Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[Cold Rain]

Ha!   I just call em as I see em!!  Overall we continue to be "in the game" probably into February, but franklin's right, at the moment we're stuck in a cold and dry pattern.  Hopefully the end of next week gets us out of the dry pattern. 

 

I just blew your mind....positive and negative....in one post!!!!!

 

I know it, and that's what I like.  There are those who lean optimistic (like me), there are those who lean pessimistic, and those who are more down the middle, which is probably the best way to be.  That's why I like it when the latter two groups start to get a little excited.  Now if we can get Widre onboard, we can lock it in!

[Buddy1987]

Nam continues the idea with the northern and southern stream idea on the 84 hr 12z nam at least with showing both streams having moisture. That clipper on the 12z by Cleveland looks strong on the 500 setup will that affect the northern stream from being able to dig?

[SnowNiner]

I don't pay attention too much to DT but in a facebook post talking about his busted storm amount forecast, he added this tidbit: 

 

4 Very ACTIVE PATTERN with MANY snoWstorm chances over next 45 days . The JET stream is going to SPLIT which will set up many chances of SOUTHERN stream Lows... coming up from the Gulf and NOT clipper Lows. Of course the issue then is TRACK and position to the coast .

 

VERY hopeful he's right.  He must be hugging the EURO and the southern stream interaction it's hinting at.  (He changed his avatar too to show a coastal LOW)

[franklin NCwx]

I don't pay attention too much to DT but in a facebook post talking about his busted storm amount forecast, he added this tidbit:

4 Very ACTIVE PATTERN with MANY snoWstorm chances over next 45 days . The JET stream is going to SPLIT which will set up many chances of SOUTHERN stream Lows... coming up from the Gulf and NOT clipper Lows. Of course the issue then is TRACK and position to the coast .

VERY hopeful he's right. He must be hugging the EURO and the southern stream interaction it's hinting at. (He changed his avatar too to show a coastal LOW)

I dont see a southern stream. Looks like a -pna coming up so we will have some atorms. Likely cutters.

[Brick Tamland]

We need something from the Gulf to give us a big dog.

 

Should we start a thread on the clipper chances for Monday?

[FLweather]

I agree Hickory. This week has alot of potential... not just that time frame any time durring the next week. Especially when it comes to the southern stream. Sometimes thats a whole different and poorly modeled animal itself. Its going to come down to prefect timing.

[Cold Rain]

I dont see a southern stream. Looks like a -pna coming up so we will have some atorms. Likely cutters.

I dunno...it doesn't look like a true, ugly and mean -PNA with the big trough in the west. That would be the worrisome scenario. On the other hand, it sorta looks like a split flow, with two distinct streams. But instead of the "southern" stream tacking through/along the Gulf, it looks more like it tracks through the middle/south half of the country.

We could get screwed, still, with systems tracking over us or north/west of us...definitely a possibility. But this type of pattern looks much stormier, though, with a heightened potential for damming and even a coastal or two, if things work out right. It certainly brings phasing into play -- a high risk/high reward kinda thing.

I kinda like the pattern...should be plenty to track, if the pattern verifies as depicted, which is always questionable.

[rduwx]

I apologize but I'm looking at NC in this analogy...The problem I'm seeing w/ the upcoming storm chances is the northern stream still being very active.  What I've noticed is we have energy coming across the southern jet and energy coming across the northern jet at the same time.  If these 2 pieces phase futher south, lets say Ga/SC border, then NC could get a great storm but if they phase off Delmarva then it becomes a great storm for MA/NE.  Just a thought.

 

EDIT:  I agree w/ Cold Rain that this pattern does appear to be more stormy!

[packbacker]

I dont see a southern stream. Looks like a -pna coming up so we will have some atorms. Likely cutters.

Agreed, although I could see TN/wNC getting lucky, we need to get good blocking whether it's a true -NAO or a perfectly timed 50/50, haven't had that this year and probably a long shot. Other thing we have to worry about is a miller B ala Jan 3rd. Euro has been bad with individual storms so has it's ensembles, wouldn't put much faith in those. Indiana to PHL to LGA to BOS are having great/epic winters, see no reason for that to change. The MA will finish well, as they always do.

[franklin NCwx]

Agreed, although I could see TN/wNC getting lucky, we need to get good blocking whether it's a true -NAO or a perfectly timed 50/50, haven't had that this year and probably a long shot. Other thing we have to worry about is a miller B ala Jan 3rd. Euro has been bad with individual storms so has it's ensembles, wouldn't put much faith in those. Indiana to PHL to LGA to BOS are having great/epic winters, see no reason for that to change. The MA will finish well, as they always do.

I think even with a negative nao and no southern stream we get cold and dry. I would much rather have an active southern stream and positive nao at this point. The lack of true southern stream energy is why we are below average in snow the last three years. When southern California starts getting rain thats when we should see some snow.

[Jon]

I dunno...it doesn't look like a true, ugly and mean -PNA with the big trough in the west. That would be the worrisome scenario. On the other hand, it sorta looks like a split flow, with two distinct streams. But instead of the "southern" stream tacking through/along the Gulf, it looks more like it tracks through the middle/south half of the country.

We could get screwed, still, with systems tracking over us or north/west of us...definitely a possibility. But this type of pattern looks much stormier, though, with a heightened potential for damming and even a coastal or two, if things work out right. It certainly brings phasing into play -- a high risk/high reward kinda thing.

I kinda like the pattern...should be plenty to track, if the pattern verifies as depicted, which is always questionable.

Yeah definitely looks like both the euro and gfs are hinting toward a split flow and a southern stream evolving the next couple days, but it's not going to be perfect for us but instead good for the NE to get roaring nor'easters that destroy them, good for DT, JB & co. We'll have to hope something stalls, taps the gulf, and we get lucky. But, we're headed toward a period where we won't have to rely on clippers...hopefully.

[Bevo]

I dunno...it doesn't look like a true, ugly and mean -PNA with the big trough in the west. That would be the worrisome scenario. On the other hand, it sorta looks like a split flow, with two distinct streams. But instead of the "southern" stream tacking through/along the Gulf, it looks more like it tracks through the middle/south half of the country.

We could get screwed, still, with systems tracking over us or north/west of us...definitely a possibility. But this type of pattern looks much stormier, though, with a heightened potential for damming and even a coastal or two, if things work out right. It certainly brings phasing into play -- a high risk/high reward kinda thing.

I kinda like the pattern...should be plenty to track, if the pattern verifies as depicted, which is always questionable.

 

I'd be more inclined to believe the Euro would see a split flow before the others. I'm not saying there will be - but that's the one area I give the ECMWF much more credit.

[Stormsfury]

The potential setup upcoming actually has garnered a little more interest, including WPC.  

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 25 2014 - 12Z WED JAN 29 2014

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...MODEL/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THERE IS BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL
BREAKDOWN AND SLOW MIGRATION OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS ALOFT
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE COMING WEEK. THIS
WOULD MAINTAIN THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN US THIS SEASON. A DEEP AND VERY COLD MEAN TROUGH
WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH
MID-CONTINENT MID-LEVEL NNW FLOW TO THE LEE OF THE ANCHORING WRN
NOAM RIDGE CARRYING A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL CLIPPER WAVES THAT CUT
SWATHS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ALONG A LENGTHY STORM TRACK FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND OUT ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST.

A FRESHENING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED SAT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US AND MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES IN CONJUCTURE WITH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT/LOWERERING HEIGHTS THAT WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLC/NEW ENG SUN...WITH AN ARCTIC SURGE
SPREADING SWD QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE.

YET ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED CLIPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THIS FLOW
FROM CANADA INTO THE US SUN WITH A FRESH ARCTIC CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER TRAILING ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO
SPREAD DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN US INTO MON.

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVE
BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE MODEL BLEND USING THE 06
UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET THIS WEEKEND CONSIDERING REDUCED
FORECAST SPREAD...AT LEAST ALOFT. PREFER TO TRANSITION TO A
SOLUTION LEANING HARD UPON THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC ECMWF EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AMID GROWING
FORECAST SPREAD. THESE GUIDANCE PIECES OFFER A BIT MORE PATTERN
AMPLITUDE OVERALL AND AT OFFER BETTER POSSIBILITY OF A DUG ENERGY
INTO THE BASE OF A THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AFFORDING SOME THREAT FOR
TRAILING FRONTAL LOW GENESIS/PCPN OUT FROM THE SRN/SERN US INTO
THE WRN ATLC THAT MAY PROVE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

SCHICHTEL

[FLweather]

Slow some of that southern stream moisture down ahead of the front dropping down this weekend(1/25) and NC,SC,GA maybe in business again with snow along the front. Things might change quickly in the next day or two. 

 

[FLO]

If those 2 meet is that what we want?

Slow some of that southern stream moisture down ahead of the front dropping down this weekend(1/25) and NC,SC,GA maybe in business again with snow along the front. Things might change quickly in the next day or two.

[FLweather]

 

 

If those 2 meet is that what we want?

 

 

Pretty much. The northern stream would squash any potential for a "big snow event". But it would help with moisture transport ahead of the front if it slowed down. Last nights cmc showed snow showers for NC haven't seen the new run yet. But with good RH as being shown the potential is there for light snow/showers for the northern half of GA,SC around 70-80 hours out. But that is the GFS ,NAM is much dryer.

[burgertime]

That is some crazy cold air making it's way into the south on the 12z Euro for next week. 

[teconnectivity2013]

That is some crazy cold air making it's way into the south on the 12z Euro for next week. 

What is it showing as far as temperatures.

[Wow]

That is some crazy cold air making it's way into the south on the 12z Euro for next week. 

 

Yes. -20C 850 temps knocking on the door.  Dry, dry, dry however.

[wxgeek]

I can only see out to 144, whats beyond that in the 12 Euro?

[burgertime]

What is it showing as far as temperatures.

 

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 20's for most of NC. 

[Wow]

I can only see out to 144, whats beyond that in the 12 Euro?

 

The Same

[Brick Tamland]

Yes. -20C 850 temps knocking on the door.  Dry, dry, dry however.

 

Is there a such thing as too cold for snow here? It seems like when it is that extreme it is always dry. But if we hover around 25 to 30 it gives us a better shot at some moisture coming with it.

[teconnectivity2013]

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 20's for most of NC. 

is it the same for upstate south carolina?

[wxgeek]

12z Euro looks to take take the 850 to -10 to the gulf coast

[Lookout]

Yes. -20C 850 temps knocking on the door.  Dry, dry, dry however.

-20c 850mb temps again into north ga (albeit barely) and of course a lot of nc. But I wonder how often 850mb temps have dropped to -20c in al/ga/carolinas twice in one winter, much less twice within just a couple of weeks? That has to be pretty rare. Not to mention that unlike the last time, the cold air aloft doesn't just zip out of here as fast as it arrived. It hangs around a good bit longer with -16c 850mb temps still around 24 hours later and -10 to -12c 850mb temps 48 hours later. That is some impressive cold for sure.

 

It shows lows going back into the single digits again but unlike the last time, the high is able to slide over head while we are extremely cold aloft. If folks recall, 850mb temps had risen significantly by the time the high was able to make it here. So if the euro is correct, I think there is a good chance lows will be colder this go around.

[HKY_WX]

-20c 850mb temps again into north ga (albeit barely) and of course a lot of nc. But I wonder how often 850mb temps have dropped to -20c in al/ga/carolinas twice in one winter, much less twice within just a couple of weeks? That has to be pretty rare. Not to mention that unlike the last time, the cold air aloft doesn't just zip out of here as fast as it arrived. It hangs around a good bit longer with -16c 850mb temps still around 24 hours later and -10 to -12c 850mb temps 48 hours later. That is some impressive cold for sure.

 

It shows lows going back into the single digits again but unlike the last time, the high is able to slide over head while we are extremely cold aloft. If folks recall, 850mb temps had risen significantly by the time the high was able to make it here. So if the euro is correct, I think there is a good chance lows will be colder this go around.

I agree, i think this shot on day 6 and 7 has potential to break many records. I was just browsing the euro ensembles, and the MEAN is even showing -25C 850's outside of the mountains.  This is combined with snowcover over much of the country, a much broader trough this go around, and HP overhead. I could see low temps near zero or below zero for many places outside of the mountains. This has been a truly historic January.

[dsaur]

Slow some of that southern stream moisture down ahead of the front dropping down this weekend(1/25) and NC,SC,GA maybe in business again with snow along the front. Things might change quickly in the next day or two. 

 

 

Slow some of that southern stream moisture down ahead of the front dropping down this weekend(1/25) and NC,SC,GA maybe in business again with snow along the front. Things might change quickly in the next day or two. 

 

Yep, I've been watching that.  Goofy wants like crazy to hold energy back in Texas, but the flow is so fast it confuses it, lol.  It's gone from a nebulas blob, of three stacked up short waves, heading toward S. America, to a bb slowing transiting the gulf, and across central Fla. to the above with moisture into Ga.  I got my only sleet and snow last year from just such a gulf occurrence.  I'm interested it what tonight's 0z portends.  Two or three days seems to be the limit of Goofy's future telling abilities these days.  Tony

[Buddy1987]

Boy idk if its just me but I really am feeling that 500 setup along with the surface setup on the GFS 153-159ish timeframe. I feel like something is about to explode on the GFS in a good way for the Southeast crew. Those charts are a smidge away from going kaboom. If we can get that thing to go negative just a tad faster..

[Cold Rain]

The pattern continues to look cold for at least the next 10 days, according to the Operational Euro and GFS solutions.  Looking at just the Ops, one could make the argument that a SE ridge, along with a bit of a -PNA might start to emerge.  But we've seen that show up before recently, and it hasn't panned out.  Also, it could be a transient feature.  Who knows.  But suffice it to say, the next 10 days will feature below to much below normal temps for a good portion of the SE.  I won't take away from Larry's thread by discussing specific storm chances here, but there are some.

 

The CPC teleconnections look pretty much the same with a +PNA giving way to a -PNA, the NAO staying mainly positive and the AO staying mainly negative, with a short spike into positive territory indicated.

 

The CFS (below for comparison with yesterday) for February continues to look colder and wetter as we move closer to the end of this month.  Again, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the actual pictures, but the trend is perhaps what's the most important thing.  It has trended colder.  That seems to line up with Don's thoughts in the main forum.

 

Regarding storm chances, I will say that a near miss-suppressed fantasy storm look at around 5 days out or so is a favorable place to be, in my mind.  That's what we have.  I'll take that all day long as opposed to that junk that was cutting west of the Apps earlier in the year.

 

Anyone with Ensembles, please weigh in on what the pattern looks like longer term.

 

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