Stovepipe Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 West TN could squeeze out another snow/ice event Thursday according to the 12z GFS. Cold air takes its time moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That was part if my disco from yesterday. I feel really good (in a bad way) that there will be an ice skating rink somewhere in TN (west and middle most likely) at some point next week. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 As we have discussed for two to three days, an icing/snow event is possible on return flow late next week. The ingredients are there. Huffman mentioned it on Twitter today. Until this cold air is in place, will be tough to tell specifics. Any TN Valley location is at risk. The 12z is further south with its wave that rides the retreating cold air boundary. We have discussed how rare ice is west of the Apps, but the 12z is how you draw it up. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The Canadian @ 180 appears to have energy rotating under the cold and pops a very weak slp along the coast. Saw where Wow was mentioning to watch the southern stream on the 12z GFS. Anyway, the Canadian is sniffing things out it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The Canadian @ 180 appears to have energy rotating under the cold and pops a very weak slp along the coast. Saw where Wow was mentioning to watch the southern stream on the 12z GFS. Anyway, the Canadian is sniffing things out it appears. The 12z GGEM out to 174 sure looks like a crippling ice storm to me for at least West TN. Tons of moisture. Good call on having something to watch for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 12z GGEM out to 174 sure looks like a crippling ice storm to me for at least West TN. Tons of moisture. Good call on having something to watch for that time period. Don't look now, but the 12z Euro @ 144 is showing an icy event for eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and extrapolated out, west Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Don't look now, but the 12z Euro @ 144 is showing an icy event for eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and extrapolated out, west Tennessee. Certainly and I think a good shot for northern and esp northeastern TN too..I don't think the airmass recovers that quickly so it is all rain to start except for Chatt...maybe Knox starts as a mix...an ugly morning commute on that Thursday if it the precip gets in quick enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 These temperatures are going to challenge to be the lowest since early February 96 also...pretty impressive cold shot these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If the models are correct that event next week will prob at trend colder, even at 850. Might be a decent snow to ice scenario with incredibly low dew points and evaporation cooling doing its dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Basically the same setup for Sunday with the exception of a stronger system as today's,but either way going through Memphis without cold air in place won't do the job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z GFS trending toward an icy event late next week. Temps appear to warm to quickly. Could happen that way, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 +PNA ridge pattern appears to continue throughout the 16 day forecast with minimal blocking in the Atlantic and troughs to varying degrees in the East. Bet when we have a legit threat, we don't see it until we are within 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like the weeklies that came out tonight,crap.No real change until after the 20th after the next possible ice storm.Hopefully we see change before hand. Edit:Get ready for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I wouldn't be upset at all if winter left after the 10th and came back the last 10 days of the month. If we could somehow score some blocking, we'd be in a good spot at a good time. We haven't really had a GREAT look (wrt a winter storm) to this point, so maybe a reset is needed. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This business next Thursday is looking better in terms of a blast of snow for a large chunk of TN on the 0z GFS. I know it's a week out and will change many times but I'm interested to see how that is going to play out with the crazy cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This business next Thursday is looking better in terms of a blast of snow for a large chunk of TN on the 0z GFS. I know it's a week out and will change many times but I'm interested to see how that is going to play out with the crazy cold air in place. EPO is starting to go = around the 16th and seeing the GFS getting colder it's been hinting at it the last couple runs and around the 17th it's showing some -30 2m's again N of us,maybe it's a sign the NAO is fixing to go down hill,time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This business next Thursday is looking better in terms of a blast of snow for a large chunk of TN on the 0z GFS. I know it's a week out and will change many times but I'm interested to see how that is going to play out with the crazy cold air in place. The snow Sunday night into Monday has disappeared somewhat on the GFS but it'll probably come back. I anticipate the event Sunday night to be just as potent as this one, if not a little stronger. If we got snow tonight, I don't see why we won't get it Sunday. Plus, consecutive snowstorms have a tendency of riding a little further south each time, too. Temps on the 00Z GFS are trending below 0F in Knoxville. That's ridiculous cold Knoxville hasn't seen in some time. If we get just an inch or two of snow then below zero is going to be likely. If we get more, then the temps go lower. Most of the big daddy below zero nights Knoxville have had had some decent snowcover to them. Thursday looks more like an ice to rain event for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looking over extreme cold events in January for East Tennessee since the 1960s, they seem to follow a very similar pattern. In years when Knoxville records a January low below 5 degrees, February almost never records a low below 10 degrees. If Knoxville records a low below 5 degrees before January 10th, it often does again later in the month of January. This is just temperature specific. Snow, some heavy, has fallen in February in years where January had major Arctic surges. It just didn't bring extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Long term, the cold shows hints of returning (prob not extreme) the last third of the month. Since the NAO has gone slightly negative, it is struggling to return positive according to the CPC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 CPC ensembles show a negative NAO. As suspected, it is having a hard time going positive upon entering negative range. PNA is mainly positive. The AO is wildly positive and negative. Moral to this story, the cold appears to be coming back sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12z GFS is showing a nice ULL trekking through southern TN. It kind of dampens out before it really gets to the valley at around 186 but I would keep an eye on it. In this pattern you guys would probably do really well with an ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12z GFS is showing a nice ULL trekking through southern TN. It kind of dampens out before it really gets to the valley at around 186 but I would keep an eye on it. In this pattern you guys would probably do really well with an ULL. I have keeping an eye on this as well burger. Most recent runs of the GFS really kept our trough positively tilted and then it would string it out. 12z gave us a two contour cutoff and it is massive. But we here west of the mountains need this cutoff to create its own cold air because there ain't none real close unless this thing slows way down. That would be tough to do in this progressive pattern we've been stuck in lately. The only thing that is certain is that the gulf will be wide open and our wet pattern continues. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 At least the NCEP CFS gives a good southern snow look by the end of the month........and into early Feb. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 At least the NCEP CFS gives a good southern snow look by the end of the month........and into early Feb. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hey man, are those images available on the free sight or are they pay per view only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I hijacked the image from JB's twitter. Not sure where he gets it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I hijacked the image from JB's twitter. Not sure where he gets it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Thanks man. I'm guessing it's a Weatherbell image then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Great Pacific, horrible Atlantic. We. Need. Blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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