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January 3-6th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif

Meh...i aint liking this. Not one bit!

Marginal Temperatures.

00z RGEM precip chart at 48 hrs (00z Monday) has us at snow, but barely. As described by Hoosier above, we may need that last minute sampling miracle from the disturbance in NW Canada to help shift things to the SE.

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Unless it shifts more NW you are fine down there. I don't foresee it shifting too much more NW, the Polar Vortex limits how far it can shift NW, just like the East Coast ridge limits how far SE the storm can track.

BG will current it close. I'm hoping that the 0z suite is overcorrecting and we'll see a nudge back south a little.

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00z RGEM precip chart at 48 hrs (00z Monday) has us at snow, but barely. As described by Hoosier above, we may need that last minute sampling miracle from the disturbance in NW Canada to help shift things to the SE.

 

Storm should be fully sampled by 12z tom and a full analysis on what to expect by 0z tomorrow for our region. 

 

Upper air temperatures do seem cooler on both the 0z Nam and 0z RGEM, both below freezing. SFC temperatures are marginal and thats where the CAD/snowcover, comes into play. 

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Is it possible, that with better sampling this  thing may move back SE? I am thinking only 1"-3" here tomorrow.  Just doesn't feel like a big snow,... feels like a miss, more or less.  I am thinking our friends east of hear will do better

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Storm should be fully sampled by 12z tom and a full analysis on what to expect by 0z tomorrow for our region.

Upper air temperatures do seem cooler on both the 0z Nam and 0z RGEM, both below freezing. SFC temperatures are marginal and thats where the CAD/snowcover, comes into play.

Just saw the 00z RGEM precip type charts. All snow for the entire run up to 00z Monday. However, the R/S line is hugging the south shore of Lake Ontario in the Niagara region. The only way we could be saved from any mixing is if the low moves ENE instead of NE from western Ohio.

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