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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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i dont care if its the first, second or combination of the 2 systems, bottom line is, its gonna snow and should be enough to finally put the rock skis away.  Happy times are coming my friends!  keep the faith!

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About the same at my place - there was still some cloud-fuzz around the moon at 10 last night.  I don't know how long that persisted, but it couldn't have helped radiation.  Might make a run at -20 tonight.

 

QPF on gfs jumped from about 1/3" yesterday to over 1" this morning.  We'll see if that persists or was just an oddball run.

lol, 8F for the low at my house. -6F down at the bottom of the hill.

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12z EURO should make us all happy!

Except those of us on the coastal plain. From what I'm hearing in the "technical" thread, it sounds like a front-end thump followed by rain. Would be great for the mountains though.

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The Euro has now been consistent with this track putting VT/NH/ME in the Baroclinic Leaf or Deformation Zone. It has been considered an outlier before but we shall see. Again I don't have access to the ensembles.

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BTV just pulled a Winter Storm Watch. I am surprised to see that.

Yep, here are the first maps and some discussion that may brighten PF's day

 

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BTWN AMERICAN AND REST OF THE MODELS WL USE

A BLEND BTWN HPC/ECMWF/GFS FOR QPF. THIS SUPPORTS TRACE TO 0.10

SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.50 TO 0.75" ACRS THE CPV AND MOST OF VT.

EXPECTING A VERY SHARP EAST TO WEST GRADIENT ACRS OUR FA...MAKING

FOR AN EXTREMELY CHALLENGING SNOWFALL FCST. USING A 12 TO 1 SNOW

RATIO FOR THE VALLEYS AND 15 TO 1 FOR THE MTNS SUGGESTS 6 OR MORE

INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM CPV AND POINTS EAST. THINKING AROUND 6

INCHES CPV...TO 6 TO 10 INCHES CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH LOCALIZED

HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM KILLINGTON TO SUGARBUSH TO STOWE. THIS WL BE

SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES AND ULVL DYNAMICS

CHANGE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. EXPECTING GFS/NAM TO TREND TWD THE

ECMWF/UKMET AND GEM SOLUTIONS BY THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT. FCST TEMPS

WL BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED

OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP.

 

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

 

StormTotalSnowFcstZoomUR.png

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Earlier today I made a bet that we would get 4" or more at Plymouth State. All I need to win is to get >4.0" measured on campus. Really, every model has more than that. Only slight bit of worry would be the fact that it's Plymouth and we will get slightly screwed compared to surrounding areas. But I would be shocked if we got less then 4", or even 8" for that matter.

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Earlier today I made a bet that we would get 4" or more at Plymouth State. All I need to win is to get >4.0" measured on campus. Really, every model has more than that. Only slight bit of worry would be the fact that it's Plymouth and we will get slightly screwed compared to surrounding areas. But I would be shocked if we got less then 4", or even 8" for that matter.

I'll be really happy with anything over 3 or 4" if it breaks that way over here. You guys in NH/ME look golden.

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I'll be really happy with anything over 3 or 4" if it breaks that way over here. You guys in NH/ME look golden.

what's your take on the torch next weekend, think it makes it into NNE? 

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what's your take on the torch next weekend, think it makes it into NNE?

To be honest, I really haven't looked at it. Haven't really paid attention to after this storm in the past two days.

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BTV just pulled a Winter Storm Watch. I am surprised to see that.

 

It seems so early, but presumably confidence is high – watches are out except off to the west in New York:

 

11FEB14A.jpg

 

The current point forecast has 4-8” for Thursday night.

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Quiet here. Is this what nervous anticipation sounds like on a message board?

All is well. Steady as she goes.

I was just thinking. 06-07 was a miserable inferno of a start to winter. Worse than this season. Then came vday and it turned. Vday '14, the sequel, part deux. Obviously not anticipating anything like the original, but curious coincidence.

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The updated advisories and snowfall maps from the BTV NWS are below – it’s an interesting advisory map thus far with the stripe of Winter Storm Warnings down the middle and Winter Storm Watches still off to the sides; the areas to the west are where the snowfall gradient appears to be tight as outlined in the BTV discussion below.  The general accumulations for the Winter Storm Watch areas are anticipated to be in the 8-12” range”

 

…SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...USED A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/SREF/HPC QPF ALONG WITH CLIMO SLR RATIOS TO ARRIVE AT MY CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ESTIMATE. UKMET TOO ROBUST AND WITH ITS LOWER RESOLUTION HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE MIX. BASED OFF THIS BLEND...MY CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN HIGH ENOUGH TO CONVERT EXISTENT WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF OUR VERMONT COUNTIES...LEAVING CURRENT WATCHES AS IS FOR NOW ACROSS FAR NW VT INTO NY WHERE PCPN GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THIS SEEMS THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE FOR NOW AND ALLOWS NEEDED WIGGLE ROOM TO ASSESS FUTURE MODEL RUNS LATER TODAY. SO FOR NOW...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH RANGE IN THE WARNING AREA...AND LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WHERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER.

 

12FEB14A.jpg

 

12FEB14B.jpg

 

It was encouraging listening to Roger Hill’s broadcast this morning – for North-Central Vermont he was going with a general 6-12” snowfall forecast with the first storm on Thursday-Friday, then another light accumulation for the Saturday follow up; he didn’t give numbers, but I’d guess that means 1-3”, depending on what the mountains do, and then 3-6” or 4-8” for the Tuesday storm.  For Tuesday he mentioned that we’d have to watch out for mixed precipitation, with the line getting as far north as the Barre-Montpelier area for his estimation at this point.  It could be a good several days of snow though with a couple of synoptic storms; that’s something we haven’t seen much this season.

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Just a little FYI.  MRG has a Valentines day special $14 on Friday.  Only catch- you gotta kiss someone (?).  Good timing.

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