Stovepipe Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Good to know that my "extrapolation" skills are not so bad.............lol. I'd cash in and not ask for anything else this winter if we can have that "look" verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The 12z Euro at hour 240 would be a significant snow storm for all of TN and north MS. The GFS has been toying around with a similar idea for several runs now as well. The period around the 17th - 20th has my attention. Yeah it is,3-6" N/MS..W and Mid/Tn is 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I thought it looked close. DT giving some hope in and around the southern apps. @DTVaWeatherman: 12z JAN 8 Op-EURO has APPALACHIAN snowstorm JAN 15- west NC sw VA all of WVA western MD & PA and west NY. GFS says Just cold front Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 On DT's FB page, he goes on to say that he's seeing strong signals that February & March could have above or much above snowfall for AR, TN, KY, & NC, etc. Take it for what it's worth..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Slow that S piece down some on the E/Esm fot the 15th storm and we might have something,lots of pieces though are spinning along along the trough.Storm is starting to look better anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 18z GFS has a version of the Saturday week storm, good for about 2 inches statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I thought it looked close. DT giving some hope in and around the southern apps. @DTVaWeatherman: 12z JAN 8 Op-EURO has APPALACHIAN snowstorm JAN 15- west NC sw VA all of WVA western MD & PA and west NY. GFS says Just cold front Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I have heard in the weather blogs that we should be headed into a pattern that favors snow and cold interior southeast going into January February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 The maps I see are pretty bad as far as the 12z euro goes. 24 hour panels suck. With that said, at hr 144 you have a 1006 low in the northern 1/2 of Alabama that strengthens to a 983 low in NH with cold air charging in to it somewhere along the way. Doesn't look like it would be a prolific snow producer, but if it started out in southern AL and deepened from there...........who knows?? Anyone have access to better Euro maps for this? Per the Euro, looks like a pretty good upslope event at 144. Also, the NAO is pretty low around that time frame. I would watch it based on the -NAO alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Well it's infinitely more interesting to me, if for no other reason, that its day 7 and not day 10.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 That was a particularly ugly run of the GFS in the LR. Maybe a few snow showers in Eastern Tennessee was about it winter wise next week. Coast to coast warmth in the long range. It's amazing that the West is going to be very much above normal but the cold doesn't really seem to move into the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 That was a particularly ugly run of the GFS in the LR. Maybe a few snow showers in Eastern Tennessee was about it winter wise next week. Coast to coast warmth in the long range. It's amazing that the West is going to be very much above normal but the cold doesn't really seem to move into the East. I am not even looking at the american modeling anymore, the GFS is out to lunch once again; every Winter it does this and has done the same thing this Winter; it suddenly loses the cold for a few days, then automagically, it returns, dont trust it, there is likely to be a big storm middle to end of month east of the MS River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I am not even looking at the american modeling anymore, the GFS is out to lunch once again; every Winter it does this and has done the same thing this Winter; it suddenly loses the cold for a few days, then automagically, it returns, dont trust it, there is likely to be a big storm middle to end of month east of the MS River The Euro sure seems to be more consistent with it's long range than GFS. 0z still shows potential for next Wednesday and Saturday. Hopefully it leads the way with sniffing things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Middle of next week system is poorly progged; I know, what a shock! GFS loses it as usual. What GFS shows is cold dry and starved of moisture. Euro, probably correctly, shows too warm for most of us. Upper Plateau and Upslope areas might get an inch of snow; otherwise, I don't see much but rain. Following weekend: Joe probably jumped on the phase monster too soon. The two biggest arctic outbreaks this year looked like that on Day 10, but both turned out mainly just cold. Day 10 NWP had shown two chunks of energy phasing "in parallel" in two separate streams. By Day 5-7 it showed two chunks of energy "in series" back-to-back in the same stream. Believe this Day 10 is heading that way. That is cold but no big storm for the South. Midwest can enjoy some more snow again. After Martin Luther King Day might offer another chance. This is just based on pattern recognition. West Coast ridge builds into the Rockies, with highest height anomalies Pac NW and weaker anomalies over Calif. Such a pattern opens the door for split flow with a southern stream out of the Baja. Also, perhaps more important, any strong northern stream short-wave bottoms out in the Lower Mississippi Valley and pivots in the Deep south. Such a track is more favorable for the Valley than the recent Texas bottom out lifting over the Mid South. However the ideal would be west to east from Texas through the Deep South; and, I'm not sure that happens without -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Middle of next week system is poorly progged; I know, what a shock! GFS loses it as usual. What GFS shows is cold dry and starved of moisture. Euro, probably correctly, shows too warm for most of us. Upper Plateau and Upslope areas might get an inch of snow; otherwise, I don't see much but rain. Following weekend: Joe probably jumped on the phase monster too soon. The two biggest arctic outbreaks this year looked like that on Day 10, but both turned out mainly just cold. Day 10 NWP had shown two chunks of energy phasing "in parallel" in two separate streams. By Day 5-7 it showed two chunks of energy "in series" back-to-back in the same stream. Believe this Day 10 is heading that way. That is cold but no big storm for the South. Midwest can enjoy some more snow again. After Martin Luther King Day might offer another chance. This is just based on pattern recognition. West Coast ridge builds into the Rockies, with highest height anomalies Pac NW and weaker anomalies over Calif. Such a pattern opens the door for split flow with a southern stream out of the Baja. Also, perhaps more important, any strong northern stream short-wave bottoms out in the Lower Mississippi Valley and pivots in the Deep south. Such a track is more favorable for the Valley than the recent Texas bottom out lifting over the Mid South. However the ideal would be west to east from Texas through the Deep South; and, I'm not sure that happens without -NAO. Your thoughts are very much appreciated Jeff, thanks for checking in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 What a nice miller a track on the cmc for day 5. O yea no cold air again to go with the great surface low track. Looks like the trough from the pna will be too far east to deliver a storm. We need a southern stream and a -nao would help too. Im tired of all this northern stream garbage. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Nothing too exciting on the 12z Euro for the TN Valley. Transient shots of cold air but when precip arrives the surface is too warm for any snow chances outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It still builds a great PNA ridge, but deposits the largest piece of energy and closes it off in the southwest. If that doesn't go there and comes out instead, we likely have a midsouth snowstorm on our hands IMO. Looks like the 12z Euro kind of moves toward the GFS in the longer range though. Losing the western ridging pretty quickly with a lot of energy out west. Lots of lower pressures around the Aleutians, perhaps the ensembles will hold the ridging in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Same fears as yesterday good pna ridge with troygh too far east. Pattern is too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I just noticed the 12z GGEM synched everything up for a nice fantasy storm next Saturday. That'll change a thousand times, but here's what it looked like just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I posted the euro ensembles in the southeast thread. Winter stays in the east with plus pna centered on the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 That would be a beautiful thing, but I'm not ready to jump on board for anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 well hello there, GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 If you were dealt these "cards" for the upcoming pattern, but you could not look at a wx model...would you take 'em if you live in the East? NAO PNA AO Me? You bet. Seem to signal a storm mid-month in the East, at the very least a cold pattern. The 12z Euro and 18z GFS all seem to have some near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS once again looks meh in the long range, snow showery in the medium, and rainy in the short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Not only is the 0Z Fri Euro quite cold for the SE US in the 6-10 (much below with many highs 30's-mid 40's for well inland cities), but it is showing snow for parts of the SE with 1"+ snow in much of E TN, most of NC, and far NE GA and NW SC Wed/Thu 1/15-16! The heaviest area of manly 4-6" is over N NC and extends from superjames' home in the GSO area westward into the mountains. HKY is just south of the heaviest but still gets a good 3-4". Charlotte gets 2" and Asheville 3". Brick's abode gets ~2". Far NE GA and NW SC get ~1". The E 1/3 of TN gets 1-4" including 2-3" at Stovepipe's/Mr. Bob's residences and 1-2" Chat.. Ironically, this was supposed to be during the heart of a blowtorch period just a few days ago! Wow, have things changed for mid Jan! The models have been pretty bad overall and too warm in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Thanks for stopping by Larry and giving us the euro synopsis. Always enjoy reading your posts. Hopefully we can get something widespread at some point so that many in the southeast can enjoy a little taste of winter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS once again looks meh in the long range, snow showery in the medium, and rainy in the short. Yea, I would not trust the GFS at this point, heck, I wouldnt trust any model past three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 While the recent GFS runs seem to be rather moisture starved, it does look like the cold shots are a bit more substantial and sustained. I'm keeping one eyebrow raised as I watch the Euro and GGEM, they're off and on about something materializing around Wed and again around Sat of next week. That coupled with Don Sutherland seeing good things in the tarot cards has me mildly optimistic at this point about snow chances mid month and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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