Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Here is a rather coarse, sort of 50,000 foot view utilizing just the PNA. The event frequency/distribution (spatial-temporal) actually does fit rather well. It's evidenced at both the CDC and CPC versions of the teleconnector, but a bit more elaborate at the CDC so am using this annotation: The next in the series (post this Friday's kerfoffel...) would be timed during the Jan 6-8 period, a time in which a few operational runs and a few ensemble members are flagging an event. The Euro is extreme at 500mb like I have never seen. 492 dm height core with attendant nearing -30C at 850 over WI, while we run up +8C at 850 clear to nearly Boston, where the 500mb heights are around 552 dm (all this at D+168 hours) not only transcends absurdity, but also quite frankly settles right into the ECMWF's dig-and-build zealot behavior it has in the D6-10 range. The amount of D7 lead time requires the perfunctory scrutiny, but the absurdity really adds to that. I would be shocked if this/that solution survived even 3 additional modeling cycles. Having said all that ... yeah, I still see that Jan 6-8 in a fast progressive flow, that allows rapid turn-over of events, as a decent enough fit therein to think there should be something on the charts. The GFS has it's own version of that event, with some vestigial suggestion for negative trough amplitude; it just doesn't bodily subsume the southern stream with the entire SPV like the Euro's mania attempts... That, and again ... these subtle PNA blips do tend to circuit impulses from off the Pac, ...finding their way into a positive feed-back over eastern N/A, during.... Btw, going forward ... huge -EPO signaled, so the cold loading is likely to recur as we head into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Here is a rather coarse, sort of 50,000 foot view utilizing just the PNA. The event frequency/distribution (spatial-temporal) actually does fit rather well. It's evidenced at both the CDC and CPC versions of the teleconnector, but a bit more elaborate at the CDC so am using this annotation: pna1.jpg The next in the series (post this Friday's kerfoffel...) would be timed during the Jan 6-8 period, a time in which a few operational runs and a few ensemble members are flagging an event. The Euro is extreme at 500mb like I have never seen. 492 dm height core with attendant nearing -30C at 850 over WI, while we run up +8C at 850 clear to nearly Boston, where the 500mb heights are around 552 dm (all this at D+168 hours) not only transcends absurdity, but also quite frankly settles right into the ECMWF's dig-and-build zealot behavior it has in the D6-10 range. The amount of D7 lead time requires the perfunctory scrutiny, but the absurdity really adds to that. I would be shocked if this/that solution survived even 3 additional modeling cycles. Having said all that ... yeah, I still see that Jan 6-8 in a fast progressive flow, that allows rapid turn-over of events, as a decent enough fit therein to think there should be something on the charts. The GFS has it's own version of that event, with some vestigial suggestion for negative trough amplitude; it just doesn't bodily subsume the southern stream with the entire SPV like the Euro's mania attempts... GFS.jpg That, and again ... these subtle PNA blips do tend to circuit impulses from off the Pac, ...finding their way into a positive feed-back over eastern N/A, during.... Btw, going forward ... huge -EPO signaled, so the cold loading is likely to recur as we head into January. No joke, Euro paints a picture that looks kinda similar to a certain coastal storm we had last year... Not nearly as strong, but amazing to see how it pulls those airmasses around. Crappy storm here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 BTV AFD from this afternoon: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off NEXT FULL LATITUDE TROF WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES WL IMPACT CWAON MONDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STRONGDYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...SO STAY TUNED. TEMPS WL MODIFY TO NEARNORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVESBY MID WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lock it in. Cutters always verify without any problem . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lock it in. Cutters always verify without any problem .. I bet that is true more often than notSomeone, do a study on cutters and their correlation to weenie deflation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lock it in. Cutters always verify without any problem . Seems that way - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It seems like that... But cutters can swing 200 miles east and still be cutters... A 200 mile shift means OTS for most coastal storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You can't make this up. Epic differences between euro and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I remember a storm about 4/5 years ago that was modeled to track over Chicago and over the course of 2 runs it turned into a coastal storm and actually verified as a good hit like 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You can't make this up. Epic differences between euro and gfs. Couldn't be much different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I remember a storm about 4/5 years ago that was modeled to track over Chicago and over the course of 2 runs it turned into a coastal storm and actually verified as a good hit like 2 days outDec 27 2010 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Dec 27 2010 I believe I'm pretty sure it was the winter before that. Maybe DEC 2009. The 12z GFS came in and tracked it off the coast after the 00z run tracked it right up through Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm pretty sure it was the winter before that. Maybe DEC 2009. The 12z GFS came in and tracked it off the coast after the 00z run tracking it right up through ChicagoI know it was Dec 27 but might be off on the year. It ended up a frigid powder bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I know it was Dec 27 but might be off on the year. It ended up a frigid powder bomb Yep sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 dec 27 2010 was boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 dec 27 2010 was boxing day.Isnt Boxing Day Dec 26th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It started on the 26th and lasted into the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When the NWS offices to your west are discussing the next system as going to be west and warm, it does give one pause and temper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When the NWS offices to your west are discussing the next system as going to be west and warm, it does give one pause and temper expectations. Tell you what, no matter which model you look at, somebody is getting some killer cold next week. Maybe not us, though, I'll agree with your concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When the NWS offices to your west are discussing the next system as going to be west and warm, it does give one pause and temper expectations. LOL. Not a real confidence builder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was 2010 , amd the first big storm of 2010-2011. It was the biggest model bust within 48 hrs i have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was 2010 , amd the first big storm of 2010-2011. It was the biggest model bust within 48 hrs i have ever seen. The track literally jumped over 800 miles in 1 or 2 model cycles. From Chicago to off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 . I bet that is true more often than not Someone, do a study on cutters and their correlation to weenie deflation It is selective memory. If a storm goes over Detroit instead of Chicago, its a 200 mile bust by the models, but we think it "verified" because both solutions give us a rainstorm...so we incorrectly chalk it up as a "success" by the models. A 200 mile shift when the original track was over the benchmark is either suppression depression or amped into a rainstorm, so we'll remember those vividly. Likewise, the model could be off by "only" 20 miles which is a solid performance, but some weenie who missed the heaviest precip by 10 miles will scream that the model was horrible because their backyard didn't get as much snow as the model said it would even if it was correct for 90% of the region. It's just the nature of selective memory for us to have difficulty in seperating out the illusions from reality. I usually try and save as many model runs leading up to a storm here that I can, which helps in looking back to see which models were showing what if I forget what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wasn't serious. Selective memory yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wasn't serious. Selective memory yes... Ahh...silly me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ahh...silly me.No. You are right. We (collectively) tend to be rather myopic and focus on our backyardsBut...cutters gonna cut. Hope you get a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro has the ultimate cutter next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro has the ultimate cutter next Monday.Still nothing on the GFS? How far west of Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Around Northeast PA over ALB to BTV.... But not sure why would take it seriously when it just bowed down completely on this near term low. Still nothing on the GFS? How far west of Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still nothing on the GFS? How far west of Boston? Several hundred miles west of Boston, closer to Buffalo. Yes, gfs op is much weaker but a few of the ensemble members have a more amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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