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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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just measured a grand total of 2.4" here.  Probably was higher, but the recent addition of sleet/graupel probably compacted it a bit.  It's all good- I'd rather have some heft to the snowpack than not.

 

I'm not too worried about the latest NAM.  I'd stick with the Euro a bit more- as it was the most consistent, and the NAM's been the crazy cousin jumping all over the place.  

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Really wonder where this convective band that's spinning into SNE sets up once it gets north. Getting a bit concerned it might ride right through here like the last band. What that would mean is jackpot is even further west than VT, but let's wait and see, perhaps some more eastern movement with the low, ironically for once, helps us out!

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Yeah, I can see the difference from the 18z run.  Oh well.  If I do as well as last week's SWFE (8") I'll be more than satisfied.

Keep the faith. SREFs and GFS look good.

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Sleet is gone, back to thick dendrites here. Should be  a fun night. The amount of moisture feeding in from the south is intense.  And the shift in central PA is pretty interesting.  This is a heck of a storm- some aspect are truly phenomenal. 

 

In any event, the higher summits must've pulled down decent numbers tonight, and we're already out of the "getting screwed" zone so far as this winter is concerned.  It's all gravy from here on out.

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Keep the faith. SREFs and GFS look good.

 

Well, I'm a weenie...just not a toaster bath weenie...lol.  I'll get what I get and be thankful this wasn't ots as was modeled many days ago.

 

The Sunday system is looking healthy and west on the 0z gfs.  What are the chances of that coming a bit more west...any?

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Lol quite the update. I was on the page and it said 4-8"...my buddy said it said "10-14" for him. I update it, and sure enough...lol.

I think we can get 3-5" though?

I'm not too gung-ho on this. I'm thinking 1-3" more here. Maybe 3-5" for LEB? TSPL would be pretty cool though.

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The spine around Mansfield is getting lit up again.  Should be interesting what PF finds in the AM.

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NAM semi-screws you VT guys...deformation creams the capital district of NY up through GFL.

The NAM may be right with that. We are coming in short so far with a better band in Eastern NY and extending just southeast of us. Accurate measurement is not possible with the wind but I thing BTV could bust. We shall see.

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The NAM may be right with that. We are coming in short so far with a better band in Eastern NY and extending just southeast of us. Accurate measurement is not possible with the wind but I thing BTV could bust. We shall see.

I was skeptical when I went to bed last night but it looks like we were walloped at some point and it's still coming down. Just looking out at my deck it looks like we are closing in on the low end of the predicted range.

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Prolific round 2 here.

 

Just got up and haven't measured anything but it looks like an additional 8-9" on top of the 5+ before the lull last evening.

 

Coming down at a good clip too, still.

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As of an hour ago I had 5.3" at home and 4.5" at the mountain. It is snowing hard but these are the smallest flakes I've ever seen. This stuff is so dense, I bet there's easily over 0.5" of melted in this 4.5" up at the mountain. I think the QPF forecasts will be correct but the ratios won't be.

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The main issue seems to be tiny flakes as powder said. Vis has been low at times but not the most efficient accums

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Snow is pouring now. It is tough to. The neighbors barn which is about 150 feet away. Ruler off the back step says Ten inches new overnight. I will have to venture more to try to see if that is accurate.

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seems like a band setting up Morrisville-Stowe-Waterbury down the MRV.  It's dumping here.  Haven't measured anything. looks 5" range.  Not a bust by any means, as this snow has some heft.

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Visibility looks like fog outside in the heavy snow, but man these are the smallest flakes I've ever seen.  Almost like sleety flakes. 

 

Looking at the web cam at Sugarbush, they appear to be seeing much more normal deform band flakes.  Large fluffy stuff. 

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