOSE YOUR ADJECTIVE.
THIS
IS A VERY VERY BIG DEAL ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA EAST ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF I-85 AND NORTH OF I-16
WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE TOTALS ARE FORECAST. STAY SAFE OUT
THERE!

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Man I am so done with this brutal cold stuff...-21F this morning. SLK hit -30F.

 

I've recorded 32 below zero 24-hour minima for mby this season so far and quite a few more that were right at zero or a degree or two above.  In other words, cold cold cold.

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reached -12F this morning.  Nice cold.

 

Did anyone see the AFD out of Atlanta?  It's well worth the entire read, but here are two paragraphs (with my bold), with language you just don't see too often:

 

 

and

Meanwhile the Atlanta mayor and Georgia Governor say "Only a half inch of inch? heck we survived two inches of snow.  How much of an issue could ice be"

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Man I am so done with this brutal cold stuff...-21F this morning. SLK hit -30F.

My outdoor sensor on the thermometer broke.  It makes it easier when you don't know.  That said we were only -8 this morning- hillside living.

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My outdoor sensor on the thermometer broke.  It makes it easier when you don't know.  That said we were only -8 this morning- hillside living.

I thought having some elevation at our new house would help on the cold nights to some extent, but we're typically 5-15F warmer at 730' compared to 1-2 miles down the road at ~300'. I have to check, but I think we've only dropped below zero 3, maybe 4 times this winter.

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Myself and a few other mets here at LSC are not too thrilled with this storm right now, despite the euro remaining steadfast.

 

If I were west of the greens I'd definitely be even more worried. GYX and BTV have zero continuity near the VT/NH border with GYX 4-6" and BTV 8-10"...I'm leaning toward GYX right now. Too many moving parts to be too excited on the NW edge.

 

First call:

 

NEK west to the greens: 5-8"

BTV: 3-6"

RUT: 3-6" and downsloped like a mofo.

East of the greens from Killington to LEB and southward: 8-14"

Most of SW ME: 10-14" with 6-10" on the coast.

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I thought having some elevation at our new house would help on the cold nights to some extent, but we're typically 5-15F warmer at 730' compared to 1-2 miles down the road at ~300'. I have to check, but I think we've only dropped below zero 3, maybe 4 times this winter.

We typically run 5 to 10 degrees warmer at the house in the morning than the bottom of the hill.  For example, we sit at 1288' and were -8 this morning while St. J was -18 at about 700 feet.  We do usually run cooler first thing in the evening however.

 

Here in St. j it is currently -11.7 (graph is up to date, box is not)

http://www.fairbanksmuseum.org/CurrentConditions

 

Peacham is up to 3.0

http://www.nkaf.org/weather

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I've recorded 32 below zero 24-hour minima for mby this season so far and quite a few more that were right at zero or a degree or two above.  In other words, cold cold cold.

 

34 times at my place, plus two more right at zero. 

Odd temp action overnight.  It was -1 at 9 PM and, given the forecast, I was anticipating a run at -20.  I was up briefly at 3 and it was -1, then after the alarm rang at 5 I looked again and it was still -1.  By 6:45 when I headed in to work, temp had plunged to -12.  At 9 last evening there was still some light wind, and I'm guessing there was just enough to keep lower levels mixed over the following 8 hr before things calmed down.  Noted -24 at BML.

 

I thought having some elevation at our new house would help on the cold nights to some extent, but we're typically 5-15F warmer at 730' compared to 1-2 miles down the road at ~300'. I have to check, but I think we've only dropped below zero 3, maybe 4 times this winter.

 

That's what hills do.  Check out CAR vs HUL on still cold mornings.  CAR is 50 miles north of HUL, but it's sensor is at the hilltop AP while HUL's is on a valley flat.  IZG vs GYX is another example, though being 30 miles farther from the coast also helps IZG.  When I moved from the Ft.Kent flats to the back settlement, I gained nearly 500' elev, and 10-15F on cold mornings.  On such mornings I'd make the left turn on the settlement road so I was facing the cedar mills in Canada, and if the smoke from their cone burners was layered at 100 yd or so above the ground, I knew our riverside office would be at least 10F colder than at home.  However, on a windy day my place might be 3-5F colder, and on marginal-temp snowstorms I'd sometimes get 4-8" snow but no plowing because it was slop that wasn't sticking on the roads in town.

 

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Myself and a few other mets here at LSC are not too thrilled with this storm right now, despite the euro remaining steadfast.

 

If I were west of the greens I'd definitely be even more worried. GYX and BTV have zero continuity near the VT/NH border with GYX 4-6" and BTV 8-10"...I'm leaning toward GYX right now. Too many moving parts to be too excited on the NW edge.

 

First call:

 

NEK west to the greens: 5-8"

BTV: 3-6"

RUT: 3-6" and downsloped like a mofo.

East of the greens from Killington to LEB and southward: 8-14"

Most of SW ME: 10-14" with 6-10" on the coast.

Bah humbug!

care to throw out a number for the the MRV ob the east slope of the greens???

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Because I am worried about a screw job in BTV with the cutoff I would want to go 1-3" (the emotional weeniecast) but for now I think 3-6" is a reasonable number.

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there are some saucy graphics being posted in the main storm discussion thread that suggest quite a bit of moisture will be heading into central VT.

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MRG weather blogger Josh Fox is extremely bullish.  15-30" by Friday.  2-3 feet by Sunday (?).  I'll be happy it we get 50% of the low end of that forecast.  It should be a fun stretch- it'll be white and frozen- the rest is just gravy.

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Back up here after a trip the past 3 days in SC/NC.  I was in Columbia SC, Fayetteville NC and flew out of Charlotte yesterday AM.  Pure panic mode down there.

 

Looking forward to another 8-12" in this next storm.  It seems like its hard for me to get more than 12" in these setups.  

 

I was looking at my climate data.  Last time I hit 50F was on Nov 18th.  3 months coming up!

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New WSW up here has bumped to totals quite a bit.

 

http://forecast.weat...ng#.UvvUg2JdXag

Quote

 

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-
ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...
BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...
WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
248 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT INCLUDING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

 

Oddly their map mostly show 8 to 11 inch amounts.
 
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Game on from BTV!:

 

FOLLOWING A GEM/UKMET/EURO SOLUTION SHOWS 996MB LOW NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS ON 12 THURS...TRACKING TO SOUTHERN NJ BY 00Z FRIDAY AND
OVER CAPE COD BY 12Z FRIDAY AS A 975MB AREA OF LOW PRES.
MEANWHILE...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED 85/7H/5H CIRCULATIONS WL
TRACK FROM CENTRAL SC TO EASTERN VA TO SNE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS A
VERY FAVORABLE SFC AND UPPER AIR TRACK FOR PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF OUR CWA. THINKING STORM WL FEATURE TWO PERIODS
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. 1ST WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL WAA
LIFT/FGEN FORCING ON THURS AFTN INTO THURS EVENING...WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. MEANWHILE...2ND ROUND OF MODERATE
SNOW WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEFINED BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/FGEN
FORCING ON FRIDAY MORNING. EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF MESO-BANDING FEATURES 24 TO 36 HRS IN ADVANCE...BUT ALL
THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR
PLACEMENT ACRS OUR FA. ALSO...SHARP PRECIP GRADIENTS/SNOWFALL ARE
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH MESO-SCALE BANDING FEATURES. FOLLOWING THE
ECMWF PLACES STRONG 850 TO 700MB FORCING ALONG WITH RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z THURS/FRIDAY....WITH PIVOT ZN ACRS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT INTO THE CPV OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN. THIS WL BE ENHANCED BY SECONDARY WARM LAYER
CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WELL DEFINED
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT AND WL BE LIFTED OVER THE LLVL COLD AIR
CONVEYOR ACRS OUR REGION ON FRI MORNING. ALSO...NORTHERLY FLW
DOWN THE CPV WL HELP ENHANCED LLVL LIFT TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THESE BANDS WL
BE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR WITH VIS <1/2SM.

 

I hope it pans out!

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MRG weather blogger Josh Fox is extremely bullish. 15-30" by Friday. 2-3 feet by Sunday (?). I'll be happy it we get 50% of the low end of that forecast. It should be a fun stretch- it'll be white and frozen- the rest is just gravy.

He's busted badly many times this winter...just too high on every event. It hasn't been a good winter to be bullish in the Greens so far.

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We've been telling you guys "congrats" for days...lol.

This winter has caused some serious psychological issues to the VT crowd. Haha.

I just don't like the American guidance keeping the banding a little east. If that sets up from Berkshires to Whites and ME foothills, we don't come close to 10" because we miss most of the WAA precip. It all hinges on that deform band.

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New WSW up here has bumped to totals quite a bit.

 

http://forecast.weat...ng#.UvvUg2JdXag

Quote

Oddly their map mostly show 8 to 11 inch amounts.
 
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Not sure- could elevation play into it?   Seems like the upper end would be slightly better ratios at higher elevations, while the map shows 8-11" in the population centers that are <1000' or so.  Could be wrong, but they were talking about 12:1 in the valleys and slightly higher in the mountains yesterday in the discussion.    

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