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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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I don't think it really applies to the Worcester Range.  They get a lot more snow with eastern flow or SE flow. 

 

The distance between the Worecesters and true Green Mountain Spine is too short to really develop true localized upslope from the westerly direction, or at least that would be my take.  There are a lot of events where the ski resort will pick up 12+ tapering to like 4-6" in town, but with no real increase again in the Worcesters. 

 

And to your guess, I could totally see the Worcester's at 3,000ft+ averaging low 200s, while the true spine a few miles away averages low 300s.  The bulk of that snowfall difference being made up in the large quantity of light fluffy NW flow events the Spine recieves.  The true Spine has a big advantage in anything coming from the west, be it lake effect left-overs, clippers, upslope, etc.

 

Nice post, PF.  As I've mentioned once or twice I'm looking to move from my present location.  The new locations matters not, except that it be in a spot for better upslope.  I'm considering the area up your way someplace between the spine and the Worcester Range at decent elevation.

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The 18z NAM depicts the final nail in the coffin for VTers this weekend... for the record I highly doubt this will pan out, but am just posting it for sheer entertainment value.  You gotta just laugh at it... I got a good chuckle out of this run.  Mother Nature would have to engineer this type of a system just to mock us in VT, haha. 

 

nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

the 12z euro also had us on the fringe, with most of the snow falling during the evening hours, and the total snowfall in the 2-4 inch range before tapering off.  Neither are good runs for the state, but given that the models are still 80+ hours out, I don't even think the hammer's begun pounding yet.

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the 12z euro also had us on the fringe, with most of the snow falling during the evening hours, and the total snowfall in the 2-4 inch range before tapering off.  Neither are good runs for the state, but given that the models are still 80+ hours out, I don't even think the hammer's begun pounding yet.

 

:huh:  The 12z EURO had 0.5-1.0" QPF across Vermont.  It may very well be too far west, but verbatim it was a solid hit.

 

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another thing to note is that axis of the high out in the North Atlantic.  While both the 00Z and 12z models had the 1236 high in roughly the same, the 12z model tilts the axis back to the northwest, which forces the low closer in toward the coast.  The precipitation remains on the east side, but it's something to watch for on the next model run.

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:huh:  The 12z EURO had 0.5-1.0" QPF across Vermont.  It may very well be too far west, but verbatim it was a solid hit.

 

attachicon.gifECM.jpg

that's interesting.  When I click through the hours using the timeline in the lower left, it gives the lower snow totals all the way until hour 105, when the larger amounts show up.

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awesome XC ski today up on the bench under the Worcester Range. (I just call it this 'bench' as it looks like a cool topographical glacial-age feature- relatively flat, slightly sloping away from the Worcester Range- makes for nice meadow XC skiing/snowmobiling). On a clear day, the panorama provides a view from Monroe Skyline (Sugarbush), Camel's Hump, Bolton Mt and up to Mansfield.  

 

Today, the sun came in and out as did the snow, as the streamers came in and out.  Mansfield/Smugglers Notch remained shrouded, while the I-89 gap down by Waterbury had some pulsating snow clouds coming through that low elevation stretch while Camel's Hump had a halo cloud with the sun beaming over it, then setting behind it. A very cool "snow globe" day as it's been described.  Got distracted several times, stopping and watching it all.

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 like I said, I leave the "science" to you guys.  I wishcast.  and I wish for enough so I can put away my rock skis. 

BTV updated my Pops to 60% for thursday but kept the same forecast discussion.

 

I don't know it doesn't look as bleak as earlier discussions to me.

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Oh yeah they updated that at 8am. I've got confirmation from a NWS met skiing there today...4" base and 8" up top. Photos look like its pure Champlain dust. I'm at 3.25" now at 3,000ft as the Froude came up this morning so our upper elevations picked up a bit more from this morning.

I love how localized stuff can be around here...April 1-2 last year we picked up a foot of fluff while Smuggs had 3-4". On Friday we had a solid 3" and Smuggs reported nothing...then today they've got 8" to my 3".

I see a lot on social media questioning how the snow reports between the two can be so different provided we even share the same mountain (Spruce/Sterling) and you can see the trails from one to another....but as Muccilli's Froude Presentation showed, it's all wind/inversion/moisture/location oriented.

It's the same reason why I get a chuckle out of people in other areas who assume a report must be wrong because it's a few inches different *only* 10 miles away...or they talk about it like "no way they got 6" in the next town over while I got 3.5"...we deal with huge differences at times in a span of 2 miles, much less 10-20 miles.

Like right now I could walk through the Notch and come out to 3x the snowfall on the other side.

. Funny you should say that. Killington and Pico seem to hav similar dynamics but the mountain reports one number for both. It's very misleading. Last week Killington reported 10" one day. Pico was lucky if it had 2-3. Today Killington reported 5" today but I'm going say Pico had a good 8+.

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Event totals: 4.3” Snow/0.15” L.E.

 

From 6:00 A.M. to 6:00 P.M. an additional 1.6 inches of snow fell today – it’s super dry stuff and settling fast however; the depth at my stake is actually less than it was this morning despite the addition of the new snow.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 53.3

Snow Density: 1.9% H2O

Temperature: 13.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.5 inches

 

In a season marked with a lot of negatives here with respect to snowfall, today’s storm was interesting on a positive note.  Since roughly mid January, the season has been running near to the bottom of the pack, only ahead of the very slow-starting 2006-2007, but as of today, it has pulled ahead of 2011-2012 as well.  That’s probably a good thing in terms of keeping it out of the snowfall basement, because in a few days, 2006-2007 is about to take a huge, 30-inch leap due to a little something known as the 2007 Valentine’s Day Storm.

 

Here’s the updated list of totals for this event from the Vermont ski areas listed north to south; it was a decent dump up and down the spine, topped off with 10” at Smugg’s.  I’m not sure if Jay Peak has updated their total or not because their site is currently down:

 

Jay Peak: 2”

Burke: 1”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 6”

Mad River Glen: 7”

Sugarbush: 8”

Middlebury: 4”

Pico: 5”

Killington: 5”

Okemo: 4”

Bromley: 5”

Magic Mountain: 3”

Stratton: 4”

Mount Snow: 5”

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Haven't gone below zero in a little while....the past two mornings clouds and light snow have kept us up. This morning an area of 2-4sm -SN put down a light coating of a few tenths, with up to an inch at the ski area.

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Event totals: 5.5” Snow/0.19” L.E.

 

There was another 1.2” of snow overnight, and it was somewhat unexpected since I thought things were supposed to clear out.  When clearing turns into an inch or so of snow, and two inches turns into four, it starts to feel like the Northern Greens again.  This latest accumulation brings snowfall to 15.7” for the first third of February, which is actually a pretty average pace; it just feels snowy after a January that took an entire month to accumulate that amount.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 4.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

 

I’ve updated the storm totals for the Vermont ski areas, listed north to south; I would have thought that Smugg’s would get a bit of a bump since we had some additional snow last night at the house, but their website says 10” in the last 36 hours.  Burke appears to be the area that was on the low end with regard to this event, being off to the east:

 

Jay Peak: 5”

Burke: 1”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 4”

Bolton Valley: 8”

Mad River Glen: 8”

Sugarbush: 8”

Pico: 5”

Killington: 5”

Okemo: 4”

Bromley: 6”

Magic Mountain: 3”

Stratton: 4”

Mount Snow: 5”

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0° on the nose this morning.  Had a dusting of snow that I thought was hoar frost at first glance.  Keep hoping the Euro has the right idea for later this weeks but am not expecting anything major.

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We can all hope, but in this winter, does anybody really believe that this weeks event will be something more than a coastal storm? Any by coastal I include the 3 feet of snow that could fall in Maine...Maine is the coast in my book. 

 

Personally I'm way more interested in the wave out of the GL on saturday. That has 8-10 along the Spine written all over it....

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We can all hope, but in this winter, does anybody really believe that this weeks event will be something more than a coastal storm? Any by coastal I include the 3 feet of snow that could fall in Maine...Maine is the coast in my book.

Personally I'm way more interested in the wave out of the GL on saturday. That has 8-10 along the Spine written all over it....

lol I know you're on the same page as me. In winter 2013-2014 is anyone expecting anything different? Persistence forecasting is the way to go.

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Meh wrt persistence. It's only your area that has been screwed. MI has had record snowfall too. The storm track has definitely been a little south, but you guys have had more bad luck than anything. 100-200mi here or there is not a lot from a synoptic perspective.

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 The mountains have still managed to squeeze 15-20"+  out of modest forecasts the past week or so.  Things are looking a whole lot better than a month ago at this time.  The overall storm track over the next few days is not certain, but looks decently promising, followed by a wave on Saturday- this looks to be shaping up to be a nice stretch.  I'll take it.

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Meh wrt persistence. It's only your area that has been screwed. MI has had record snowfall too. The storm track has definitely been a little south, but you guys have had more bad luck than anything. 100-200mi here or there is not a lot from a synoptic perspective.

Maybe it's bad luck but it's been pretty persistent bad luck with lows along the east coast.

It's more the synoptic pattern when lows get near the mid-Atlantic coast, they just have not been getting to us up here. Some years every single one of them clobbers us, other years like this one, they seem to escape too far to the east quickly. It's more than just "we've been getting screwed it's never going to snow again"...that's not the mentality. The clippers have been "ok" and that's at least stopped us from getting really boned. But just from December onward, any low approaching from the mid-Atlantic hasn't had a chance. It has to be a primary way west or a clipper.

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-8F here this am

 

About the same at my place - there was still some cloud-fuzz around the moon at 10 last night.  I don't know how long that persisted, but it couldn't have helped radiation.  Might make a run at -20 tonight.

 

QPF on gfs jumped from about 1/3" yesterday to over 1" this morning.  We'll see if that persists or was just an oddball run.

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We won't see a double digit snow in BTV with this type of pattern but I am with Ono, hopefully a good moderate event will come of it between the storm and the clipper behind it.

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