dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Maybe in his perfect world the cold undercuts the warmth aloft and he gets a trace of ZR? In his scenario a coating of snow accumulates in the upstairs master bedroom via the hole in the ceiling caused by the toppled trees. What a weenie...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 just bang the gefs i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Here we go a again ... and hits just keep on comin' EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1058 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013VALID 12Z FRI JAN 03 2014 - 12Z TUE JAN 07 2014A VERY WINTRY SCENARIO IN THE EAST STARTS OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WITH A QUICK WARM UP IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED AS A NEW AND SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY DAY 4/SATURDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY SUNDAY DAY 5. WITH LARGE UNCERTAIN IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR ON DAY 5 INTO DAY 6/MONDAY...WITH A HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM A FRONTAL PASSAGE TO A MAJOR CYCLONE. BY DAY 7/TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm a nerd ... so this is why I think so, but I am more blown away by the immensity of temperature swings the Euro is trying to sell us... -20C to +8C to -25C in like 72 hours... It's one thing to pull that off in the mountain with kadabatic this, and cold in the valley that... .but here we have synoptic scale push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the gfs was definitely a step in the european direction wrt Sunday-Monday...albeit it is much more realistic than the 940mb triple phaser. But honestly it wasnt too far away from showing the bomb...Its an 80s-esque arctic outbreak early next week behind it either way. then look out for the torrrrrrrrrrrrch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm a nerd ... so this is why I think so, but I am more blown away by the immensity of temperature swings the Euro is trying to sell us... -20C to +8C to -25C in like 72 hours... It's one thing to pull that off in the mountain with kadabatic this, and cold in the valley that... .but here we have synoptic scale push. Jan 16-19, 1994 had -30C at 850 over us, then a storm which produced +5C, and back to -30C at 850 over us after the storm. We're talking like -3 to -3.5 SD cold shots book-ending a storm that produced rain at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Jan 16-19, 1994 had -30C at 850 over us, then a storm which produced +5C, and back to -30C at 850 over us after the storm. We're talking like -3 to -3.5 SD cold shots book-ending a storm that produced rain at some point. That sounds like Leon to me!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ithaca got hammered on the 00z Euro. Just based on how rare it is for them to have a high-impact synoptic snow event, (Will, I think you can attest to this) I would say it's highly unlikely that track verifies. Of course that's not to say it won't be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Jan 16-19, 1994 had -30C at 850 over us, then a storm which produced +5C, and back to -30C at 850 over us after the storm. We're talking like -3 to -3.5 SD cold shots book-ending a storm that produced rain at some point. Right, I remember that, too -- I remember it was a blue tinted dawn with snow grains and flurries up at UML, 'bout 14F (though the low was actually colder). The forecast was for the bust out by evening. The temp rose like 1.25F per hour right through to dusk, when it finally touched 32F. Light snow had broken out at some point during the interim, but flipped to light ZR at around 30F, so we did get a couple hours of light glazing. I remember hitting the cafeteria for dinner 'round 7pm, and seeing the bushes outside the darked window had taken to a busy jostling, so something had come in... Sure enough, I walked out into the common yard and it was like 55F! I mean, vroom that came in in a hurry. The wind gusted over 30mph through midnight with occasional sheeting rains. Steam rolled off of snow banks. I learned then and there anything were possible in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Snowpack incinerater on the Euro...up through BUF with southerly flow and deep deep springtime dewpoints. We better hope the other guidance is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hideous. and not nearly as dynamic. just heavy rain/gusty south winds and temps in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nah, can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice call Scooter . I really thought your forecast wouldn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 man...release the hounds behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the super phaser has gone the way of friday's blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice call Scooter . I really thought your forecast wouldn't happen I didn't call anything. All I said was that it's a viable option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Leon will save us. 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well since we lost the big storm idea we'll have to wish this one east and triple point I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the super phaser has gone the way of friday's blizzard The later 2013/2014 version of the Euro is a higher resolution version of 2003's MRF. It has a fantasy storm in the long ranges for the history books almost every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Leon is now Rick James from 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think we can kind of see how the rest of this winter is going to go..For the snow pack fetish lovers like myself and Will..it's not going to be our year. It seems like we'll get these extreme cold periods and if timed right will get 1 or 2 decent snowfalls..and then an obnoxious cutter that really has no business happening will come along and wipe the ground to grass .maybe even into NNE at times...and then another surge of bitter air. Kind of reminiscent of the 80's. Def not going to be a prolific or epic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 How you know the Euro model has an agenda to bone winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just as an aside..how long is the torch on the Euro? Is it all day Sunday and Monday or just a short 8-10 hour window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think we can kind of see how the rest of this winter is going to go..For the snow pack fetish lovers like myself and Will..it's not going to be our year. It seems like we'll get these extreme cold periods and if timed right will get 1 or 2 decent snowfalls..and then an obnoxious cutter that really has no business happening will come along and wipe the ground to grass .maybe even into NNE at times...and then another surge of bitter air. Kind of reminiscent of the 80's. Def not going to be a prolific or epic winter still +/-75 days of winter left...i don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 still +/-75 days of winter left...i don't know. Well at the very least ..the talk of Leon Lett and 1994 should cease after this disaster. Maybe it's just me..but the thought of losing all the snow we're going to get the next 3 days tempers my enthusiasm somewhat for the storm. Don't get me wrong..I'm psyched for it..but it's like winning game 6 of the WS..already knowing your going to lose game 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well at the very least ..the talk of Leon Lett and 1994 should cease after this disaster. Maybe it's just me..but the thought of losing all the snow we're going to get the next 3 days tempers my enthusiasm somewhat for the storm. Don't get me wrong..I'm psyched for it..but it's like winning game 6 of the WS..already knowing your going to lose game 7. Or like the excitement of signing Jacoby Ellsbury only to realize the team will still miss the playoffs next year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hoping the GFS verifies. Driving up to SR Monday. Would be nice to get a solid 8-12" to kick off the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well at the very least ..the talk of Leon Lett and 1994 should cease after this disaster. Maybe it's just me..but the thought of losing all the snow we're going to get the next 3 days tempers my enthusiasm somewhat for the storm. Don't get me wrong..I'm psyched for it..but it's like winning game 6 of the WS..already knowing your going to lose game 7. Its not a lock we get wiped out from the 1/7 storm...some of the guidance keeps us colder and shows signs of CAD...even icier. The milder rainy scenario is definitely a legit possibility, but I'd wait until we get more support for it before mentally erasing your snowpack. Euro in the D6 range can certainly be argued to have been over-zealous with its storm development this season (and last). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's kind of early to assume a winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Its not a lock we get wiped out from the 1/7 storm...some of the guidance keeps us colder and shows signs of CAD...even icier. The milder rainy scenario is definitely a legit possibility, but I'd wait until we get more support for it before mentally erasing your snowpack. Euro in the D6 range can certainly be argued to have been over-zealous with its storm development this season (and last). Hope so. Scooter's trolling worked. Got me all bummed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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