tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Larry Cosgrove is also bullish, leaning on the Euro ensembles. I took a look at the mean ensemble and don't see a big reason to be bullish as the trough axis is a bit too far east for my liking. I'd rather see that ridge on the west coast anchor itself instead of gradually pushing east. Time will tell, meanwhile, back at the ranch, we have a light snow opportunity coming at us that is under the 136 hour time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro 0z output for KTRI - for the little event next Wednesday. Of course without more detailed information, I can't tell how much of the .25 falls as snow. Same for TYS, except it looks the surface is an issue there until the very end. TRI WED 18Z 15-JAN 0.0 -6.4 1018 85 99 0.25 541 526 THU 00Z 16-JAN -3.3 -9.1 1021 86 83 0.14 538 522 TYS WED 12Z 15-JAN 0.5 -4.9 1017 99 100 0.17 542 528 WED 18Z 15-JAN 0.7 -7.2 1020 88 98 0.17 538 522 THU 00Z 16-JAN -2.3 -10.1 1022 78 48 0.05 537 520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro 0z output for KTRI - for the little event next Wednesday. Of course without more detailed information, I can't tell how much of the .25 falls as snow. Same for TYS, except it looks the surface is an issue there until the very end. TRI WED 18Z 15-JAN 0.0 -6.4 1018 85 99 0.25 541 526 THU 00Z 16-JAN -3.3 -9.1 1021 86 83 0.14 538 522 TYS WED 12Z 15-JAN 0.5 -4.9 1017 99 100 0.17 542 528 WED 18Z 15-JAN 0.7 -7.2 1020 88 98 0.17 538 522 THU 00Z 16-JAN -2.3 -10.1 1022 78 48 0.05 537 520 Each of the last three GFS runs (including 12z today) have ratcheted up the snow for east TN for this event. 12z shows 1-3 with TRI in the sweet spot of 4. Smells like a dusting to me but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS got a little wetter anyways and colder.BNA disco this morn. said the Nashville could get .5 to 2",i'm sure that was based on the Euro and the 2" would be the Cumberland and .5 Nashville.Hopefully we keep seeing trends our way for a change.You guys in the E might get surprised especially the orographic areas like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 12z GFS carves out a nice trough at hour 165 that lasts until truncation. Nary a speck of moisture to be found in the southeast, but that is the coldest look it's shown in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 12z GFS carves out a nice trough at hour 165 that lasts until truncation. Nary a speck of moisture to be found in the southeast, but that is the coldest look it's shown in awhile. Need it slow down or carve more.Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 @WxSouth: increasing chance of Apps to East Coast Snow event next Wed-Fri. More Arctic Cold comes south On the edge of our subforum I suppose. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 We either need the pac ridge to retrograde further west or we need some blocking over Greenland. Its just not gonna happen otherwise. Without one or the other, it will be rinse/repeat with coldfronts, northwest flow, and then cool rain as the cold air departs and the gulf opens up. If the ridge retrogrades just a bit and the core of the cold startsdumping into OK and AR, and stalls out, we can do pretty well (at least those of us east of the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That (PNA) is the biggest concern in my eyes Jmundie.......I have noticed the trend on the ensembles is to be progressive with any PAC ridging that does form. (Looks great for a brief period and then kind of craps the bed). If it doesn't remain in place most of our state would be cool/cold and dry in a northwest flow before warming again. I have been hoping to see signs of a stable ridge (goodness knows it keeps wanting to develop out that way, thanks to the SSTs in the North Pacific), but it appears the progressive nature of things is still hurting any BIG potential. Still no signs of significant blocking in the Atlantic. I am not discounting the day 5-6 threat at all, and I hope we can score from that, but the overall look on the ensembles through 240 is just kind of "bleh" to me........ At this point, I'd probably disagree with JB and DT in saying Feb will be rocking in the SE. Still plenty of time, but I am not optimistic we don't stay progressive with very little, if any help from the dismal Atlantic. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 12z GGEM has two little clipper storms back to back Wednesday-Thursday. Maybe good for an inch or two as modeled for much of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This system has had my eye for a few days now - its really close to being perfect but a bit too warm. Trend has been colder the past 48 hours for sure though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The PNA looks great on the euro at 12 Z hour 168 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The PNA looks great on the euro at 12 Z hour 168 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk moves east too progressive. Trough does not dig very much. Good for New England not us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 One way to slow down the progression, albeit briefly, would be to have a strong vorticity diving into the base of the trough, from the northern plains to the western gulf. Obviously this far out any vorts would not be readily seen. But it wouldn't take much to give us a period of amplification and a slowed progression at the base of that trough. JMO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 What a difference two days makes in NWP! Day 10 Euro drops this bomb which essentially ends winter by Day 11-12. No, I don't really believe it but it is funny how models swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 What a difference two days makes in NWP! Day 10 Euro drops this bomb which essentially ends winter by Day 11-12. No, I don't really believe it but it is funny how models swing. Jeff, Thanks for your input. I really enjoy reading your brief blurbs in our subforum. I was thinking... Even if we take that map verbatim, Is it really all that bad or just more of the same ...... meaning a progressive flow? (warm for a couple, cool for a couple, cold for a couple- rinse and repeat ) I can certainly see the terrible Atlantic (its been as consistent as the Alaskan vortex from the last two years), but the ridging would likely reassert itself if there is such a deep low (as projected) in the Aleutians. Canada doesn't look nearly as cold, but everything I see on that map (even if in jest) screams a continued progressive pattern. The question is......do we EVER slow it down a bit with any blocking in the Atlantic?? And when I say ever; I mean before Feb 15th or so....? lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Jeff, Thanks for your input. I really enjoy reading your brief blurbs in our subforum. I was thinking... Even if we take that map verbatim, Is it really all that bad or just more of the same ...... meaning a progressive flow? (warm for a couple, cool for a couple, cold for a couple- rinse and repeat ) I can certainly see the terrible Atlantic (its been as consistent as the Alaskan vortex from the last two years), but the ridging would likely reassert itself if there is such a deep low (as projected) in the Aleutians. Canada doesn't look nearly as cold, but everything I see on that map (even if in jest) screams a continued progressive pattern. The question is......do we EVER slow it down a bit with any blocking in the Atlantic?? And when I say ever; I mean before Feb 15th or so....? lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'll be interested in hearing what the 12z Euro ensembles have to say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 It's a very different weather pattern than the last two years but I'm still having to do the same thing to get snow, rely on upslope/clippers. At one time Clippers were golden for the Eastern half of Tennessee for 2-4 inches. Now they don't usually do very much outside of elevated terrain. I last year I ended up with 13 inches of snow, 2 from synoptic snow when points East and South did a little better and got 3-5. Then 9 from Clippers and upslope. Then 2 more from synoptic snow in spring when it turned cold. Biggest snow was 4.5 inches from a Clipper on Super Bowl weekend. Hopefully this clipper/upslope pattern we're going to be in at times over the next 10 days can produce some more widespread accumulations. I know that even Chattanooga got an inch from the Super Bowl weekend system last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 From JKL. IN DEALING WITH THE GENERAL LONGWAVE PATTERN...IT SEEMS THAT BYWEDNESDAY...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS AGREES ON A BROAD TROUGH SETTINGUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE OHIO VALLEY SET UP IN A NORTHWESTFLOW AND NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN A CLIPPERTYPE UP. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING...PIN POINTING THEARRIVAL TIME OF EACH SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND MESOSCALE EFFECTS ISSOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT. DO AT THIS POINT SEE THAT THEMAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE THREAT OF NUMEROUS ROUNDS OFSNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS BELOWNORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TAP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THEWEEKEND. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE INDICES SUPPORT THISTHINKING OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THE PNAWITH A JUMP TO A +1 VALUE BY MID JANUARY...WHICH INDICATES A STRONGTROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Even though it's 4-5 days away, most of the regional forecast offices are feeling pretty good about this event bringing snow to most of the area. From the Tennessee river areas of West TN, NE Miss, N.Ala and points East and North, all are mentioning snow, and BNA, MRX and JKL are all mentioning accumulations are possible. So this is looking like a good chance that it's going to be a southern and western tracking clipper vs one that mainly effects N.KY/Ohio and maybe clips SE KY and NETN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Even though it's 4-5 days away, most of the regional forecast offices are feeling pretty good about this event bringing snow to most of the area. From the Tennessee river areas of West TN, NE Miss, N.Ala and points East and North, all are mentioning snow, and BNA, MRX and JKL are all mentioning accumulations are possible. So this is looking like a good chance that it's going to be a southern and western tracking clipper vs one that mainly effects N.KY/Ohio and maybe clips SE KY and NETN The Euro and it's esm are quite different with the thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The Euro and it's esm are quite different with the thermals Can you elaborate please? Seems like pretty decent agreement among the three main models with regards to the setup (I've not seen the Euro ensembles). Thickness, 850 temps, and track look good. With the marginal surface temps it may come down to the time of day this hits as to where and how much the accumulations are, outside of elevated areas of course. Also looks like there is potential for multiple vorts to come rolling through over a 2 or 3 day time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Can you elaborate please? Seems like pretty decent agreement among the three main models with regards to the setup (I've not seen the Euro ensembles). Thickness, 850 temps, and track look good. With the marginal surface temps it may come down to the time of day this hits as to where and how much the accumulations are, outside of elevated areas of course. Also looks like there is potential for multiple vorts to come rolling through over a 2 or 3 day time period. 850 are +8 over the valley on the esm the Euro is -4 almost, the 2m's are warmer as well, i'm looking at h 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 850 are +8 over the valley on the esm the Euro is -4 almost the 2m's are warmer as well, i'm looking at h 102 Thanks for the details bud. It's notable that the 18z GFS's long range is looking better compared to what it's been showing the past several days. Seems like there could be a number of snow chances for the TN Valley in January. Nothing to sink our teeth into this far out but the improved look is welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Thanks for the details bud. It's notable that the 18z GFS's long range is looking better compared to what it's been showing the past several days. Seems like there could be a number of snow chances for the TN Valley in January. Nothing to sink our teeth into this far out but the improved look is welcome. I can live with that,we can't get snow with a torch.I saw this as well about the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/will-the-polar-vortex-return/21894749 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Looking at the strat on the Euro 12z today wave 1 at 70hpa is building really nicely day 10.Temp max is at -36 C at 55 N and 172.5 N.The PV is taking on big time damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That's bold 360 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Not sure what happened to the GFS.But it's just lost outside 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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