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SE snow threat 1-15/16?

Cheeznado

By Cheeznado,
in Southeastern States

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

I like to start looking at the WV @ this time to start getting clues it can help in defining where the trough axis. I have noticed on the last few frames that the base of our trough is sharpening up and it looks to be pulling our trough back toward the coast. This could be something minor or a start of a shift back to the west. Go to east then click on the WV and put it in motion. 

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

I like to start looking at the WV @ this time to start getting clues it can help in defining where the trough axis. I have noticed on the last few frames that the base of our trough is sharpening up and it looks to be pulling our trough back toward the coast. This could be something minor or a start of a shift back to the west. Go to east then click on the WV and put it in motion. 

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

It's something minor. We see this every storm and people freak out and then it turns out to mean nothing. We usually don't get model output equivalent to what WV shows, so it's easy to imagine things with no way to compare against what the model actually says.
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Folks,

 Ok, time to stick a fork in it for the coastal chances for Wed. night, which have always been quite small based on climo. It is done. Both the 0Z GFS and 0Z Euro are further from the SE coast with any precip. I'm done watching this one for the coastal areas barring some freak reversal of either the GFS or Euro. I couldn't care less what future NAM runs do if they differ from the GFS/Euro even though we're now in the NAM's wheelhouse so to speak. ;)

 Now time to look ahead to the late month goodness: cold! :) :)

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

I like to start looking at the WV @ this time to start getting clues it can help in defining where the trough axis. I have noticed on the last few frames that the base of our trough is sharpening up and it looks to be pulling our trough back toward the coast. This could be something minor or a start of a shift back to the west. Go to east then click on the WV and put it in motion. 

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

Hi rez version: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us.php

Click on WV once it loads, I usually click on <Speed +> about 9 times.

This one will get you the closest zoom: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us_z.php

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I say bring on the flizzard!!! 6z models continue to show light snow amounts for many and RAH continues to think there could at least be a good dusting for many; and possible black ice problems: 

 

THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE WELL-ADVERTISED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...AS
A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY
THE MEAN MID-UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
CONSEQUENTLY PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE THAT
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ALREADY BENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND PHASING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
A FOCUSED AREA OF 120-180 METERS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT - A TRACK FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION (NORTH OF THE VORT TRACK) ACROSS NC. NWP GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RESULTANT COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS...WITH A LEAD LOW DEVELOPING AT PRESENT AND FORECAST
TO TRACK UP THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE TODAY...AND AN INCIPIENT
ONE ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
HITS THE GULF STREAM THU MORNING.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE FORECAST NEEDS LITTLE ADJUSTMENT FROM PREVIOUS
ONES...EXCEPT TO INCREASE POP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT-EARLY THU...AND TO LINGER
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AND/OR DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING THU. SPECIFICALLY...AS
THE DEEP LAYER COOLING AND INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC AND DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT CRASHES COAST-WARD...LOOK FOR RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...THEN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AROUND THE TRIANGLE...AND BETWEEN 5 AM
AND 8 AM OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND LASTING IN ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD. QPF IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LIGHT DURING
THE TIME WHEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL - GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

THE LIGHT LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS AND A WARM GROUND THAT WAS
ALREADY INT HE MID 40S THIS MORNING...ONLY TO GET WARMER WITH
AFTERNOON SUN TODAY...WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING FOR
MOST (ON CAR TOPS AT BEST OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE CHANGEOVER IS DELAYED LONGEST). DESPITE THE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TRAVEL CONCERNS WITH BLACK ICE...AND
THE POSSIBLE LIGHT COATING ON ROADWAYS...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
 

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

The latest map from GSP:

 

ZbIQpqh.png

 

And, their discussion:

 

 

AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD AHEAD
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS AN
UPPER WAVE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG THE TN BORDER AS FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ENTERS THE MOUNTAINS. THUS KEPT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
MENTION OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG THE TN BORDER COUNTIES.
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS COULD SPREAD OUT INTO THE THE BORDERING
FOOTHILLS REGIONS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

FURTHERMORE...AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...NUMEROUS NEAR TERM HI-RES MESOSCALE MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...BLENDED CAM POP OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS TO ELEVATE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT TO LOW
END LIKELY LEVELS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN FINALLY
TO ALL SNOW ON THE TAIL END LATER THIS EVENING. AS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS...NUMEROUS FACTORS COME INTO PLAY WHEN FORECASTING
CONVECTIVE ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY FOR SNOWFALL. THEREFORE...BLENDED
CAM QPF WITH NAM12 OUTPUT WHICH PRODUCED GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGIONS. WITH THAT SAID...PREVIOUS PATTERNS
SUCH AS THIS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...MEANING
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

 

:popcorn:

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

So I guess that is our only hope on this side of the mountains.

 

AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT TO LOW
END LIKELY LEVELS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN FINALLY
TO ALL SNOW ON THE TAIL END LATER THIS EVENING

The latest map from GSP:

 

 

 

And, their discussion:

 

 

:popcorn:

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

CAE says it's still possible  :lol:   

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL CROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...SO KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL REACH OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE OTHERS
INDICATE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. ROAD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WITHOUT COLD AIR IN PLACE EXPECT ROAD
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO EVAPORATE ANY MOISTURE
BEFORE P-TYPE ISSUES DEVELOP. OVER NIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I say bring on the flizzard!!! 6z models continue to show light snow amounts for many and RAH continues to think there could at least be a good dusting for many; and possible black ice problems: 

 

 

Just too dry. The black ice is a concern, but I really want a good snow. Just can't get the cold and precip to come together.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

maybe I haven't had enough coffee yet this morning but to me it looks like the trough is dropping a little further west than what the NAM was showing.... may not mean anything though.

Maybe just a tad. 

 

For the most part I think the models have handle the upper levels ok. What I will still despute is the amount of qpf. Generally they have sucked at picking up the trailing front IMO. 

 

I think things will only get wetter from here on out for NC,VA. The trough seems to be progressing to a more neutral orientation via WV and the moisture aloft seems to be increasing ahead of the trough in the SE and Central GOM.

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

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RevDodd

RevDodd

Posted
Posted

I think things will only get wetter from here on out for NC,VA. The trough seems to be progressing to a more neutral orientation via WV and the moisture aloft seems to be increasing ahead of the trough in the SE and Central GOM.

 

I imagine most areas in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain under this thick fog layer will bust a bit to the low side on temperatures. If indeed that orientation continues, a few more folks in our neck of the woods could see more than token flakes. Again, it's not anything to pillage the bread and milk aisles, but a pleasant little surprise tomorrow morning.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

I imagine most areas in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain under this thick fog layer will bust a bit to the low side on temperatures. If indeed that orientation continues, a few more folks in our neck of the woods could see more than token flakes. Again, it's not anything to pillage the bread and milk aisles, but a pleasant little surprise tomorrow morning.

 

Ive thought that too considering how thick the fog is and high clouds coming in.

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