Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Several hundred miles west of Boston, closer to Buffalo. Yes, gfs op is much weaker but a few of the ensemble members have a more amped solution. Already trending East with 7 days to go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow, this a dead ringer for the Cleveland Super Bomb of 1978, pushed a bit east. Tip, I recall you mentioning you were in SW Michigan for that, I was in Northern IN. Arguably the fiercest non-hurricane to hit the USA. Road trip to Erie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Drip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And here's your cutter torch storm from Ryan lol..I 'll take it 100 times over thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Emerging cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Emerging cutter. I'll take Ryan's idea thanks Even Phil has a mix and 40 on the Cape. 2 great mets This isn't going to be a torching cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can't troll without Kevin getting worked up. But, I do think the cutter option is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can't troll without Kevin getting worked up. But, I do think the cutter option is there. Why would a pro met with 500,000 posts troll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why would a pro met with 500,000 posts troll? LOL because you are getting worried and you should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOL because you are getting worried and you should be. I'm not worried abou a wintry mix turning to light rain at 33-34 and then flashing back to snow after the arctic front passes. Maybe that worries you..but not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not worried abou a wintry mix turning to light rain at 33-34 and then flashing back to snow after the arctic front passes. Maybe that worries you..but not me Hey whatever makes you sleep easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Personally I'm rooting for the big (unlikely) euro solution with the whole spv getting involved cause that would just be cool as hell. who cares about a torch at that point if we can see that and the ensuing arctic outbreak. Besides, its probably going to "torch" for a couple days either way within that 10th-15th time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Personally I'm rooting for the big (unlikely) euro solution with the whole spv getting involved cause that would just be cool as hell. who cares about a torch at that point if we can see that and the ensuing arctic outbreak. Besides, its probably going to "torch" for a couple days either way within that 10th-15th time frame Agreed. And if the euro is right, it will be fascinating to watch a potentially historic storm evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not worried abou a wintry mix turning to light rain at 33-34 and then flashing back to snow after the arctic front passes. Maybe that worries you..but not me If you say the triple point will redevelop near NYC enough times in your sleep, it might come true. Cutter is absolutely a valid option...it could end up colder too, but to blindly state that a cutter won't happen is not supported by any actual valid meteorology at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If you say the triple point will redevelop near NYC enough times in your sleep, it might come true. Cutter is absolutely a valid option...it could end up colder too, but to blindly state that a cutter won't happen is not supported by any actual valid meteorology at this time range. Cutter doesn't have to mean 50-60 and rain.. i think that's where confusion is setting in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Cutter doesn't have to mean 50-60 and rain.. i think that's where confusion is setting in You are correct...but 50s and rain for 6-8 hours in the warm sector is a valid option too. Why can't it be? You can't use the cold as an excuse because I just showed yesterday how it happened in one of the coldest months and in between the some of the coldest airmasses we've seen the past few decades. If we get closer and a more defined high pressure shows up north of ME, then I'll def hit the icier/triple point scenario...but right now we don't have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOL at Kevin saying confusion. Look into the mirror. Personally this is an interesting setup. I do agree it may not be 60 and rain. However, that option is staring at you in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Cutter doesn't have to mean 50-60 and rain.. i think that's where confusion is setting in Cutter has zip, zero, zilch, nada to do with temps in my world. 100% to do with storm track and that track is W of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You are correct...but 50s and rain for 6-8 hours in the warm sector is a valid option too. Why can't it be? You can't use the cold as an excuse because I just showed yesterday how it happened in one of the coldest months and in between the some of the coldest airmasses we've seen the past few decades. If we get closer and a more defined high pressure shows up north of ME, then I'll def hit the icier/triple point scenario...but right now we don't have that. The only piece of guidance I see that has the doomsday scenario you paint is the Euro. Maybe it's correct..but to see it already shifting from a 960 over BTV to weaker and east of KBUF tells us that wild, amped up sou easter option is probably not valid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't but the Euro solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro has been too amped up with systems in the medium range lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 weaker huh 0z shows 953mb as it crosses the US Canadian border The only piece of guidance I see that has the doomsday scenario you paint is the Euro. Maybe it's correct..but to see it already shifting from a 960 over BTV to weaker and east of KBUF tells us that wild, amped up sou easter option is probably not valid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Rain. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Personally I'm rooting for the big (unlikely) euro solution with the whole spv getting involved cause that would just be cool as hell. who cares about a torch at that point if we can see that and the ensuing arctic outbreak. Besides, its probably going to "torch" for a couple days either way within that 10th-15th time frame I agree. I'd rathter see that, than worry about perserving an entirely unerwhelming 8" of fluff. Doesn't seem plausible to get this biggie to fire up east, so... Sucks..this one $hits the bed, and that one cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You are correct...but 50s and rain for 6-8 hours in the warm sector is a valid option too. Why can't it be? You can't use the cold as an excuse because I just showed yesterday how it happened in one of the coldest months and in between the some of the coldest airmasses we've seen the past few decades. If we get closer and a more defined high pressure shows up north of ME, then I'll def hit the icier/triple point scenario...but right now we don't have that. sort of off topic, but that scenario kills me. how it can go from epic cold, then onto a rain storm, then back to cold is beyond me. i mean i know it is meteorlogically possible, but that doesnt help me accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The only piece of guidance I see that has the doomsday scenario you paint is the Euro. Maybe it's correct..but to see it already shifting from a 960 over BTV to weaker and east of KBUF tells us that wild, amped up sou easter option is probably not valid Well did you notice the 174 hr panel with 948mb over Quebec lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well did you notice the 174 hr panel with 948mb over Quebec lol?Lol no I didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol no I didn't Its quite the weather porno, with a ripping CCB over -28c isotherm in Southeast Canada...Thats just overwhelming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 @JimCantore: That system then quickly moves up the east coast for overnight snow Sunday into Monday morning for Mid-Atlantic & Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 @JimCantore: That system then quickly moves up the east coast for overnight snow Sunday into Monday morning for Mid-Atlantic & Northeast. Does it make you feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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