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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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Nice discussion by BTV about the change in orographic blocking.  We were getting hit this afternoon on the east side, and now its switched to the western slopes. 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LOW AND MID LEVELS DRY OUT. UNBLOCKED FLOW
EARLIER TODAY HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE BLOCKED FLOW AS FROUDE
NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN DUE TO LESS CROSS-BARRIER WIND AND REDVELOPING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED BY THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREENS THIS AFTERNOON NOW
TRANSITIONING BACK ONTO THE WESTERN SLOPES. BOTH MVL/MPV HAVE
IMPROVED FROM 1/4-1/2SM MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW TO NOW 1-2SM AND LIGHT
SNOW. OVERALL HOWEVER... BAND WILL BE LOSING INTENSITY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM.

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Event totals: 13.9” Snow/1.16” L.E.

 

The snowfall ticked right along here at the house today, with 7.9” new between 6:00 A.M. and 6:00 P.M.  We picked up another tenth of an inch before the upslope bands moved off to the south, but perhaps we could pick up a bit more if they move back this way.  We’re still 18” below average on season snowfall, but today’s snow made this the largest event of the season thus far and it’s been a great addition to the snowpack.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 7.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.46 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.2

Snow Density: 5.8% H2O

Temperature: 23.7 F

Sky: Snow (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

 

I’ve added the north to south listing of available storm totals from the Vermont ski areas below – amounts seem to be topping out near two feet:

 

Jay Peak: 14”

Burke: 11”

Smuggler’s Notch: 18”

Stowe: 13”

Bolton Valley: 18”

Mad River Glen: 19”

Sugarbush: 22”

Middlebury: 12”

Suicide Six: 25”

Pico: 22”

Killington: 22”

Okemo: 20”

Bromley: 18”

Magic Mountain: 18”

Stratton: 22”

Mount Snow: 20”

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory for Upslope Snow until 10pm, so hopefully we can grab a few more inches up there.

 

 

14FEB14C.jpg

 

14FEB14D.jpg

 

Yeah, that’s a nice little bonus for some areas that didn’t get as much last night.

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Just finished cleaning up what the plow guy couldn't get in the driveway. Going to call my final tally 15". Measured 13" at 9:00 before I left for work and cleared my "board". There was around 2" when I measured this evening.

As they say in SNE, deep, deep winter.

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Event totals: 13.9” Snow/1.16” L.E.

The snowfall ticked right along here at the house today, with 7.9” new between 6:00 A.M. and 6:00 P.M. We picked up another tenth of an inch before the upslope bands moved off to the south, but perhaps we could pick up a bit more if they move back this way. We’re still 18” below average on season snowfall, but today’s snow made this the largest event of the season thus far and it’s been a great addition to the snowpack.

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 7.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.46 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.2

Snow Density: 5.8% H2O

Temperature: 23.7 F

Sky: Snow (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

I’ve added the north to south listing of available storm totals from the Vermont ski areas below – amounts seem to be topping out near two feet:

Jay Peak: 14”

Burke: 11”

Smuggler’s Notch: 18”

Stowe: 13”

Bolton Valley: 18”

Mad River Glen: 19”

Sugarbush: 22”

Middlebury: 12”

Suicide Six: 25”

Pico: 22”

Killington: 22”

Okemo: 20”

Bromley: 18”

Magic Mountain: 18”

Stratton: 22”

Mount Snow: 20”

14FEB14C.jpg

14FEB14D.jpg

Yeah, that’s a nice little bonus for some areas that didn’t get as much last night.

Heads are going to roll at Jay Peak when they see that they didn't come out on top of the accumulation list!

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Not often you see Suicide Six take home the prize. Looks like BTV has the Jay cloud at the bullseye for the wraparound tonight- which isn't all that surprising. Could be looking at the best weekend of skiing this season.

 

In any event, the 18-24" map from last night definitely verified.  Gotta hand it to the folks at the BTV office on this one- waking up this morning to 4-5" on the ground at 6 AM, I honestly thought we'd get halved on this.  Nope.  Not a bust- just a dead on forecast of widespread 10-16, and 18-24 along the spine. Seems like everyone should be happy how this turned out.

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Heads are going to roll at Jay Peak when they see that they didn't come out on top of the accumulation list!

I wouldn't be surprised if they do pull another fair bit of snow this afternoon and tonight to come out near the top.  With all the hullabaloo about Jay's snowfall, they can do quite well in these wrap around events- something about being 4k in height at the dead end of the spine, the expansive and dead-flat St. Lawrence plain and NW flow that can really overproduce with snowfall- weirdly so. Never mind the often-accompanying heavy winds.

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I wouldn't be surprised if they do pull another fair bit of snow this afternoon and tonight to come out near the top. With all the hullabaloo about Jay's snowfall, they can do quite well in these wrap around events- something about being 4k in height at the dead end of the spine, the expansive and dead-flat St. Lawrence plain and NW flow that can really overproduce with snowfall- weirdly so. Never mind the often-accompanying heavy winds.

They do very well but I like picking on them. LOL

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They do very well but I like picking on them. LOL

 

You and me both.  It would be nice if they just got real, objective, and a bit more transparent (the only resort around without a Webcam...).  It used to be a special place.  Then the marketing department decided to take steroids and direct a crew of people to cut a trail to Big Jay (that's the conspiracy theorist in me talking). 

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You and me both. It would be nice if they just got real, objective, and a bit more transparent (the only resort around without a Webcam...). It used to be a special place. Then the marketing department decided to take steroids and direct a crew of people to cut a trail to Big Jay (that's the conspiracy theorist in me talking).

LOL. Never heard that theory about that incident. The thing is, I don't think they need to exaggerate. I've snowmobiled up there and they definitely get pummeled. I've experienced driving up through a general 2-4" and finding a foot there. I wish they'd get someone like PF on staff to provide reliable obs.

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LOL. Never heard that theory about that incident. The thing is, I don't think they need to exaggerate. I've snowmobiled up there and they definitely get pummeled. I've experienced driving up through a general 2-4" and finding a foot there. I wish they'd get someone like PF on staff to provide reliable obs.

 

The illegal cut down from Big Jay a few years ago was two rogue locals.  The actual trail from Jay Peak to Big Jay was originally a game trail- but IIRC a Jay Peak Resort trail crew went out and did some 'improvements' on this sometime in the past ~10 years- I don't think management approved it, but it's been asserted that somewhere along the way, people looked the other way... I may be mistaken, but that's how I remember the story.  Big Jay was the highest peak in Vermont without a man-made trail up to this point.  

 

Sad, really- it used to be a near-wilderness spot where few people ventured.  Now, it's kinda a circus with the straightforward, easy access from the resort- and not all are well-prepared for what they encounter.  Luckily there's enough people back there now that people get looked after.

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I just left Mansfield at 3:15pm and checked the base snow stake on my way out at 1,500ft and found a wind-blown 11" at the stake. So where there was only like 4.5" at 5am, we picked up an additional 6.5" today, and that's still climbing with the upslope that is on-going. The 3,000ft stake was 12.5" so not much different between the two.

All in all, no complaints about 11" of snow (no board clearing, just 11" settled depth over 24 hours) at the base of the mountain. Snowpack is getting up there now at 26-30" at the base in the woods.

11_inches.jpg

This was 3pm, my car and this lot was cleared and plowed out at 5:30am, so this is today's accumulation. Still snowing pretty hard up there.

[url=http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=121726]cars_feb_14.jpg[/ourl]

congrats AWT

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The illegal cut down from Big Jay a few years ago was two rogue locals. The actual trail from Jay Peak to Big Jay was originally a game trail- but IIRC a Jay Peak Resort trail crew went out and did some 'improvements' on this sometime in the past ~10 years- I don't think management approved it, but it's been asserted that somewhere along the way, people looked the other way... I may be mistaken, but that's how I remember the story. Big Jay was the highest peak in Vermont without a man-made trail up to this point.

Sad, really- it used to be a near-wilderness spot where few people ventured. Now, it's kinda a circus with the straightforward, easy access from the resort- and not all are well-prepared for what they encounter. Luckily there's enough people back there now that people get looked after.

Speaking of which, Jay Peak Patrol responded to a call of a broken leg yesterday between 12-1pm on Big Jay. The guy shattered his femur and they didn't get him to an ambulance until after 5pm...they were miles out there apparently and had to carry a litter and sled through like 4-5 feet of snow.

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Not often you see Suicide Six take home the prize. Looks like BTV has the Jay cloud at the bullseye for the wraparound tonight- which isn't all that surprising. Could be looking at the best weekend of skiing this season.

 

In any event, the 18-24" map from last night definitely verified.  Gotta hand it to the folks at the BTV office on this one- waking up this morning to 4-5" on the ground at 6 AM, I honestly thought we'd get halved on this.  Nope.  Not a bust- just a dead on forecast of widespread 10-16, and 18-24 along the spine. Seems like everyone should be happy how this turned out.

 

 

Nope, Sugarbush is now showing 29" at the summit.  But they are also reporting only 14" at the base, so who knows. 

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Event totals: 14.0” Snow/1.17” L.E.

 

There was just a final tenth to finish off the event overnight.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 15.3 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

 

I’ve updated the north to south listing of storm totals from the Vermont ski areas below; I can’t figure out what Mount Snow has for a storm total since they’re not mentioning it and they don’t provide 48-hour totals, so I dropped them from the list along with Middlebury and Suicide Six that haven’t updated.  Totals for the event were generally up and down around the 2-foot mark:

 

Jay Peak: 21”

Burke: 14”

Smuggler’s Notch: 20”

Stowe: 15”

Bolton Valley: 21”

Mad River Glen: 22”

Sugarbush: 29”

Pico: 26”

Killington: 26”

Okemo: 22”

Bromley: 20”

Magic Mountain: 23”

Stratton: 22”

 

The BTV NWS point forecast here suggests another 3-6” of snow through tomorrow night – I also noticed that the BTV WRF image that Dendrite posted in the storm thread has some decent liquid shown along the spine of the Northern Greens through Monday.

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My estimates of snow overnight were a little low (after 3-4pm) with another 3.5" at 3000ft. Storm total of 16" here in the upper elevations of Mansfield. Very slabby dense snow, great for the base.

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The BTV WRF has an areal average of 0.53" of QPF with Froude numbers starting out low tonight then rising near 1 early tomorrow morning, with slightly over 1 for most of tomorrow. Could be another bonus for the upslope regions.

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Ended up with 14.4" with the storm yesterday. After some settling we are sitting at 22" OTG.  I was looking back at my records of the last two years and 2/14 snow depths quite the difference.  2012 - Trace, 2013 -  1".  At 64" on the season we have also bypassed both of the last two year totals.  

 

Light snow has broken out already here and we have a light coating on everything.

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Tried snowshoeing, hoping the 3" of low-ratio endgame from VD2 would hold.  Nope, the hoofing was horrid - broke down thru after about half my weight was on the snowshoe, then sometimes catch the toe of my fairly flat modified bearpaws.  Our Lab was having an even tougher time, as her paws broke through and her belly didn't, leaving her without traction.  Can't imagine how bad it is for the deer; though our 80-lb Lab broke thru, I think a 30-lb coyote stays right on top.  Found 16-20" in the woods, until I found a stick strong enough to break thru the pre-Christmas sleet sandwich.  Total depth ran 27-30" though for the critters that sleet layer sets the sinking depth.

 

Still hazy sun here.  After running up qpf yesterday, gfs is retreating, more in line with GYX forecast here (4-6").

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Took the snowmobile out to break some trail. what a belt burner. Almost the consistency of sugar an little traction. Only get worse after some more snow. Probably have to trailer tomorrow to find some groomed trails.

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Took the snowmobile out to break some trail. what a belt burner. Almost the consistency of sugar an little traction. Only get worse after some more snow. Probably have to trailer tomorrow to find some groomed trails.

Our club went out with a roller to pack the trails last night. They'll be going out with the drag tonight. Right now they're using the groomer to build a 20' high landing ramp for a jumping show we're putting on next Saturday.

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