Toronto4 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Meh...i aint liking this. Not one bit! Marginal Temperatures. 00z RGEM precip chart at 48 hrs (00z Monday) has us at snow, but barely. As described by Hoosier above, we may need that last minute sampling miracle from the disturbance in NW Canada to help shift things to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Unless it shifts more NW you are fine down there. I don't foresee it shifting too much more NW, the Polar Vortex limits how far it can shift NW, just like the East Coast ridge limits how far SE the storm can track. BG will current it close. I'm hoping that the 0z suite is overcorrecting and we'll see a nudge back south a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I know there's a 54 hour RGEM. If someone has it please post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What does the RGEM show for YYZ? 2"? Doesn't go out far enough to full entail the storm but the track isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What I circled actually doesn't get into the US until close to 12z Sunday nam_namer_000_500_vort_ht.png It does hit northern alberta network though by 12Z 04JAN....so that might provide some assistance for us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Meh...i aint liking this. Not one bit! Marginal Temperatures. Yeah this isn't good. Only our luck we get fringed to the south with the last storm and this one tracks too west for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z RGEM precip chart at 48 hrs (00z Monday) has us at snow, but barely. As described by Hoosier above, we may need that last minute sampling miracle from the disturbance in NW Canada to help shift things to the SE. Storm should be fully sampled by 12z tom and a full analysis on what to expect by 0z tomorrow for our region. Upper air temperatures do seem cooler on both the 0z Nam and 0z RGEM, both below freezing. SFC temperatures are marginal and thats where the CAD/snowcover, comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Another nw shift and Detroit might start having ptype concerns. You're getting very worried. Just say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah this isn't good. Only our luck we get fringed to the south with the last storm and this one tracks too west for snow. With no fresh snow cover, even the incoming Siberian shot will be moderated. Just my luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 You're getting very worried. Just say it. Nah, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I know there's a 54 hour RGEM. If someone has it please post it. As far as I know, its only available for 6z/18z not 0z/12z. I could be wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 7 inches ORD skiling model ORD lower than any other site around. It knows. Roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I can't believe Friv has missed these runs. The RGEM is right up his alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 has MKE issued WSW yet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I can't believe Friv has missed these runs. The RGEM is right up his alley. Shhhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 has MKE issued WSW yet?? Just put 6-10" into the grids...for Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We both know order will be restored with the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 7 inches ORD skiling model Was that a screen capture, or did you take that with a camera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Rare that systems like this go west of Cleveland and honestly I doubt it does. Could be wrong though so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah this isn't good. Only our luck we get fringed to the south with the last storm and this one tracks too west for snow. That happened to Cleveland quite a few times last year, and this year has been almost a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Friv has NOT missed these runs..he's on the st Louis board..doing play by play..rgem gave him a stroke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Just checked out the precip maps for the latest RGEM. I may have overreacted as, at least up to hour 48, it shows moderate snow for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Is it possible, that with better sampling this thing may move back SE? I am thinking only 1"-3" here tomorrow. Just doesn't feel like a big snow,... feels like a miss, more or less. I am thinking our friends east of hear will do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Storm should be fully sampled by 12z tom and a full analysis on what to expect by 0z tomorrow for our region. Upper air temperatures do seem cooler on both the 0z Nam and 0z RGEM, both below freezing. SFC temperatures are marginal and thats where the CAD/snowcover, comes into play. Just saw the 00z RGEM precip type charts. All snow for the entire run up to 00z Monday. However, the R/S line is hugging the south shore of Lake Ontario in the Niagara region. The only way we could be saved from any mixing is if the low moves ENE instead of NE from western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 0z GFS might come NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Then there is this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I've searched over the 135 years of Columbus records, and never before has there been a rainstorm literally the day before a severe arctic outbreak. It's always been snow or nothing, so this would be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Even though I just got screwed by the models so far...I have to confess I'm dying to see what the ggem looks like at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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