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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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how do you feel about the overnight snow in your area?

It's iffy. There's a warm layer around 800mb as it moves in (+1 to +2C). If we can wipe that out quickly it may get interesting. Either way it should be pretty dynamic. I'm expecting TSPLGS transitioning over to TSSN at times. There's quite a bit of lightning in NJ right now.

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Dry slotted for the last 45 minutes or so. This is always when the panic sets in. What if it's actually done, OMG, I'm the one in the screw zone this time etc.. And to add to it, I have a hard time trusting radar over here so I don't even get the thrill of saying "ooh, look at that band about to hit me".

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It's iffy. There's a warm layer around 800mb as it moves in (+1 to +2C). If we can wipe that out quickly it may get interesting. Either way it should be pretty dynamic. I'm expecting TSPLGS transitioning over to TSSN at times. There's quite a bit of lightning in NJ right now.

my dad was telling me that its freezing drizzle and light sleet at his house in Tooky right now, so it must be pretty warm upstairs

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Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.13” L.E.

 

We had 1.6” of snow through 6:00 P.M., and another inch or so since then, but the snowfall has slowed somewhat at this point.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.13 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.3

Snow Density: 8.1% H2O

Temperature: 13.3 F

Sky: Snow (1-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches

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Looks NNY is getting it good right now. Big ol' dry slot right up the CT River Valley.

BTW, I am officially starting to annoy myself with my hand wringing.

It is kind of like trying to not get excited about the new girl. Finally you start going out and just after you start thinking she may be the one, she goes out to Burlington with some other guy and you stay in and have old Mac and cheese from the microwave.

I'm going to bed and guess that I will wake up to about a new inch or so.

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Looks NNY is getting it good right now. Big ol' dry slot right up the CT River Valley.

BTW, I am officially starting to annoy myself with my hand wringing.

 

This was well modeled...there was a 3-6 hour period where a lot of models didn't have much measurable. 

 

The precip down in NJ right now will be our finale and the bulk of this storm.  Hopefully it rips as we will need to get some good snow accumulations out of that.

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It is kind of like trying to not get excited about the new girl. Finally you start going out and just after you start thinking she may be the one, she goes out to Burlington with some other guy and you stay in and have old Mac and cheese from the microwave.

I'm going to bed and guess that I will wake up to about a new inch or so.

How did you get a hold of my high school diary?
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We have some sleet mixing in here in Winooski. That is very worrysome.

 

This is mentioned in the updated zone forecasts. Shouldn't be a big issue overnight, though. Latest from BTV:

AS OF 918 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS MAJORWINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE. WATER VAPOR AND INFRAREDSATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENTATIONS ARE INDICATIVE OF EXPLOSIVEDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NEW YORK AND DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. INADDITION NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVEDFROM PHILADELPHIA UP TO NEW YORK. LOW HAS INTENSIFIED TO 983-MBAND IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY AS OF 9 PM. STILLEXPECT LOW TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERNMASSACHUSETTS AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE STRENGTHENING TOAROUND 975-MB. ALL LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN INTENSEDEFORMATION BAND WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2" PER HOUR TOMOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM.DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND ELEVATED CAPE NOTED IN FORECASTSOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TONIGHT ANDEARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE RATES WILL MAKE FOR AN EXTREMELYHAZARDOUS MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES DONETO STORM TOTAL SNOW GRIDS...10 - 16 INCHES STILL ON TRACK FORNORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH 5 - 9 INCHES IN THE SAINTLAWRENCE VALLEY.
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just measured a grand total of 2.4" here.  Probably was higher, but the recent addition of sleet/graupel probably compacted it a bit.  It's all good- I'd rather have some heft to the snowpack than not.

 

I'm not too worried about the latest NAM.  I'd stick with the Euro a bit more- as it was the most consistent, and the NAM's been the crazy cousin jumping all over the place.  

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