Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Geesh, the 3z RAP looks like it would be even further NW than the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 EURO has initialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Skilling just posted all this on FB. All looks GO for SNOW! Light snow begins Saturday afternoon, but jet stream dynamics lock in Saturday night and Sunday. That's when snowfall is to pick up. Here's is the National Weather Service's SREF model jet stream forecast for Sunday as well as our RPM model jet forecast (at 500 mb-roughly 18,000 ft) placing Chicago in the left-front exit region of the jet--a region of synoptic scale lift. It's the place snowfall thrives and is right where you want to be if you want accumulating snow.The mammoth Canadian high pressure depicted on the GFS model surface forecast panel puts at 1052 mb (31.07") the central pressure the of air mass which is to bring Chicago's brutal round of bitterly cold air Sunday night through Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro has begun and FWIW, the 0z GEFS Ensembles were virtually the same as the Operational in terms of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro has begun and FWIW, the 0z GEFS Ensembles were virtually the same as the Operational in terms of the track. Yep but if you want to be nitpicky they were a smidge NW of OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 EURO is firing off the frontal snow north like the GGEM, but not quite that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 And the Euro comes in SE... (compared to the Nam) At 48 hours its on the border of KY/OH... EdIt: Its in line with the GFS and a mix of the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 here's one for you, NWohweather- the NAM 4km run that just finished. Still going your way to northwest Ohio. Don't know if the NAM has been super on synoptics here, but this is what we got with this model 2014_01_04_00z_4kmNAM_snow1.png That is almost a picture of my thinking with this storm. All along it's looked like Indy to Fort Wayne getting absolutely crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 And the Euro comes in SE... (compared to the Nam) At 48 hours its on the border of KY/OH... EdIt: Its in line with the GFS and a mix of the UKIE. I believe that's the blend that the HPC has been using for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Brutal ^Actually, pulling for that solution. I gotta flight scheduled out of Detroit Monday afternoon. Don't kill me. You're just gonna have to deal with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z euro near identical to 12z euro..blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z euro near identical to 12z euro..blah I noticed something a bit goofy with the Euro though that no other model has, it pulls some sort of vorticity out of Mexico and strings it out ahead of the main vorticity max, this in turn lowers the heights just a bit out ahead of the system which would lead to a further SE track. Considering it is the only model that is doing it to this extent, I would question that solution some. Of course the fact it is the Euro means you have to give it at least some weight, but last couple of storms at this junction had some funny business on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If I had to guess, the RGEM/NAM deepen to rapidly. Probably won't be to it moves through Ohio that is starts deepening in that manner. The globals seem to be indicating that. Makes sense, almost a general rule of thumb seems to be storms don't start to really strengthen until they hit the 40th parallel or get close to it in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 > 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 NWOH/SEMI bullseye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 NWOH/SEMI bullseye? 6"+ from just south of St. Louis/south central IL/central IN/NW half of Ohio/SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS and Euro continue to be relatively consistent. NAM definitely is the outlier. 0-1" call for the QC golden. Nice band of 6-12" from St. Louis through pretty much all of Indiana is all but secured. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Stebo has some good points. I'm pretty sure the EURO was a tad south with the 2nd wave of the system we just got done with. Even up with 12 hours of that part of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not looking like the "Hercules" the media is hyping it up to be. 10" of fluff, good times!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not looking like the "Hercules" the media is hyping it up to be. 10" of fluff, good times!! Hercules was the last storm, this one is Ion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Still liking around the 4-5" mark locally. Add in a little bit due to lake enhancement, and 5.3" looks like a good final number. With that, I will "officially" exceed the normal seasonal total for the area. I do realize the upside potential of this thing, so I'm not trying to be pessimistic. Still, uncertainty abounds and I don't feel too comfortable going above that number for now (not like it makes any difference, unless my walls really care about my personal forecast). Looking pretty interesting for lake enhancement across Porter/La Porte/Starke. Might look into that more in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 6z NAM is coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 6z NAM is coming NW. The initial frontal snows are a bit farther south but I think you're right about the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 06z is "wagons" North. This is going to be the most explosive nam so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 lol going to be night and day from it's earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 The initial frontal snows are a bit farther south but I think you're right about the main system. Yea. Frontal snows across the heart of the LOT CWA...And the main system is much farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Sig hit for the LOT CWA through 30hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yea. Frontal snows across the heart of the LOT CWA...And the main system is much farther NW. It's either going to score a coup and the other models will all play catchup... or it will be completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 it's amplifying way faster than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If (BIG "if") this verifies, along with the "life threatening cold" as LOT put it, it would probably shut down Chicago for 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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